Ron Paul

Romney, Palin even in Ohio; Obama leads GOP candidates

You know how the Republican candidates are doing nationally, but what really matters are state-level voters. And Quinnipiac has new numbers out of Ohio, a crucial swing state in nearly every election, showing Mitt Romney statistically even with Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann isn’t too far behind.

  • Mitt Romney: 16%
  • Sarah Palin: 15%
  • Michele Bachmann: 11%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 6%
  • Ron Paul: 5%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Undecided/NA: 28%

As you can see, the top four are well in striking distances of each other; and this assumes that Palin even gets in the race. They did poll scenarios of Palin and Perry not running, but for sake of confusion, I’m going to leave those off the post. You can see them here.

Quinnipiac also measured Romney, Palin, Bachmann and Perry against Obama, in the state. Even though though 50% of Ohio voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance, Palin would be a disaster and Bachmann isn’t too far behind her (numbers for independents are off to the side).

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 45% (40%)
  • Romney: 41% (41%)
  • Other: 3% (4%)
  • Undecided: 9% (11%)

Barack Obama v. Sarah Palin

  • Obama: 51% (51%)
  • Palin: 35% (32%)
  • Other: 3% (4%)
  • Undecided: 6% (6%)

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

  • Obama: 49% (45%)
  • Bachmann: 36% (35%)
  • Other: 3% (4%)
  • Undecided: 9% (11%)

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

WaPo/ABC poll: Romney still holds advantage in GOP race

While Michele Bachmann has certainly picked up steam in the race for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney is still holds a double-digit lead over her in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Here’s how it shapes up:

  • Mitt Romney: 26%
  • Sarah Palin: 16%
  • Michele Bachmann: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 9%

But like many of the polls we’ve seen over the last several weeks, they tested the Republican field with and without Sarah Palin. The first set is without her running and with Rick Perry’s likely candidacy.

  • Mitt Romney: 30%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Ron Paul: 11%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 6%
  • Jon Huntsman:3%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

This second set includes Palin, but leaves off Perry:

  • Mitt Romney: 28%
  • Sarah Palin: 19%
  • Michele Bachmann: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 10%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

The poll shows strong numbers in terms support for Romney, but it also has points of concern for his campaign as noted in the Washington Post’s report on the poll:

Romney, Bachmann remain in the front of the GOP field

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann continues to gain on, and in at least one instance surpass, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in national polling, which is largely useless given that we’re dealing with state caucuses and primaries to determine delegates for presidential candidates. However, these polls do offer us, as I’ve noted before, a sense of where Republican voters are right now.

The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Romney still leading, but Bachmann picking up more support since their last poll:

  • Mitt Romney: 30%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Rick Perry: 11%
  • Ron Paul: 9%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%

Cain has dropped off substantially from the last NBC/WSJ poll; he was at 12% and is now at 5%. They also left Sarah Palin out of this poll, it’s like her support gets divided between Bachmann and Perry.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, also polled the race recently under two scenarios; with and without the presence of Sarah Palin.

Here is how the race shapes up with Palin:

  • Mitt Romney: 20%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Sarah Palin: 12%
  • Rick Perry: 11%
  • Herman Cain: 10%
  • Ron Paul: 9%
  • Newt Gingrich: 6%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Other/Undecided: 10%

And without Palin:

Ron Paul hits the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who announced earlier this week that he wouldn’t run for another term in Congress, launched a six-figure airtime buy in Iowa and New Hampshire with an ad that is reminiscent of a movie trailer that criticizes Republicans for compromising on the debt ceiling.

Another poll in Iowa shows Bachmann leading, national viability remains a big question

While I’m not convinced Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s biggest threat to the Republican nomination, she continues to show that she may steal the show in Iowa. According to yet another poll out of the Hawkeye State - this one conducted by American Research Group, Bachmann leads Romney by a small margin among likely caucus-goers.

  • Michele Bachmann: 21%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Ron Paul: 14%
  • Sarah Palin: 11%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Rick Santorum: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty:
  • Other: 2:
  • Undecided: 10%

The poll also notes:

Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among registered Republicans. Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among those saying they will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican caucus. And Bachmann leads Romney 30% to 7% among those saying they are supporters of the Tea Party.

Ron Paul leads Romney 24% to 23% among no party (independent) voters, with Sarah Palin at 15% and Bachmann at 2%. Paul leads Romney 22% to 20% among probable caucus goers, with Bachmann at 14% and Palin at 12%.

Romney leads Bachmann 31% to 11% among likely caucus goers saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows Bachmann picking up steam as well, though that doesn’t come a surprise. We haven’t paid much attention to national polls lately, but given how the field is shaping up, here is a look at how Republican voters are going.

Press Release: Ron Paul Issues Statement on Rumored Debt-Ceiling Scheme

This was sent out on late in the evening on Friday (July 8). While Speaker John Boehner has backed away from a deal that involves tax hikes, it’s still worth posting.

Today, 2012 Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul issued a statement strongly opposing a proposed deal on the debt-ceiling that is rumored to be in the works between the Obama administration and Republican House leaders. See statement below.

“Sources in Washington tell me that House Republican Speaker John Boehner is considering a deal to raise taxes as part of a debt limit ‘deal.’

“In fact, reports are they may be ready to cave in to Barack Obama’s demands for a trillion dollars in tax increases in exchange for mostly phony spending and tax cuts in order to raise the debt ceiling.

“House Republicans would be foolish to go for this ploy and be taken in by the Obama administration, only to leave American taxpayers on the hook again for more out-of-control government spending.

“The Democrats pulled a similar maneuver during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, a deal that promised 2 to 1 spending cuts in exchange for tax increases. Taxes went up, but the cuts never came. They did it again in 1990, promising much the same deal, and delivering only on their tax increases.

“In Washington, if you hear about a so-called deal, you can be sure the taxes will come, but the cuts never will.

“Republicans cannot take the bait and get fooled again.

“This is exactly why I was the first Presidential candidate to sign on to the Cut, Cap, and Balance Pledge — because we cannot continue to steer our country down this road to ruin with a massive federal budget and unchecked spending. We need to change course right now.

“Agreeing to this scheme by the White House would be a betrayal of the voters who put Republicans back in charge of the House in 2010.

Bachmann pulls ahead in Iowa

At the end of last month, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Iowa. But a new poll from the Des Moines Register shows Bachmann with a slight lead - though still within the margin of error, a month ahead of the Ames Straw Poll.

  • Michele Bachmann: 25%
  • Mitt Romney: 21%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 9%
  • Herman Cain: 9%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%

The poll shows that 76% of Republicans in Iowa have a favorable view of Bachmann, 66% are favorable of Romney. Gingrich, however, doesn’t fare so well as 52% have an unfavorable view of him; by far the worst in the poll.

Pawlenty, who is viewed favorably by 60% of Iowa Republicans, saw a bump from the last poll. This state is where many observers feel he has to make a stand in order to even stay in the race. That’s likely why he lobbed a shots against Bachmann over the weekend, noting that she has no real record of accomplishment.

This isn’t important just because Pawlenty is knocking a rival, but also because if Bachmann can’t pull ahead of Romney, she may decide to run for re-election in what has been a fairly competitive district. Those comments could become fodder by a Democratic opponent.

Rand Paul heads to Iowa for Ron Paul

It’s not a surprise to see Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) headed to Iowa to stump for his dad, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who is seeking the GOP presidential nomination:

Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky will head to the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa later this month to campaign for his father’s bid for the White House.

The younger Paul’s Iowa swing will come just before the Ames, Iowa, straw poll. GOP Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third run for the presidency, is putting a lot of money and effort into doing well in the crucial straw poll.

This is the first time Rand Paul will campaign for his father since Ron Paul formally announced his run for president May 13. But the senator did stump for his father during swings through Iowa and New Hampshire, the first in the nation primary state, earlier this year before the elder Paul announced his candidacy.
[…]
The Paul presidential campaign told CNN the two men will not appear together during Rand Paul’s events in Iowa. The elder Paul is holding campaign events in Marshalltown and Cedar Falls, Iowa Wednesday.

“Rand Paul’s message strikes a strong chord with the Tea Party here in Iowa,” said Drew Ivers, Ron Paul’s Iowa chairman, in a statement. “His message of stopping out of control federal spending is exactly what the Republican party needs at this time.”

Polls out of Iowa show Dr. Paul pulling anywhere between 6% to 8% of the primary vote, around middle of the pack in the state. His campaign recently managed to secure the best booth at the Ames Straw Poll, which will be held next month.

Romney still on top in New Hampshire, Bachmann gaining

Two new polls out of New Hampshire show a tightening race between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who is now being seen as the anti-Romney in the race for the GOP nomination.

The tightening that I referenced isn’t seen on the surface in the poll from the University of New Hampshire; however, Bachmann polled at 4% in the Granite State last month, so she is up 8 points. Romney fell off 6 points, from 41% since last month.

  • Mitt Romney: 35%
  • Michele Bachmann: 12%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Sarah Palin: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Newt Gingrich: 1%
  • Gary Johnson: 1%
  • Other: 2%
  • Undecided: 19%

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based Democratic polling firm, shows the gap between Romney and Bachmann now down to a single-digits; the closest any GOP competitor has been in the state.

Why make a deal on the debt ceiling when you could just listen to Ron Paul?

As House Republicans prepare to make a deal on the debt ceiling with the White House, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) is offering a solution that is receiving some praise from The New Republic, a publication ordinarily hostile to libertarianism:

Representative Ron Paul has hit upon a remarkably creative way to deal with the impasse over the debt ceiling: have the Federal Reserve Board destroy the $1.6 trillion in government bonds it now holds. While at first blush this idea may seem crazy, on more careful thought it is actually a very reasonable way to deal with the crisis. Furthermore, it provides a way to have lasting savings to the budget.

The basic story is that the Fed has bought roughly $1.6 trillion in government bonds through its various quantitative easing programs over the last two and a half years. This money is part of the $14.3 trillion debt that is subject to the debt ceiling. However, the Fed is an agency of the government. Its assets are in fact assets of the government. Each year, the Fed refunds the interest earned on its assets in excess of the money needed to cover its operating expenses. Last year the Fed refunded almost $80 billion to the Treasury. In this sense, the bonds held by the Fed are literally money that the government owes to itself.

 


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