United Liberty

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) has not given up hope of passing an energy bill this year, likely in a lame-duck session, even though cap-and-trade is dead:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Tuesday a nationwide renewable-electricity standard, or RES, is “absolutely” in the mix as he tries to salvage energy legislation this year — possibly in a lame-duck session.

Before the August recess, Reid said he doubted an RES — which would require utilities to provide escalating amounts of power from sources like wind and solar energy — could win 60 votes. It was left on the cutting-room floor when Reid unveiled a modest energy bill in late July.

But Reid told reporters on a conference call Tuesday the energy bill is still a work in progress and cited two Republicans who have expressed interest in an RES. He did not name them.

Renewable energy, such as wind, isn’t not necessarily cost-effective, though I’m sure it appeals to rent-seeking businesses and allows Democrats to play like they are creating “green” jobs.

Speaking of Harry Reid, his opponent, Sharron Angle, is out with a new ad that deserves a watch. It’s being called a “game changer” by the National Journal:

The Las Vegas Review-Journal is taking issue with Sen. Harry Reid, who is locked in a tough battle for re-election with Sharron Angle, and his latest ad:

In his zeal to buy the votes he needs to beat Republican challenger Sharron Angle, Sen. Reid pushed though legislation that sends $10 billion in borrowed money to school districts dealing with revenue shortfalls. Nevada’s share of that loot amounts to $83 million, with the Clark County School District set to get $54.2 million.

Santa Harry assured Nevadans that this money would spare teachers from layoffs and classrooms from further cuts.

“Fourteen-hundred teachers and school workers facing September layoffs,” one of Sen. Reid’s newest TV ads tells voters. “Then Harry Reid got emergency aid to keep them teaching.”

The ad is intended to highlight “the 1,400 education jobs that are no longer on the chopping block thanks to $83 million in emergency funding Sen. Reid delivered” to Nevada, Reid campaign spokeswoman Kelly Steele wrote in a news release last week, attacking GOP challenger Sharron Angle for being dismissive of the funding.

But Sen. Reid’s side of the story isn’t the slightest bit true.

It appears that the NRA will not endorse Sen. Harry Reid in his bid for re-election against Sharron Angle, which has been relatively close in the polls:

The National Rifle Association announced Friday it would not endorse Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in his bid for a fifth term, a surprising setback for the majority leader, who has enjoyed a longstanding working relationship with the nation’s most influential gun rights group.

NRA Chairman Chris Cox cited Reid’s votes in favor of confirming Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor as pivotal to the group’s decision.

“The vote on Elena Kagan’s confirmation to the Court, along with the previous year’s confirmation vote on Sonia Sotomayor, are critical for the future of the Second Amendment. After careful consideration, the NRA-PVF announced today that it will not be endorsing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for reelection in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Nevada,” Cox wrote in a statement.

Cox noted that the NRA “strongly opposed” Kagan’s confirmation and made it clear that Reid’s votes would contribute toward his score. This spring, during her confirmation hearings, some conservatives were irked by an unearthed statement Kagan made as a Supreme Court law clerk, in which she said she was “not sympathetic” toward a man who claimed his constitutional rights were violated when he was convicted for carrying an unlicensed handgun.

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, the polling and election guru, predicts that Republicans will pick up six or seven seats in the Senate, putting them just a few seats shy of the number needed to take control of that chamber:

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

It appears that Sen. Lisa Murkowski may lose a primary challenge to Joe Miller by 1,492 votes (though that total may change as two precincts are outstanding):

Just when you thought it was safe for incumbents to go back in the polling booth, along come Tuesday’s Republican primaries. GOP Members of Congress who think they can return to business as usual if they regain the majority should pay attention.

The biggest shock came in Alaska, with incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski trailing unheralded challenger Joe Miller by roughly 2,000 votes with as many as 16,000 absentee ballots still to be counted. As a West Point grad, decorated Gulf War veteran and federal magistrate, Mr. Miller is no lightweight. But he was facing one of Alaska’s great family names, part of the GOP establishment that has dominated the state since it joined the union.

Though heavily outspent, Mr. Miller was helped by former Governor Sarah Palin’s endorsement and especially by Ms. Murkowski’s failure to understand the anti-Washington mood. When he asked Senator Murkowski in a debate which part of the Constitution permitted Roe v. Wade and bank bailouts, she responded that the nation might suffer if the government only funded things explicitly authorized by the Constitution. Bad answer.

Ms. Murkowski opposed ObamaCare but Alaskans punished her for her 2009 refusal to rule out a government-run health-care plan. She is learning the lesson that ousted Utah Senator Bob Bennett did: GOP voters don’t want their representatives to negotiate with President Obama. They’re looking for people who can defeat his agenda.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

House of Representatives

With Republicans expected to make gains, anywhere from 25 seats to taking control of the House (40+ seats), we thought we’d put together a list of the more competitive races, so you can get an idea of who is in trouble.

Below is a list of the 92 most competitive House seats. We used Rothenberg Political Report and Real Clear Politics to determine what races should be listed.

We’ll link polling as they come available.

In an effort to keep you up to date on the upcoming mid-term elections, we’ve put together a list of the most vulnerable seats in Congress. This page contains the seats up for election in the United States Senate. Click here to view vulnerable or toss-up seats in the House of Representatives.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

United States Senate

Republicans are expected to do well in the House of Representatives (you can view House races below) with current projections showing control of that chamber up for grabs. The Senate has been overlooked, for the most part. Though prospects for a Republican takeover are unlikely, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Democrats currently hold 59 seats in the Senate, including two independents that caucus with them. Republicans hold 41 seats. There are 37 seats up for grabs this year, of those 17 are competitive.

The first table shows the competitive seats, races that pollsters and analysts generally consider to be worth watching or seats that there is an expected switch in party control.

Competitive Senate Races

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has filed paperwork to start a Capitol Hill Tea Party Caucus, according to Minnesota Public Radio:

“The American people are speaking out loud and clear. They have had enough of the spending, the bureaucracy, and the government knows best mentality running rampant today throughout the halls of Congress. This caucus will espouse the timeless principles of our founding, principles that all Members of Congress have sworn to uphold,” Bachmann stated. “The American people are doing their part and making their voices heard and this caucus will prove that there are some here in Washington willing to listen.”

Rand Paul, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, has also floated the idea, likely including Mike Lee and Sharron Angle as well as fiscally conservative senators like Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC), but some of his possible colleagues are cool to the idea:

So who wants to join Rand Paul’s “tea-party” caucus?

“I don’t know about that,” Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) replied with a nervous laugh. “I’m not sure I should be participating in this story.”

Republican lawmakers see plenty of good in the tea party, but they also see reasons to worry. The movement, which has ignited passion among conservative voters and pushed big government to the forefront of the 2010 election debate, has also stirred quite a bit of controversy. Voters who don’t want to privatize Social Security or withdraw from the United Nations could begin to see the tea party and the Republican Party as one and the same.

Sharron Angle (R) and Sen. Harry Reid (D) are in a tight race in Nevada. The latest Rasmussen survey shows Reid closing in at 43% with Angle at 46%.

Angle is going to need every bit of help she can get between now and November, even from the dead…and I don’t mean voter fraud. As weird as this is a recently deceased woman doesn’t want flowers, she wants her friends and family to vote against Harry Reid (emphasis mine):

Michael Gerson, who served as a speechwriter for George W. Bush, is worried about the rise of libertarianism in the Republican Party:

The Republican wave carries along a group that strikes a faux revolutionary pose. “Our Founding Fathers,” says Nevada Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle, “they put that Second Amendment in there for a good reason, and that was for the people to protect themselves against a tyrannical government. And in fact, Thomas Jefferson said it’s good for a country to have a revolution every 20 years. I hope that’s not where we’re going, but you know, if this Congress keeps going the way it is, people are really looking toward those Second Amendment remedies.”

Angle has managed to embrace the one Founding Father with a disturbing tolerance for the political violence of the French Revolution. “Rather than it should have failed,” enthused Jefferson, “I would have seen half the earth desolated.” Hardly a conservative model.

But mainstream conservatives have been strangely disoriented by Tea Party excess, unable to distinguish the injudicious from the outrageous. Some rose to Angle’s defense or attacked her critics. Just to be clear: A Republican Senate candidate has identified the United States Congress with tyranny and contemplated the recourse to political violence. This is disqualifying for public office. It lacks, of course, the seriousness of genuine sedition. It is the conservative equivalent of the Che Guevara T-shirt — a fashion, a gesture, a toying with ideas the wearer only dimly comprehends. The rhetoric of “Second Amendment remedies” is a light-weight Lexington, a cut-rate Concord. It is so far from the moral weightiness of the Founders that it mocks their memory.