Dems take generic ballot lead, GOP much more enthusiastic

The latest generic ballot poll for control of Congress shows Democrats taking the lead over Republicans for November:

Democrats this week have jumped into a 6-percentage-point generic-ballot edge for November’s election, according to a new Gallup Poll.

Forty-nine percent of the 1,535 adults surveyed nationwide said they would prefer to vote for a Democrat to represent their congressional district. Forty-three percent are more likely to vote for a Republican.

Just more than a month ago, Republicans held a 6-point edge over Democrats in the poll.
Republicans hold a 4-point edge among independents in this week’s poll, 43-39 percent. Just a week before, Republicans led by 14 points. In mid-June, Republicans led 52 percent to 31 percent among independents.

In her analysis, Gallup’s Lydia Saad speculated that the generic-ballot bump for Democrats this past week could be due to the passage of financial reform.

“The financial reform bill is the second-biggest piece of legislation to get through Congress this year, after health care reform, and it enjoyed majority support,” Saad wrote. “According to a USA Today/Gallup poll in June, 55% of Americans were in favor of legislation expanding government regulation of financial institutions — including 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents. Only Republicans were generally opposed.”

The poll surveyed registered voters, which generally skews towards Democrats. However, this is a significant swing and something Republicans may want to pay attention to, instead of measuring the drapes in the House of Representatives.

The red flag for Democrats?:

Latest projection for November: 25 to 33 seat pick up in the House for GOP

I mentioned earlier that Democrats have overtaken the lead on the generic ballot, though with some caveats. However, the latest projections from the Rothenberg Political Report show Republicans picking up between 25 to 33 seats in the House:

The Democratic strategy is clear: redefine the 2010 election from a referendum on the President, the Congress and the economy into a choice between Democrats and Republicans. Then, blame the GOP for the current state of affairs, define them as opposed to positive change and destroy Republican candidates race by race. That’s a good strategy, but it isn’t likely to work well enough to deny the GOP a big gain.

We now have 23 Democratic seats at least tilting toward the GOP, with just two Republican seats going in the Democrats’ direction. The large number of Democratic toss-ups and leans show why Democratic control of the House after November is very much in doubt.

We reiterate our view that substantial Republican gains are inevitable and are increasing our target for most likely GOP gains from 25-30 seats to 28-33 seats. However, it is important to note that considerably larger Republican gains in excess of 39 seats are quite possible.

Republicans set to make gubernatorial gains

Not only are Democrats facing huge losses in Congress this fall, but they may also be looking at devastating losses in gubernatorial races, according to Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics:

Consider today’s RealClearPolitics No Toss Up Map, which shows the state of the 2010 Governor races based off of the latest RCP Averages and polls:

Based on this, Democrats are headed toward holding 28% of the Governor’s seats. This is their lowest result since the ending of Reconstruction allowed for fully competitive gubernatorial elections in all states. It is well below their 134-year average of 55% of seats held.

Looking more closely at the polls, two open Democratic governorships are almost certainly lost: Wyoming and Kansas. Losses for an incumbent in Iowa and in the open Oklahoma gubernatorial race seem nearly as certain. Four more open seats (for a total of eight) seem to lean toward the Republicans: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Few seats seem likely to offset this. Democrats will probably pick up the open Republican Governor’s seat in Hawaii, where Barack Obama won with 72% of the vote. Ned Lamont, the likely Democratic nominee in Connecticut, is in good position to pick up that seat for the Democrats.

Most vulnerable members of the House

Over at Hot Air, Patrick Ishmael has posted a list of the 100 most vulnerable members of the House of Representatives. He also discusses the chances of Republicans taking control of the House, a scenario that I think is still unlikely.

The list is order from most likely to switch to least likely.

Republicans still want tax cuts without spending cuts

After years of fiscal incompetence by Republicans on spending, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-NV) shows us that they still don’t get it:

I want the Bush tax cuts extended, but you absolutely must have corresponding cuts in spending to balance them out. A tax cut without spending cuts is a tax increase in the long-term. Republicans still don’t get that fiscal improprieties during the years they had control of Congress, not only led to their defeat in 2006, placed a burden on future generations.

H/T: Outside the Beltway

If at first you can’t repeal, then defund

Is defunding ObamaCare the answer if Republicans can’t drum up enough votes to repeal it? Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) thinks so:

Burgess, a licensed obstetrician and the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, told attendees at a Health Affairs Media Breakfast that while repeal of the new law is unlikely; shutting down funding to implement it could be just as effective. Such a move is “an opportunity for those of us who think it’s a bad product,” Burgess said. He added that Republicans have not changed their opposition to the “badly flawed” Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in the three months since it became law.

While I’m not convinced that Republicans won’t fall in love with parts of ObamaCare when/if they gain back control of Congress in the next cycle or two, if they don’t have the votes to repeal, I’d certainly take this option.

H/T: Reason

Gallup: GOP leads Dems among independents

Republicans are maintaining their lead over Democrats among independent voters, according to new polling from Gallup:

The poll shows that President Barack Obama is struggling among independents, as 51% disapprove of the job he is doing. Conversely, 42% approve of his performance.

Gallup: Conservatives represent the largest ideological group in the nation

A new Gallup survey shows that conservatives are the largest ideological group in the nation, which the polling firm calls a “record-high level of conservatism, outpacing moderates and liberals.

Gallup survey

Texas Republicans Very Obsessed With The Gays

Apparently, the biggest problems facing Texas involve Adam and Steve:

Texas Republicans are a conservative lot. Still, it’s difficult to imagine mainstream GOP voters demanding their neighbors be jailed for engaging in a little hanky-panky behind closed doors.

Nevertheless, the state’s Republican party has voted on a platform [PDF link] by which their candidates will stand, and it includes the reinstatement of laws banning sodomy: otherwise known as oral and anal sex.

The party’s platform also seeks to make gay marriage a felony offense, which may be confusing to most given that the state does not sanction or recognize same sex marriages, meaning any such ceremony conducted does not bear the weight of law. Whether this means the GOP wants gay couples married in other states to be pursued through Texas as dangerous criminals, the party did not specify.

“We oppose the legalization of sodomy,” the platform states. “We demand that Congress exercise its authority granted by the U.S. Constitution to withhold jurisdiction from the federal courts from cases involving sodomy.”

There must be a lot of illicit sodomy going on in Texas because, you know, there really aren’t any other problems facing the world.

But wait, it gets worse:

What would Reagan do on immigration?

In a great article at the Wall Street Journal, Peter Robinson reminds conservatives and Republicans that Ronald Reagan welcomed immigrants, including illegals, to the United States:

In 1986, Reagan signed legislation granting amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. Instead of denouncing the undocumented, Reagan invited them to become citizens. If Reagan was right then, isn’t Sen. McCain wrong now? To attempt an answer, I’ve listed what we know for certain about my old boss and immigration. Then I’ve done my best to figure out what each item tells us about where Reagan would have stood on the issue today.

What we know for certain, item one: Ronald Reagan was no kind of nativist. In a 1977 radio talk, for instance, Reagan dismissed “the illegal alien fuss,” arguing that we need immigrant labor. “One thing is certain in this hungry world,” he said. “No regulation or law should be allowed if it results in crops rotting in the fields for lack of harvesters.”

Reagan’s attitude toward the growing Hispanic influence in American life? When announcing his bid for the White House in 1979 he asserted plainly, “I favor statehood for Puerto Rico”—scarcely the position of an Anglo chauvinist. And Reagan again and again declared that a basic, even radical, openness to immigration represents a defining aspect of our national identity. Describing America as “a shining city” in his 1989 farewell address, for example, he said, “[a]nd if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.”

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