United Liberty

Gary Johnson, a former two-term Governor of New Mexico, has formally protested his exclusion from next Monday’s debate in New Hampshire hosted by firing off a letter to CNN and other sponsors noting that other past candidacies that started without much national attention or support gained by being included in debates:

The Gary Johnson for President campaign has been overwhelmed over the weekend with phone calls and emails all asking the same question: How is it that Governor Johnson is being excluded from the June 13 New Hampshire presidential primary debate?  Of course, they are asking the wrong people.

Having heard nothing to the contrary from you, the debate sponsors, we assume the decision not to invite Governor Johnson was based upon your “objective” polling criteria.  Certainly, you have to apply criteria.  We get that.  However, the idea that inclusion – or exclusion – from a critical debate in a critical state will be based entirely upon polling arithmetic, seven months before a single vote is cast, is not only absurd, but counter-intuitive to the very purpose of a debate.

According to his campaign website, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) raised over $1.1 million in the June 5th money bomb. An impressive showing for what I believe is Paul’s second million dollar fundraising event of his campaign.

Paul’s team decided to took a shot at Mitt Romney, who is generally seen as the frontrunner of the Republican field, as the theme of the money bomb; the “rEVOLution vs. RomneyCare.” Paul’s staff noted Romney’s fundraising success since he was able to secure $10 million in commitments during a “call-a-thon.”

Whatever, they’re doing on the fundraising side, they’re doing it right. Let’s just hope that that successful translates into votes.

CNN and a couple of New Hampshire news outlets will be hosting a debate for Republican presidential hopefuls on Monday, June 13th. Unfortunately, Gary Johnson, who served two terms as Governor of New Mexico, is being excluded; according to a blog post on his campaign’s website on Friday:

CNN, WMUR, and the New Hampshire Union Leader will host a presidential debate on Monday, June 13th in Manchester. Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul will participate. In addition, unannounced candidates Michelle Bachmann and Rick Santorum will also take part.

Gary Johnson, however, will not participate. Why? Because he wasn’t invited.

This morning, we learned along with the rest of world that CNN and the other debate sponsors have decided to exclude Governor Johnson from sharing your voice in the debate.
[,…]
In the latest Gallup poll, released one week ago, Governor Johnson’s level of support registered at 3% nationally. This is competitive with candidates like Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum, both of whom have been invited to participate. In fact, I’m not aware of a poll in which Mr. Santorum has out-polled Governor Johnson nationally.

We first heard about this debate from numerous supporters in New Hampshire excited to see Governor Johnson take part. Those supporters assumed that Governor Johnson was invited.

Mitt Romney made it official yesterday in Stratham, New Hampshire. He’s running for the Republican nomination for president:

Mitt Romney officially stepped into the 2012 presidential race here Thursday by casting himself as the one Republican with the skills to heal the ailing U.S. economy and rein in Washington’s runaway spending.

The former Massachusetts governor, betting that a pitch focused tightly on the economy will resonate with a broad swath of voters, kicked off his second presidential campaign by trumpeting his record as a turnaround specialist in business and as head of the 2002 Winter Olympics. Romney also unleashed a broadside against President Obama, charging that he “has failed America.”

“Turning around a crisis takes experience and bold action,” Romney said. “For millions of Americans, the economy is in crisis today, and unless we change course it will be a crisis for all of us tomorrow.”
[…]
“I am Mitt Romney, I believe in America, and I’m running for president of the United States,” he said, with a 250-year-old white barn and American flags behind him.

The first poll out of Iowa in over a month was released yesterday by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. It shows Mitt Romney holding a lead in two different scenarios; with with Sarah Palin running and the other with her sitting it out.

• Mitt Romney: 21%
• Sarah Palin: 15%
• Herman Cain: 15%
• Newt Gingrich: 12%
• Michele Bachmann: 11%
• Tim Pawlenty: 10%
• Ron Paul: 8%
• Jon Huntsman: 0%
• Other/Undecided: 8%

Romney’s support has increased from 16% to 21% since the last time Public Policy Polling surveyed the field in Iowa. But Palin’s support increased as well, from 8% to 15%. She, however, is tied with Herman Cain for second in the field. Also, note that Huntsman’s support came in at 0%. Public Policy Polling explains that he received one vote in the survey. That’s not a good sign.

But if Palin decides to sit out the race, Romney’s support increases slightly. Gingrich and Bachmann put themselves in a statistical tie for second with Cain, who doesn’t receive much a bump with Palin’s absence.

• Mitt Romney: 26%
• Herman Cain: 16%
• Newt Gingrich: 15%
• Michele Bachmann: 14%
• Ron Paul: 11%
• Tim Pawlenty: 10%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other/Undecided: 8%

Cain is concentrating his efforts in the state to prove that he can compete, although some believe he isn’t showing much ability to raise the money nor the organization necessary to make a serious run for the nomination.

The Ames Straw Poll, which will measure a candidates strength in Iowa, will be held on Saturday, August 13th (that’s this summer). The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday, February 6, 2012.

Republican hopeful Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota, has released a new video, which is geared towards the early caucus state of Iowa, to promote his campaign:

Like it or not, Iowa is going to be the focal point of Republican politics for the next several months. We’re going to try to follow all the news coming out. I know there is a poll, though from a Democratic firm, that should be released later today; if it hasn’t been already.

On the heels of the recent Gallup poll in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, CNN put out numbers on Friday showing a different dynamic in the race; Rudy Giuliani, who is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney:

• Rudy Giuliani: 16%
• Mitt Romney: 15%
• Sarah Palin: 13%
• Ron Paul: 12%
• Herman Cain: 10%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Michele Bachmann: 7%
• Tim Pawlenty: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Gary Johnson: 1%
• Buddy Roemer: n/a
• Someone else: 3%
• None/No one: 5%
• No opinion: 2%

Here is the field without Giuliani:

• Romney: 19%
• Palin: 15%
• Paul: 13%
• Cain: 11%
• Gingrich: 11%
• Bachmann: 7%
• Pawlenty: 5%
• Huntsman: 3%
• Santorum: 2%
• Johnson: 2%
• Roemer: 1%
• Someone else: 3%
• None/No one: 6%
• No opinion: 2%

And without Giuliani and Palin:

• Romney: 21%
• Paul: 15%
• Cain: 13%
• Gingrich: 12%
• Bachmann: 9%
• Pawlenty: 5%
• Huntsman: 3%
• Santorum: 3%
• Johnson: 2%
• Roemer: 1%
• Someone else: 5%
• None/No one: 9%
• No opinion: 2%

Assuming Giuliani doesn’t run, Romney is still the frontrunner. However, Paul is making an impressive showing in these early polls. It’ll be interesting to see if he runs a similar strategy of picking up enough second and third place finishes in early primary states to earn enough delegates to be contender. It’s likely that Palin or Giuliani enter the race, but probably not both.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is expected to announce his entry into the race for President on June 5.  MSNBC.com has described Santorum as a “long-shot”, and that’s an understatement.  Like Newt Gingrich, Santorum has been out of office for a while.  That usually means a loss of name recognition, no recent experience to run on, and backers have an tendency to find new horses to put their money on.

However, the GOP field isn’t bristling with front-runners right now, so Santorum could step in and make a splash with strong showings in Iowa and/or New Hampshire.  A good showing there can mean the difference further on down the line.

That said, it’s unlike Santorum will make that splash.  I expect he’ll be out fairly quickly and return to private life.  However, I figure his campaign will have a much, much longer shot than Newt’s since Santorum isn’t know for being as gaff prone as Gingrich.

Oh, this will be a race to behold.  Anyone else going to pop some popcorn as we wait for the trainwreck election?  I know I am!

Over at the Volokh Conspiracy, Ilya Somin has laid out the case for Gary Johnson over Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) in light of Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) exit from the race:

Turning to the issues first, the difference between the two is strikingly large. As I explained back when Paul ran in 2008, he has very nonlibertarian positions on free trade, school choice, and especially immigration. He also believes that Kelo v. City of New London was correctly decided because he thinks the Bill of Rights does not apply to the states. The latter is theoretically compatible with being a libertarian; one can believe that the Constitution should protect us against various forms of oppression by state governments, but simply fails to do so. But Paul’s position is at odds with most modern research on the original meaning of the Fourteenth Amendment, and with the views of virtually all libertarian constitutional law scholars. It also bodes ill for the nature of his judicial appointments in the unlikely event that he actually wins the presidency.