Ron Paul

VIDEO: Ron Paul on “Fox News Sunday”

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) appeared yesterday on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace to discuss everything from FEMA and bureaucracy to Libya and foreign policy:

Candidates set for Politico/NBC News debate

The candidates have been set for the debate, sponsored by Politico and NBC News, on September 7th at Ronald Reagan Presidential Liberty in Semi Valley, California. According to the press release from Politico, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have all confirmed for the debate.

Unfortunately, Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter have been excluded; although they did include Jon Huntsman, who is barely registering some polls.

The debate will air live on MSNBC at 8pm on Wednesday, September 7th. We’ll probably be live-blogging it here.

Here is the full press release from Politico.

Candidates Announcement for September 7 Debate


New national numbers released in GOP presidential race

Polls have been flying out like crazy since Rick Perry got into the race for the Republican nomination for president. Gallup and Public Policy Polling have released numbers pairing several different Republicans against President Barack Obama. We also got our first look at post-Ames numbers out of Iowa.

Rasmussen was the first to post numbers showing that Perry had jumped ahead of Romney, but one poll isn’t definitive. But Gallup and Public Policy Polling released new national numbers yesterday in the Republican field showing that Rick Perry is, for all intents and purposes, the new frontrunner.

Here’s the poll from Gallup:

  • Rick Perry: 29%
  • Mitt Romney: 17%
  • Ron Paul: 13%
  • Michele Bachmann: 10%
  • Herman Cain: 4%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Other: 2%
  • No preference: 17%

Public Policy Polling has somewhat different results. Unlike Gallup, they show Bachmann in the top three and Paul in the middle of the pack.

  • Rick Perry: 33%
  • Mitt Romney: 20%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 6%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Rick Santorum: 4%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Other/Not sure: 5%

And if Palin runs:

Another poll shows Ron Paul competitive against Obama

While Public Policy Polling left him out of the Republican candidates they polled against Barack Obama (and oddly included Herman Cain, who is polling low in the GOP field), Rasmussen released a poll yesterday showing Ron Paul just 1 point down from the president.

Barack Obama v. Ron Paul

  • Obama: 39%
  • Paul: 38%
  • Other: 14%
  • Undecided: 8%

Rasmussen also matched Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and 2008 GOP nominee for Vice President, against Obama. She didn’t fare so well, trailing by 17 points to our increasingly unpopular president.

This is the second poll this week to show Ron Paul competitive against President Obama. In case you missed it, Gallup released polling on Monday testing four GOP candidates against Obama. Ron Paul came within 2 points. Don’t look for this to be reported or anything, the media is too busy covering Jon Huntsman.

Why Paul needs to win the GOP primary

Yes, by now you know that I like Ron Paul.  First and foremost, I’m actually pulling for Gary Johnson, but Johnson just hasn’t gotten any traction yet while Paul has it.  With that laid out, there’s a very good reason why Republicans need to take a look around and recognize that not only can Ron Paul be their nominee, that’s actually a good thing for the GOP.

First, we must understand that while polling shows Democrats overwhelmingly supporting President Obama at this point, he’s not particularly beloved by his base right now.  They see a lot of what he’s done as caving, they see a lack of leadership, and they’re generally not happy with him as a president.  The primary reason they’re going to head out next November is to keep the GOP nominee from winning.

Now, take Ron Paul.  I spoke with a couple of die hard Democrats after Paul appeared on Piers Morgan’s show.  One, who had lost a beloved dance teacher to a self administered abortion, was slightly alarmed that Paul was pro-life.  However, as he also deferred it to the state level, she was able to move on with it.  That was the whole of their difficulties with Paul as a candidate.

I’ll be the first to admit that it’s hardly a large sample group, but it doesn’t really have to be.  A Ron Paul presidency doesn’t terrify many Democrats like a Romney, Perry, or Bachmann presidency does.  This is important, since I pointed out that Democrats are far more likely to come out to vote against the GOP nominee than to vote for Obama.

Public Policy Polling: Romney does the best against Obama

Since I got a little long-winded in the post on the new poll out of Iowa, I thought the head-to-head matchups between a handful of GOP candidates and President Barack Obama also released yesterday by Public Policy Polling probably deserved their own separate thread.

The numbers aren’t too far off from what Gallup released on Monday. Mitt Romney does the best against Obama, though tied in this poll. Everyone else, including Rick Perry, is trailing Obama outside the margin of error.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 45%
  • Romney: 45%
  • Other/Don’t know: 10%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 49%
  • Perry: 43%
  • Other/Don’t know: 8%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

  • Obama: 50%
  • Bachmann: 42%
  • Other/Don’t know: 8%

Barack Obama v. Sarah Palin

  • Obama: 53%
  • Palin: 40%
  • Other/Don’t know: 8%

Barack Obama v. Herman Cain

Rick Perry leads in first post-Ames poll out of Iowa

The first post-Ames numbers were released yesterday via Public Policy Polling. Consequently, this also the first poll out of Iowa since Rick Perry formally got in the race for the GOP nomination.

As you could have probably guessed, Perry has overtaken Michele Bachmann as the favorite in the state while Mitt Romney comes in a close second (all three of them are within the poll’s margin of error).

  • Rick Perry: 22%
  • Mitt Romney: 19%
  • Michele Bachmann: 18%
  • Ron Paul: 16%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Other/Not sure: 5%

And with Palin in the race:

  • Rick Perry: 21%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Michele Bachmann: 15%
  • Ron Paul: 12%
  • Sarah Palin: 10%
  • Newt Gingrich: 7%
  • Herman Cain: 6%
  • Rick Santorum: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Other/Not sure: 4%

The poll should serve as a shot of reality for Bachmann. Yeah, she won the Ames Straw Poll, but her support was soft. And while I heard Erick Erickson say yesterday that Romney was diverting resources to Iowa, this poll really makes me doubt that (or at leas the wisdom in doing so).

Perry and Bachmann have essentially the same base - conservatives and tea partyers - and they, according to this poll, make up 40% of the GOP’s base in Iowa. These are voters that were already skeptical of Romney and are unlikely to suddenly support him if their candidate were to drop out. Add in Cain and at least some of Paul’s supporters (I presume that a significant number of them would back Johnson or another conservative candidate or just not vote), and the conservative/tea party vote is well over 50%.

Paul rakes in $1.8 million during birthday money bomb

This was mentioned during the weekly GOP Presidential Power Rankings yesterday, but Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) raised over $1.8 million in a birthday money bomb over the weekend (I only mention it again because the totals are finally in):

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) raised $1.8 million in 24 hours between Saturday and Sunday, a major online money bomb timed to coincide with his 76th birthday. This is the fourth time Paul has raised more than $1 million in a day this campaign cycle, and a signal that he will have the money to compete as long as he wishes for the Republican presidential nomination.

The big haul came despite a cyberattack during the same time period that shut down Pauls website for a few hours.

Paul had more than $4 million in the bank at the end of June, and besides this raised another $600,000 in a day for fundraising for the Iowa straw poll, in which he finished a close second behind Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.). Paul spent about a half million dollars on the straw poll.

With the aforementioned Gallup poll showing Paul doing better against President Barack Obama than Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), including with carrying independent voters (something she hasn’t done), it’s hard to say that he shouldn’t be getting more coverage in the media.

Poll shows potential GOP opponents within striking distance of Obama

According to new numbers released yesterday by Gallup, President Barack Obama is facing a tough bid for re-election as the four leading candidates for the Republican nomination are either leading, tied or within a few points. The numbers are good, but context, as Dave Weigel advises, is important.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 46%
  • Romney: 48%
  • Other/Don’t know: 6%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 47%
  • Perry: 47%
  • Other/Don’t know: 6%

Barack Obama v. Ron Paul

  • Obama: 47%
  • Paul: 45%
  • Other/Don’t know: 8%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

  • Obama: 48%
  • Bachmann: 44%
  • Other/Don’t know: 7%

Interestingly, the numbers matchup with election forecasting showing that Obama would get 48% of the vote on election, as James Pethokoukis notes:

Paul does well in New Hampshire poll

Ron Paul, despite the near media blackout against him, continues to put up fairly solid numbers in various polls.  His showing in the Ames straw poll was all fine and good, but the Ames doesn’t necessarily speak for Iowa.  However, he’s making a respectable showing in a poll from the New Hampshire Journal.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains in a commanding position in the first-in-the-nation primary state while Texas Gov. Rick Perry makes a strong first showing in the latest NH Journal survey conducted by Magellan Strategies.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann appears not to have experienced a bump from her victory at the Ames, IA straw poll conducted last weekend. In fact 84% of respondents said the Ames straw poll results have no impact on their decision to support a candidate.

On the ballot Romney remains in a strong position. He leads all candidates with 36% of the vote. However, Perry, making his first appearance in the NH Journal poll, debuts with a strong 18%. Ron Paul continues to impress despite relatively little media attention with 14%. And Bachmann earns 10%. All other candidates were in single digits.

The idea of Paul doing well in New Hampshire isn’t exactly a huge shock.  This is one of the most libertarian leaning states in the nation, the site for the Free State Project, so a libertarian candidate doing well isn’t exactly surprising.  However, for him to do it with so little media exposure, now that is pretty sweet.

It’s a shame that Gary Johnson isn’t making as big of a splash, but he has a few factors working against him, namely that so few folks even know who he is or what he stands for.


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