United Liberty

Someone pointed out not too long ago that history shows that whoever won the Iowa caucus and South Carolina primary has traditionally gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination. According to polling in the Hawkeye State, Rick Perry is holding a small lead there over Mitt Romney. But a new poll from Public Policy Policy out of South Carolina shows Perry running away with the state:

• Rick Perry: 36%
• Mitt Romney: 13%
• Sarah Palin: 10%
• Herman Cain: 9%
• Michele Bachmann: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 7%
• Ron Paul: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other/Not sure: 7%

And without Palin in the race:

• Rick Perry: 36%
• Mitt Romney: 16%
• Michele Bachmann: 13%
• Herman Cain: 9%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Ron Paul: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other/Not sure: 7%

While Romney would best Bachmann, 45% to 40%, in a head-to-head match up, Perry would beat him decisively, 59% to 28%. That’s certainly an ominous sign for Romney in a crucial early primary state.

The candidates have been set for the debate, sponsored by Politico and NBC News, on September 7th at Ronald Reagan Presidential Liberty in Semi Valley, California. According to the press release from Politico, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have all confirmed for the debate.

Unfortunately, Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter have been excluded; although they did include Jon Huntsman, who is barely registering some polls.

The debate will air live on MSNBC at 8pm on Wednesday, September 7th. We’ll probably be live-blogging it here.

Here is the full press release from Politico.

Candidates Announcement for September 7 Debate

Polls have been flying out like crazy since Rick Perry got into the race for the Republican nomination for president. Gallup and Public Policy Polling have released numbers pairing several different Republicans against President Barack Obama. We also got our first look at post-Ames numbers out of Iowa.

Rasmussen was the first to post numbers showing that Perry had jumped ahead of Romney, but one poll isn’t definitive. But Gallup and Public Policy Polling released new national numbers yesterday in the Republican field showing that Rick Perry is, for all intents and purposes, the new frontrunner.

Here’s the poll from Gallup:

• Rick Perry: 29%
• Mitt Romney: 17%
• Ron Paul: 13%
• Michele Bachmann: 10%
• Herman Cain: 4%
• Newt Gingrich: 4%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other: 2%
• No preference: 17%

Public Policy Polling has somewhat different results. Unlike Gallup, they show Bachmann in the top three and Paul in the middle of the pack.

• Rick Perry: 33%
• Mitt Romney: 20%
• Michele Bachmann: 16%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Herman Cain: 6%
• Ron Paul: 6%
• Rick Santorum: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Other/Not sure: 5%

And if Palin runs:

The first post-Ames numbers were released yesterday via Public Policy Polling. Consequently, this also the first poll out of Iowa since Rick Perry formally got in the race for the GOP nomination.

As you could have probably guessed, Perry has overtaken Michele Bachmann as the favorite in the state while Mitt Romney comes in a close second (all three of them are within the poll’s margin of error).

• Rick Perry: 22%
• Mitt Romney: 19%
• Michele Bachmann: 18%
• Ron Paul: 16%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 5%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Other/Not sure: 5%

And with Palin in the race:

• Rick Perry: 21%
• Mitt Romney: 18%
• Michele Bachmann: 15%
• Ron Paul: 12%
• Sarah Palin: 10%
• Newt Gingrich: 7%
• Herman Cain: 6%
• Rick Santorum: 5%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Other/Not sure: 4%

The poll should serve as a shot of reality for Bachmann. Yeah, she won the Ames Straw Poll, but her support was soft. And while I heard Erick Erickson say yesterday that Romney was diverting resources to Iowa, this poll really makes me doubt that (or at leas the wisdom in doing so).

Perry and Bachmann have essentially the same base - conservatives and tea partyers - and they, according to this poll, make up 40% of the GOP’s base in Iowa. These are voters that were already skeptical of Romney and are unlikely to suddenly support him if their candidate were to drop out. Add in Cain and at least some of Paul’s supporters (I presume that a significant number of them would back Johnson or another conservative candidate or just not vote), and the conservative/tea party vote is well over 50%.

If you bothered to watch the GOP debate last night, you caught the most entertaining show yet as candidates sparred over each others record and on certain issues. There were plently of questions about credibility and viability, most of which were entirely valid. But if you were looking for a serious discussion on the real issues the country faces, including dealing with entitlements, you were no doubt disappointed.

Here is the debate, in case you missed it:

As far as winners go, I’d say that Mitt Romney could be considered a winner since he came out unscathed, not because he offered impressive knowledge of the issues or gave a dominating performance. Michele Bachmann probably should be considered a winner as well because the sparring with Tim Pawlenty probably helped her more than it hurt her.I don’t know why any candidate would purposefully pick a fight with her and keep at it like that. It only endures her more to her base.

Who are the losers? Anyone that watched and Newt Gingrich, who spent part of the evening complaining petulant 10 year-old that the questions were unfair.

With the Ames Straw Poll this weekend, the most important date in the campaign at this point, candidates are feverishly fighting for position in Iowa. The latest from poll Rasmussen out of the Hawkeye State shows three candidates, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul within 6 points of each other and Rick Perry, who will finally announce that he is running on Saturday, isn’t far behind.

• Michele Bachmann: 22%
• Mitt Romney: 21%
• Ron Paul: 16%
• Rick Perry: 12%
• Tim Pawlenty: 11%
• Newt Gingrich: 5%
• Herman Cain: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other: 7%

Pawlenty is downplaying the significance of the straw poll, that is if a “credible” candidate doesn’t win; clearly a shot at Bachmann and Paul. Nevermind that he is flirting with Huntsman and Santorum for the least likely to win the nomination, that is if you pay attention to the national polling. Even Paul, for example, has a good chance of winning, it shouldn’t been passed off as a fluke; as David Boaz notes in response to George Will:

While Michele Bachmann has certainly picked up steam in the race for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney is still holds a double-digit lead over her in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Here’s how it shapes up:

• Mitt Romney: 26%
• Sarah Palin: 16%
• Michele Bachmann: 13%
• Ron Paul: 7%
• Rick Perry: 8%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Tim Pawlenty: 2%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Other: 1%
• NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 9%

But like many of the polls we’ve seen over the last several weeks, they tested the Republican field with and without Sarah Palin. The first set is without her running and with Rick Perry’s likely candidacy.

• Mitt Romney: 30%
• Michele Bachmann: 16%
• Ron Paul: 11%
• Rick Perry: 8%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 6%
• Jon Huntsman:3%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Tim Pawlenty: 3%
• Other: 1%
• NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

This second set includes Palin, but leaves off Perry:

• Mitt Romney: 28%
• Sarah Palin: 19%
• Michele Bachmann: 13%
• Ron Paul: 10%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 5%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Tim Pawlenty: 2%
• Other: 1%
• NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

The poll shows strong numbers in terms support for Romney, but it also has points of concern for his campaign as noted in the Washington Post’s report on the poll:

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann continues to gain on, and in at least one instance surpass, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in national polling, which is largely useless given that we’re dealing with state caucuses and primaries to determine delegates for presidential candidates. However, these polls do offer us, as I’ve noted before, a sense of where Republican voters are right now.

The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Romney still leading, but Bachmann picking up more support since their last poll:

• Mitt Romney: 30%
• Michele Bachmann: 16%
• Rick Perry: 11%
• Ron Paul: 9%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Herman Cain: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Tim Pawlenty: 2%

Cain has dropped off substantially from the last NBC/WSJ poll; he was at 12% and is now at 5%. They also left Sarah Palin out of this poll, it’s like her support gets divided between Bachmann and Perry.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, also polled the race recently under two scenarios; with and without the presence of Sarah Palin.

Here is how the race shapes up with Palin:

• Mitt Romney: 20%
• Michele Bachmann: 16%
• Sarah Palin: 12%
• Rick Perry: 11%
• Herman Cain: 10%
• Ron Paul: 9%
• Newt Gingrich: 6%
• Tim Pawlenty: 5%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other/Undecided: 10%

And without Palin:

While I’m not convinced Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s biggest threat to the Republican nomination, she continues to show that she may steal the show in Iowa. According to yet another poll out of the Hawkeye State - this one conducted by American Research Group, Bachmann leads Romney by a small margin among likely caucus-goers.

• Michele Bachmann: 21%
• Mitt Romney: 18%
• Ron Paul: 14%
• Sarah Palin: 11%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Rick Santorum: 5%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Herman Cain: 2%
• Rudy Giuliani: 2%
• Tim Pawlenty:
• Other: 2:
• Undecided: 10%

The poll also notes:

Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among registered Republicans. Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among those saying they will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican caucus. And Bachmann leads Romney 30% to 7% among those saying they are supporters of the Tea Party.

Ron Paul leads Romney 24% to 23% among no party (independent) voters, with Sarah Palin at 15% and Bachmann at 2%. Paul leads Romney 22% to 20% among probable caucus goers, with Bachmann at 14% and Palin at 12%.

Romney leads Bachmann 31% to 11% among likely caucus goers saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows Bachmann picking up steam as well, though that doesn’t come a surprise. We haven’t paid much attention to national polls lately, but given how the field is shaping up, here is a look at how Republican voters are going.

Quinnipiac released a poll yesterday from the Keystone State showing that former Sen. Rick Santorum doesn’t have homefield advantage against Mitt Romney:

[T]he Quinnipiac University survey of Keystone state voters released Wednesday also indicates that President Barack Obama’s re-election numbers are on the rise in the crucial battleground state. According to the poll, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the Republican field at 21 percent, followed by Santorum at 16 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 11 percent. No one else was in double digits and 17 percent are undecided.

Even though Pennsylvania voters are split down the middle on whether the approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, he still leads Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup in the state:

• Obama: 47%
• Romney: 40%
• Other: 3%
• Wouldn’t vote: 4%
• Undecided: 6%

Santorum, who has no shot of winning the Republican nomination anyway, trails Obama by a wider margin, 49% to 38%. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), who easily defeated Santorum in 2006, seems to be a safe bet for re-election at this point; though we still have a long way to go until the 2012 election. And Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), a conservative that was elected last year, has an approval rating at 45%; only 28% disapprove.

Here are the results of the poll among Pennsylvania Republicans: