Senate Election 2010
If you’ve been following the race for United States Senate in West Virginia between Gov. Joe Manchin and John Raese, you’ve probably heard about the latest poll from Public Policy Polling that shows:
- Manchin: 50%
- Raese: 44%
- Undecided: 6%
The problem here is, once again, the details of the polling. Below is the party ID breakdown from the last four public polls for which the information is available.
- Public Policy Polling (Oct. 25): 55/35/11
- Rasmussen (Oct. 20): 48/35/17
- Public Policy Polling (Oct. 12): 55/33/12
- Rasmussen (Oct. 6): 45/38/17
- 2008 Exit Poll: 48/34/19
- 2006 Exit Poll: 51/32/16
- 2004 Exit Poll: 50/32/18
As you can see, there is reason to take this poll with a grain of salt, much like the last poll that Public Policy Polling produced in this race. To believe this, you would have to believe that the Democratic Party’s base is motivated within the state to levels in hasn’t been within the last three cycles.
Dick Morris needs to shut up.
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, Larry Sabato, issued some insightful tweets on October 2nd that have gone largely ignored by many Right Wing Pundits, including Dick Morris.
1:15 PM Oct 2nd: Some GOP leaders need a refresher course in basic campaign strategy. Predicting R House pickups of +60, +80, +100 is just plain dumb.
1:17 PM Oct 2nd: (1) It isn’t going to happen;(2) It induces overconfidence;(3) If Rs win a narrow majority or just fall short, big gains look like a loss.
1:18 PM Oct 2nd: You’d think after all this time, people would’ve caught onto the polling game & wouldn’t take polls so seriously. And you’d be wrong.
Meanwhile, Dick is still out there claiming that the GOP will pick up 60+ seats in the house and regain control of the Senate as well.
Prediction: The Republicans will win the Senate, capturing seats in Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Washington state, Illinois and Nevada. And they could prevail in New York, Connecticut, Delaware and California to boot.
The GOP will capture the House by a goodly margin, winning upward of 60-plus seats now held by Democrats. And it could go a lot higher!
To be clear, any combination that includes either a new Speaker of the House and or a New Senate Majority leader will be a victory for the GOP. But predicting a sixty seat pick up in the house is not only silly, it sets up the Democrats with tools they need to marginalize their defeat.
Hoping your opponents continue to screw up is no way to run a political campaign, but Republicans across the Country have to wonder what they did to deserve a field of Democratic opposition that is so uniformly hapless, and led by a President so tone-deaf to public sentiment. While it is still too early to begin measuring drapes for new offices on Capitol Hill, every single piece of available data, every trend, and all of history indicate that November 2 will be a “wave” election that washes Democratic incumbents out to sea and out of power.
First, history: The party that’s not in the White House almost always gains seats in Congress –that’s nearly axiomatic. A 39 seat net gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives is as certain as anything can be 64 days before an election, though a similar, takeover-sized gain in the Senate is not as certain. Second, the data: Nearly every poll conducted in August shows a clear majority of the country feels the nation is on the wrong track, while a mere third (or less) believe that we’re headed in the right direction. President Obama’s job approval rating is abysmal: 54.5% disapproval to 38.7% approval –and that’s just among independents! Mr. Obama can take comfort in the fact that while his numbers are bad, America hates Congress even more. Current polls show more than 71% of the people disapprove of Congress, while less than 20% approve.
Showing leadership in putting pro-market, liberty-oriented candidates in Washington, Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) have endorsed Mike Lee in his bid for the GOP nomination for United States Senate in Utah.
The Senate race in Utah is turning out to be a bit of a battle within the Republican Party, with one side, the establishment Republicans, supporting Tim Bridgewater and more conservative Republicans backing Mike Lee.
Because neither candidate was able to win 60% of the delegates at the Utah Republican Party’s convention, the top two candidates, Lee and Tim Bridgewater, will face-off in a primary on Tuesday, June 22nd.
McClintock, who ran against Arnold Schwatzenegger for Governor in 2003 and now represents the California 4th district in Congress called Lee “a true Constitutional Conservative,” adding:
Utahans need someone who won’t simply say no, but who will actively work to turn back the tide of big government. The American people are desperately looking for leaders who will stop taxpayer bailouts, protect individual liberty, reduce taxes and restore Constitutional principles to Washington - Mike Lee is that leader. Sending Mike to the Senate would not only be a victory for Utahans, but for all Americans.
In his press release, Dr. Paul said,
The GOP will be watching the U.S. Senate race in Georgia very closely this year. Johnny Isakson, disliked by many Republican voters, is expected to win the election in November and return to the U.S. Senate for another six years.
In the past few years, Georgians have been awakened to Isakson’s liberal tendencies, but they are scared to vote against him. No viable candidate will challenge Isakson in a primary election, and he will win the general election because voters refuse to vote for a non-Republican out of a fear of being represented by a Democrat.
Isakson has spent his time in Washington – even his time in the Senate during the Obama administration – working to increase government spending and to justify the continued growth of our federal government. Johnny Isakson is clearly not a good choice for the conservative voter.
There is a conservative on the ballot this year, his name is Chuck Donovan. He wants to cut spending, reduce our federal debt, and limit our financial obligations. I am convinced he would work tirelessly, without compromise, to meet these goals.
Not too many years ago, the GOP had a chance to stand against big government and increased spending. That opportunity was squandered by the likes of Isakson, which caused them to lose the majority in Washington. If we vote to re-elect those that wasted their opportunity to limit government the first time around, how ludicrous is it to think they will do better if given another opportunity?
I suppose I wouldn’t be much a of a political blogger if I didn’t comment on the Scott Brown election. It’s certainly the hottest topic in politics today and will have implications on policy and action in Washington until November. In order to take a closer look at the real story behind the election, I’ll turn to the data. Rasmussen Reports conducted exit polling last night and I’ve broken down some of the results in the table below.
Source: Rasmussen Reports
It’s coming down to the wire in Massachusetts. Scott Brown and Republicans can sense victory. While Martha Coakley and Democrats are scrambling to fix a terrible run campaign and a serious flawed and unappealing candidate.
Coakley, who is trailing Brown in her own internal polling, continues to make gaffes. Embarrassingly calling baseball great Curt Schilling, who is campaigning for Brown, a Yankee fan. For those of you not up on baseball, Schilling pitched for the Boston Red Sox from 2004 to 2007 and led them to World Series victories in 2004 and 2007 (who forgets the infamous bloody sock?). A huge mistake in the heart of the Red Sox Nation.
I’ve been called a lot of things… [b]ut never, and I mean never, could anyone ever make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn’t know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could.
On the heels of a poll showing Rand Paul with a 19 point lead over Trey Grayson for the GOP nomination for United States Senate in Kentucky comes another survey showing both Republicans with modest leads over their potential Democratic opponents, Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo.
Rand Paul v. Jack Conway
- Paul: 42%
- Conway: 36%
- Not sure: 22%
Rand Paul v. Dan Mongiardo
- Paul: 42%
- Mongiardo: 36%
- Not sure: 22%
Trey Grayson v. Jack Conway
- Grayson: 40%
- Conway: 33%
- Not sure: 27%
Trey Grayson v. Dan Mongiardo
- Grayson: 44%
- Mongiardo: 35%
- Not sure: 21%
According to a press release that came across last night, Rand Paul will also make his entrance into the race official by filing his paperwork with the Kentucky Secretary of State’s office.
According a new SurveyUSA/WHAS poll, Rand Paul is leading Republican establishment candidate Trey Grayson.
- 32% Grayson
- 35% Paul
- 2% Johnson
- 1% Oerther
- 3% Thoney
- 10% Other
- 18% Undecided
Cross tabs are available here.
As we mentioned a few days ago, the Republican establishment in Washington is getting behind Trey Grayson over Rand Paul in the primary for United States Senate in Kentucky.
On September 23rd, more than half the Republican caucus in the Senate will host a $500 per plate dinner on behalf of Grayson.
KentuckyFight.com (see the ad on the right) is looking to gather 5,000 liberty-minded folks to give $100 each on the same day to send a message to the elites in Washington, DC.