WV Senate: Rasmussen shows a tightening race, but Raese still leads

Rasmussen, using a reasonable party ID breakdown (unlike Public Policy Polling), shows John Raese losing ground to Gov. Joe Manchin, who has broken with his party on ObamaCare and cap-and-trade, though still maintaining a three point lead in the race for United States Senate in West Virginia:

  • Raese: 49%
  • Manchin: 46%
  • Other: 2%
  • Not sure: 3%

The is the first time Rasmussen has polled in the race since the NRSC ad scandal, which seems to have cost Raese his lead. But the bad news doesn’t end there.

As has been often noted here when covering this race, Manchin is enormously popular in his state. This latest poll finds Manchin’s favorability with voters at 70% and 72% approve of his job performance as Governor. However, this race has been a referendum on President Barack Obama, whose job performance is disapproved of by 61% of voters.

Raese has seen his unfavorables jump from 40% in the last poll to 49%. His favorable rating is down from 56% to 48%. The silver-lining is that he has only dropped off by one point since the last poll, while undecideds are breaking for Manchin. He also continues to hold the lead among independents, 59% to 32%.And 53% believe Manchin should stay in West Virginia, continuing to serve as Governor.

WI Senate: Johnson still leads

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to lead Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), though the race has tightened slighty from the last poll.

  • Johnson: 52%
  • Feingold: 45%
  • Other: 0%
  • Not sure: 2%

Just as a note since I touched on questionable polling in West Virginia, the party breakdown in this survey is 40/34/26 (D/R/I), compared to 39/33/29 in 2008 exit polling.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters are certain of their vote, up from 79% in the last poll. Feingold is viewed favorably by 49% of voters and 48% view him unfavorably. Johnson fairs better, being viewed favorably by 60%, with 34% viewing him unfavorably.

Voters have an overall favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, but a plurality believe the economy is getting worse and believe it is performing poorly.

Barring a major slip up by Johnson or the NRSC in the next three weeks, this seat is going Republican.

WV Senate: Manchin retakes the lead (sort of)

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning polling firm, put out some new numbers yesterday out of West Virginia in the Senate race between Gov. Joe Manchin and John Raese. According to the poll, Manchin has regained the lead.

  • Manchin: 48%
  • Raese: 45%
  • Undecided: 7%

Here is the party breakdown of the poll:

  • Democrats: 55%
  • Republicans: 33%
  • Independents: 12%

That’s questionable, to say the least, especially when you consider that Democrats make-up a little over 54% of registered voters (the poll claims to be among likely voters) in the state that has gone Republican in each of the last three presidential elections.

Compare this to the party breakdown of the last poll, which show Raese in the lead, though by the same three point margin.

  • Democrats: 51%
  • Republicans: 37%
  • Independents: 12%

Public Policy Polling explains the difference:

NV Senate: Angle takes a four point lead

The latest poll out of Nevada shows Sharron Angle with a four point lead over Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), the largest lead she’s held since June.

  • Angle: 50%
  • Reid: 46%
  • Other: 2%
  • Not sure: 2%

Angle and Reid share identical favorable and unfavorable numbers (47%/51%) and there isn’t much room left to change minds as 83% are certain of their vote.

Independent voters are going to Angle, 61% to 33%. Sixty percent (60%) favor repeal ObamaCare, which Reid strongly backed in the Senate, with the same number opposing the individual mandate. Half of voters believe that states should have the ability to opt-out of the new law.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters rate the economy as poor, and a plurality of voters, 47%, believe it is getting worse. Nevada’s unemployment rate is 14.4%, the worst in the nation.

WV Senate: Raese’s lead widens

A couple days after a Fox News poll showed John Raese (R-WV) with a five point lead over Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Rasmussen shows him up by six and hitting the 50% mark for the first time in the race for United States Senate.

  • Raese: 50%
  • Manchin: 44%
  • Other: 2%
  • Not sure: 5%

Independents are overwhelmingly breaking for Raese, 54% to 26%. Perhaps the most telling point in the poll is that 53% of West Virginians believe that Manchin, who has an approval rating of 69%, should remain as Governor, which was a point emphasized in a recent ad by the NRSC.

As has been noted here a few times, this election, like so many across the country, is a referendum on Barack Obama. According to the survey 69% disapprove of his job performance.

Generic congressional ballot narrows, GOP remains in the lead

You may have heard about a new poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post showing Democrats gaining ground on Republicans in the generic congressional ballot. Is this evidence that Democrats aren’t in as much trouble as we thought? Not necessarily, though things are certainly getting interesting. As Ed Morrissy points out, the poll has a flaw:

[H]ow did the Democrats manage this rather remarkable comeback?  Well, the WaPo/ABC pollster managed to find their usual sample gap.  They went from a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters, to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  That nine-point advantage to Democrats among RVs is almost twice what it was in the previous sample.

To believe that this represents the electorate, we would have to believe that (a) Democrats have had a big month in attracting voters to their banner, (b) Republicans somehow lost a bunch of voters in the same period, and (c) Democrats now have an advantage outstripping their 2008 situation when they won the presidency by seven points in the popular vote.  Not even their own poll supports any of those conclusions, and both Gallup and Rasmussen this year put the partisan ID split among the general population at between 1.5 and 3 points.

PA Senate: Sestak still trails

In what is increasing looking like a Republican pick-up in November, Pat Toomey has maintained his lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), according to the latest poll from Rasmussen.

  • Toomey: 49%
  • Sestak: 41%
  • Other: 4%
  • Not sure: 7%

As I noted last week, there has been speculation that the DSCC is pulling out of Pennsylvania and putting their efforts in other seats that are more competitive, such as Colorado, as well as states that they didn’t expect to defend, such as Connecticut and Washington.

The poll shows that 54% of voters have a favorable view of Toomey, while 45% have a favorable view of Sestak. Forty-four percent view Sestak unfavorably. A majority of voters, 54%, disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

A plurality of voters trust Republicans more on hot button issues, such as taxes, and 69% of voters believe the current policies of the federal government have the country on the wrong track.

KY Senate: Rand Paul back with a double-digit lead

While Democrats in the blogosphere have been giddy over poll numbers that showed the divide between Rand Paul and Jack Conway shrinking, it seems that it’s short lived. According to the latest numbers from Rasmussen, Paul’s lead is at 11 points, though he is back under the 50% mark.

  • Paul: 49%
  • Conway: 38%
  • Other: 5%
  • Not sure: 8%

While the party breakdown in the poll from Survey USA was off, Rasmussen has it almost perfect. You can see the difference below from these two polls compared to 2008 exit poll numbers.

2008 exit poll:

  • Democrat: 47%
  • Republican: 38%
  • Independent: 15%

Survey USA:

  • Democrat: 51%
  • Republican: 36%
  • Independent: 12%


  • Democrat: 46%
  • Republican: 38%
  • Independent: 16%

In this latest poll, Paul holds a sizable advantage over Conway with independent voters, 43% to 25%, and is viewed favorably by 56% of voters. Conway is viewed favorably by 46%.

Sixty-two percent of voters in Kentucky believe the current policies of the federal government have us on the wrong course. That same number supports repealing ObamaCare with 50% believing that such action would be good for the economy.

FL Senate: Rubio holds 11 point lead

Rasmussen’s latest poll out of Florida shows Marco Rubio holding his lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) in the race for United States Senate.

  • Rubio: 41%
  • Crist: 30%
  • Meek: 21%
  • Other: 3%
  • Not sure: 5%

According to Real Clear Politics, Rubio has held a double-digit lead in each of the last six polls in this race. Crist has not led since the beginning of August.

Democrats and independent voters are what is keeping Crist in the game. Only a fraction of Republicans still support his candidacy. A majority of voters do still hold a favorable view of him and approve of his performance as Governor. Rubio is also view favorably by a majority of voters.

Cartoon of the Day: Pinky Swear with America

According to a new survey from Rasmussen, 50% of likely voters view the Pledge to America as a campaign gimmick. However, 53% believe that it is likely that Republicans will enact at least some of the “reforms” outlined in the document.

The Pledge, which has been met with mixed reaction, takes almost no stance on entitlements, does not mention earmarks and endorses parts of ObamaCare. While it may be politically safe, it is a very weak and gives us a glimpse as to how serious the GOP at changing Washington. Remember, the budgets of the 95 major programs that the Contract with America promised to eliminate increased by 13% under Republican control of Congress.

Pledge to America

H/T: Pajama Pundit

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