You may have heard about a new poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post showing Democrats gaining ground on Republicans in the generic congressional ballot. Is this evidence that Democrats aren’t in as much trouble as we thought? Not necessarily, though things are certainly getting interesting. As Ed Morrissy points out, the poll has a flaw:
[H]ow did the Democrats manage this rather remarkable comeback? Well, the WaPo/ABC pollster managed to find their usual sample gap. They went from a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters, to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters. That nine-point advantage to Democrats among RVs is almost twice what it was in the previous sample.
To believe that this represents the electorate, we would have to believe that (a) Democrats have had a big month in attracting voters to their banner, (b) Republicans somehow lost a bunch of voters in the same period, and (c) Democrats now have an advantage outstripping their 2008 situation when they won the presidency by seven points in the popular vote. Not even their own poll supports any of those conclusions, and both Gallup and Rasmussen this year put the partisan ID split among the general population at between 1.5 and 3 points.
- Toomey: 49%
- Sestak: 41%
- Other: 4%
- Not sure: 7%
As I noted last week, there has been speculation that the DSCC is pulling out of Pennsylvania and putting their efforts in other seats that are more competitive, such as Colorado, as well as states that they didn’t expect to defend, such as Connecticut and Washington.
The poll shows that 54% of voters have a favorable view of Toomey, while 45% have a favorable view of Sestak. Forty-four percent view Sestak unfavorably. A majority of voters, 54%, disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.
A plurality of voters trust Republicans more on hot button issues, such as taxes, and 69% of voters believe the current policies of the federal government have the country on the wrong track.
While Democrats in the blogosphere have been giddy over poll numbers that showed the divide between Rand Paul and Jack Conway shrinking, it seems that it’s short lived. According to the latest numbers from Rasmussen, Paul’s lead is at 11 points, though he is back under the 50% mark.
- Paul: 49%
- Conway: 38%
- Other: 5%
- Not sure: 8%
2008 exit poll:
- Democrat: 47%
- Republican: 38%
- Independent: 15%
- Democrat: 51%
- Republican: 36%
- Independent: 12%
- Democrat: 46%
- Republican: 38%
- Independent: 16%
In this latest poll, Paul holds a sizable advantage over Conway with independent voters, 43% to 25%, and is viewed favorably by 56% of voters. Conway is viewed favorably by 46%.
Sixty-two percent of voters in Kentucky believe the current policies of the federal government have us on the wrong course. That same number supports repealing ObamaCare with 50% believing that such action would be good for the economy.
Rasmussen’s latest poll out of Florida shows Marco Rubio holding his lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) in the race for United States Senate.
- Rubio: 41%
- Crist: 30%
- Meek: 21%
- Other: 3%
- Not sure: 5%
According to Real Clear Politics, Rubio has held a double-digit lead in each of the last six polls in this race. Crist has not led since the beginning of August.
Democrats and independent voters are what is keeping Crist in the game. Only a fraction of Republicans still support his candidacy. A majority of voters do still hold a favorable view of him and approve of his performance as Governor. Rubio is also view favorably by a majority of voters.
According to a new survey from Rasmussen, 50% of likely voters view the Pledge to America as a campaign gimmick. However, 53% believe that it is likely that Republicans will enact at least some of the “reforms” outlined in the document.
The Pledge, which has been met with mixed reaction, takes almost no stance on entitlements, does not mention earmarks and endorses parts of ObamaCare. While it may be politically safe, it is a very weak and gives us a glimpse as to how serious the GOP at changing Washington. Remember, the budgets of the 95 major programs that the Contract with America promised to eliminate increased by 13% under Republican control of Congress.
H/T: Pajama Pundit
The latest poll from Rasmussen out of West Virginia shows John Raese (R) leading Gov. Joe Machin (D), who held a 16 point lead two months ago. This is the second poll in the last two weeks to show Raese leading, the other came from Public Policy Polling.
- Raese: 48%
- Manchin: 46%
- Other: 2%
- Not sure: 4%
Machin’s favorables are still high, right at 70% and 69% approve of his performance as Governor. It looks like Raese and the NRSC have been successful thus far in making this race a referendum on President Barack Obama, who is not doing that well with West Virginians as 68% disapprove of his performance. Sixty-six percent believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction and 50% of voters believe that Obama’s policies caused the current economic problems.
In recent days, Machin has backtracked on his support of ObamaCare, now supporting repeal of some provisions:
Manchin endorsed President Obama’s efforts on landmark health care reform and voiced support for the bill before and after its passage in March. Now, just five weeks away from a tougher Senate race than he expected against Republican John Raese, the governor said in an interview with RealClearPolitics that he supports many basic components of the law but volunteered that some of it needs to be repealed.
“I believe in health care reform. I don’t believe in the way this bill was passed,” Manchin said Sunday afternoon. “Why they overreached, I don’t know.”
Two polls out of West Virginia, by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling, give us a very different picture of the race for United States Senate between John Raese (R) and Gov. Joe Manchin (D).
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, shows Raese taking a lead over Manchin, though inside the margin of error:
- Raese: 46%
- Manchin: 43%
- Undecided: 10%
This poll shows Barack Obama’s approval rating at 30%, while 64% disapprove of him. Sixty-three percent oppose the health care “reform” law passed by Congress earlier this year. West Virginians prefer that Republicans take control of Congress, 54% to 37%.
Despite the low numbers of Obama, Manchin’s numbers are reversed, 59% approve of his job performance. Only 32% disapprove. However, independent voters are backing Raese, 56% to 30%.
Rasmussen still shows Manchin over Raese, slightly increasing his lead:
- Manchin: 50%
- Raese: 43%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 5%
There isn’t too much different in the crosstabs from Rasmussen, Manchin is viewed favorably by 71% of voters. Raese is viewed favorably by 53%. Sixty-four percent want ObamaCare repealed and 64% disapprove of the president’s job performance.
Raese still leads among independent voters, but not as wide of a margin, 49% to 36%.
We’re not ready to call this race a toss-up yet, but this is one to keep an eye on if Raese is able to tie Manchin to national Democrats.
When you’re running as a write-in candidate, you may want to make sure you spell your name correctly in campaign ads. We’re looking at you Lisa Murkuwski.
Of course, that isn’t the end of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s problems. Republicans in the Senate may vote this week on whether or not to strip her of her spot as ranking member of the Senate Energy Committee. Murkowski already resigned her spot in leadership.
Murkowski, who says she was convinced to run after receiving support from Alaskans, is now complaining that Senate Republicans have abandoned her as she runs against the Republican nominee, Joe Miller, in the general election. She enjoyed the NRSC’s support during the primary, which bothered conservative and tea party activists.
The odds of Murkowski being successful in her write-in bid are low, this was confirmed yesterday in polling from Rasmussen, which shows:
- Johnson: 51%
- Feingold: 44%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 4%
Johnson is taking 59% of independent voters. Seventy-nine percent of voters are “sure of their vote.”
No doubt what is bringing down Feingold is his support of ObamaCare. According to the poll, 55% of Wisconsin voters support repeal, with a plurality (45%) believing that it would have a good impact on the economy.
Despite his numbers, Feingold has a favorability rating of 51%. His unfavorables are high as well, at 46%. But this election may come down to who voters like more, and Johnson is winning that as 61% of voters view him favorably.
Voters are even on their view of President Barack Obama, 49% approving, 49% disapproving.
On Friday, I posted a poll from West Virginia showing John Raese within five points of Gov. Joe Machin in the race for United States Senate. In an interview with Jim Geraghty at the National Review, pollster Scott Rasmussen senses that this race one to watch between now and November:
GERAGHTY: Any under-the-radar race you’re keeping your eye on? Any upset special?
RASMUSSEN: The race that I would potentially put in that category right now is the West Virginia Senate race. We have one poll out showing it a very competitive race. It’s clear that President Obama is not a welcome figure in West Virginia politics. But [Democratic nominee] Joe Manchin is so popular as governor that it was thought to be a safe seat. So that’s a potential upset special.
Manchin’s popularity may be what saves him in the end, but as I noted on Friday, Raese is going to tie him to President Barack Obama, who is enormously unpopular in West Virginia, as much as he can over the next two months.