United Liberty

The Cheneyites are nervous:

Senior Republicans in Kentucky and Washington D.C. are deeply concerned about Senate candidate Trey Grayson’s campaign as he struggles to narrow the gap against GOP primary rival Rand Paul.

Two months before the election, the libertarian-leaning Paul, son of the Texas congressman and quixotic presidential contender, has tapped into anti-Washington grass-roots fervor on the right and staked out an advantage over Grayson, Kentucky’s secretary of state and establishment favorite.

There have been few polls in the race, but an automated survey earlier this month showed Paul leading by double digits. Even Grayson backers acknowledge that their candidate is lagging, if not as badly as the public polls indicate.

A win by Paul, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist, would represent the first true electoral success of the tea party movement. Equally important, it would embarrass Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose political organization is running Grayson’s campaign, thrust onto the national stage a Republican with foreign policy views out of the conservative mainstream and, strategists in both parties believe, imperil the GOP’s hold on the seat now held by retiring Sen. Jim Bunning.

Recognizing the threat, a well-connected former aide to Vice President Dick Cheney convened a conference call last week between Grayson and a group of leading national security conservatives to sound the alarm about Paul.

“On foreign policy, [global war on terror], Gitmo, Afghanistan, Rand Paul is NOT one of us,” Cesar Conda wrote in an e-mail to figures such as Liz Cheney, William Kristol, Robert Kagan, Dan Senor and Marc Thiessen

Rand Paul: Not A Neo-Con Warmonger.

The commercials write themselves.

The latest survey the Republican primary for Florida’s Senate seat shows Marco Rubio leading Gov. Charlie Christ by 32 points, according to Public Policy Polling:

Rubio now leads Crist 60-28, including a staggering 71-17 lead with conservatives. Crist has a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but they account for just 31% of likely primary voters compared to 65% who describe themselves as conservative.

Rubio is benefiting from a widely held sentiment among Florida GOP voters that Congressional Republicans are too liberal and that Crist would add to the problem. 41% of them think that the party leadership in Washington is too liberal, and with those folks Rubio holds an 83-10 lead. 50% think that Crist himself is too liberal and with those voters Rubio’s advantage expands even wider to 90-5.

If Crist, who has a 56% disapproval rating among Republicans, were to decide to run for re-election, he would also be trailing Bill McCollum, the GOP frontrunner in that race.

As has been pointed out by pundits, the only way Crist can win is to switch parties or run as an Independent, which he has said he would not do.

Rasmussen is out with new polling in Kentucky showing Rand Paul and his primary opponent, Trey Grayson, with double-digit leads over potential general election match-ups with Democrats, Daniel Mongiardo and Jack Conway.

Rand Paul v. Daniel Mongiardo

• Mongiardo: 34%
• Paul: 51%
• Other: 3%
• Not sure: 12%

Rand Paul v. Jack Conway

• Conway: 34%
• Paul: 49%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 13%

Grayson also polls well against Conway and Mongiardo, but not as well at Paul.

Opposition to health care is an issue that is hurting the two Democrats, as 53% of likely voters strongly oppose ObamaCare. Voters are also not very kind to President Barack Obama on the issue, as 58% disapprove of his handling of health care.