United Liberty

Marco Rubio (R) is poised to become the next United States Senator from Florida as the latest poll from Rasmussen shows him leading Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by a substantial margin.

• Rubio: 50%
• Crist: 30%
• Meek: 16%
• Other: 1%
• Not sure: 3%

News broke in the last week week that Crist, who has been trying to convince Meek to drop out of the race, would caucus with Democrats. This confirmed suspicion among conservative and Republican bloggers that has been around for months.

Former President Bil Clinton, who is rumored to have encouraged Meek to drop out, will be in Florida today to campaign for the Democratic nominee. So it appears that Meek will be in the race no matter what.

According to the survey, Rubio is vastly popular in the state as 58% of voters view him favorably. Crist is also view favorably by 51% of voters and also receives high marks for his performance as Governor. However, as he has moved to the left and President Barack Obama, Crist’s support has declined.

Rubio should win easily on Tuesday night.

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to hold a lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

• Johnson: 53%
• Feingold: 46%
• Not sure: 1%

Johnson has held a lead in this race since mid-July, frequently breaking the 50% mark and occasionally by double-digits.

Johnson is carrying independents, 60% to 39%, over Feingold. Johnson is also view much more favorably (58/41) than Feingold (49/48).

The crosstabs show that 86% are certain of their vote. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor repeal of ObamaCare. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

With just six days to go, the hotly contested race between Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle remains close. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen:

• Angle: 49%
• Reid: 45%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 2%

The poll indicates that the time to change minds is running out as 92% are certain of their vote. Three percents (3%) are not certain of their vote and 5% have no initial preference. The candidates favorables/unfavorables are still under water. Reid is at 43/56, Angle is 46/52.

Independents are still breaking going to Angle, 57% to 32%, over Reid. On unemployment, which is at 14.4% in Nevada, 65% believe that it will be the same or worse in 12 months. And 59% support repeal of ObamaCare, which Reid helped usher threw the Senate.

There are already allegations of voter fraud as some voters in Clark County complained that Reid’s name was already checked. This promoted accusations from Angle campaign that Reid intends to steal the election.

Here is a look at the most recent ad from Angle, which slams Reid for various verbal missteps:

The most recent survey out of Pennsylvania by Rasmussen confirms that Pat Toomey’s lead over Rep. Joe Sestak has shrunk, by he still leads by four points heading into the home stretch. Toomey blames the shrinking of his lead on the DSCC.

• Toomey: 48%
• Sestak: 44%
• Other: 1%
• Not sure: 7%

Toomey holds a 50% to 29% lead among independents over Sestak. Toomey also leads among the three issues (the economy, health care and spending) voters were asked about.

Neither candidate has been successful in labeling the other as an extremist as their numbers on this question are almost indentical. Toomey is viewed more favorably by voters (55%) that Sestak (48%).

The two candidates faced off in a debate on Friday evening in Pittsburgh, you can watch it in full below:

The race for United States Senate is tightening in Kentucky, as the race has become extremely contentious in the last week. The tense tone seemed to coalesce in a debate on Sunday evening, where Rand Paul slammed his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, for personally attacking him and his religion in an ad that even some Democrats believe went too far. Paul walked off stage without shaking his hand.

The latest poll from Rasmussen shows:

• Paul: 47%
• Conway: 42%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 7%

It’s clear the attention on his past has taken him off message, but Paul has lost more support that Conway has gained. Since the beginning of August, Conway’s support has fluctuated between 31% to 42%, that doesn’t include a poll of registered voters or the poll with the questionable model showing Conway at 47%.

Paul is considering skipping the next debate, but with a poll showing his opponent within five point, he may have to attend.

The first post-debate poll out of Nevada shows much of the same between Sen. Harry Reid and Sharron Angle, a close race that will likely go down to the wire on November 2nd.

• Angle: 50%
• Reid: 47%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 1%

Of the nine polls conducted in October, Angle leads in seven of them, however all within the margin of error.

Angle is leading 50% to 44% among independents. She is viewed favorably by 48% of voters, and unfavorably by 50%. Ordinarily, wouldn’t be a good sign, but Reid is viewed unfavorably by 53%, and favorably by 43%.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor repeal of ObamaCare and 56% disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

On the economy, 64% of Nevada voters rate it as “poor,” while 49% believe it is getting worse.

We have another poll out of Pennsylvania, this time from Public Policy Polling. It shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) leading Pat Toomey by a point, inside the margin of error.

• Sestak: 46%
• Toomey: 45%
• Undecided: 9%

So, it Pennsylvania now a “toss-up,” as the folks at Public Policy Polling say, or this another poll similar to what they put out from West Virginia last week, where they party samples overweighted Democrats and underweighted independents? The race may be closer, but a toss-up? I’m skeptical.

Public Policy Polling used this party ID breakdown:

• Democrats: 48%
• Republicans: 41%
• Independents: 11%

As I noted in the poll last poll from Rasmussen in this race, 2008 exit polls from Pennsylvania show a party ID breakdown of:

• Democrats: 44%
• Republicans: 38%
• Independents: 18%

Rasmussen nearly nailed this in their last poll out of Pennsylvania with a breakdown of 45/37/17 (D/R/I). That poll showed Toomey with a 10 point lead. If fact, all the recent polling out of the Keystone State shows Toomey with anywhere from a 3 to 10 point lead and the Real Clear Politics average shows a 6.3 point advantage for the Republican nominee.

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Pennsylvania shows Pat Toomey with his largest lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) in the race for United States Senate since late-August.

• Toomey: 49%
• Sestak: 39%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 10%

The DSCC and Sestak campaign have released internals, which are noted by Pollster, showing the race to be a toss-up, but nearly every public poll shows Toomey leading outside the margin of error.

Sestak has allowed himself to be defined as a liberal and someone who is in lock-step with President Barack Obama by Toomey, the NRSC and outside groups like the Club for Growth. According to Rasmussen, 48% of voters view him unfavorably, though 43% view him favorably.

Toomey is view favorably by 54% of voters, while 36% view him unfavorably. He is also running away with independents, 62% to 15%, over Sestak.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) rate the economy as “poor” and 53% believe it is getting worse. Another 55% support repeal of ObamaCare.

Since I’ve noted this in a few polls lately, the party ID breakdown (D/R/I) in this poll is 45/37/17. The exit polls from Pennsylvania in 2008 show a 44/37/18 breakdown.

Rasmussen, using a reasonable party ID breakdown (unlike Public Policy Polling), shows John Raese losing ground to Gov. Joe Manchin, who has broken with his party on ObamaCare and cap-and-trade, though still maintaining a three point lead in the race for United States Senate in West Virginia:

• Raese: 49%
• Manchin: 46%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 3%

The is the first time Rasmussen has polled in the race since the NRSC ad scandal, which seems to have cost Raese his lead. But the bad news doesn’t end there.

As has been often noted here when covering this race, Manchin is enormously popular in his state. This latest poll finds Manchin’s favorability with voters at 70% and 72% approve of his job performance as Governor. However, this race has been a referendum on President Barack Obama, whose job performance is disapproved of by 61% of voters.

Raese has seen his unfavorables jump from 40% in the last poll to 49%. His favorable rating is down from 56% to 48%. The silver-lining is that he has only dropped off by one point since the last poll, while undecideds are breaking for Manchin. He also continues to hold the lead among independents, 59% to 32%.And 53% believe Manchin should stay in West Virginia, continuing to serve as Governor.

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to lead Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), though the race has tightened slighty from the last poll.

• Johnson: 52%
• Feingold: 45%
• Other: 0%
• Not sure: 2%

Just as a note since I touched on questionable polling in West Virginia, the party breakdown in this survey is 40/34/26 (D/R/I), compared to 39/33/29 in 2008 exit polling.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters are certain of their vote, up from 79% in the last poll. Feingold is viewed favorably by 49% of voters and 48% view him unfavorably. Johnson fairs better, being viewed favorably by 60%, with 34% viewing him unfavorably.

Voters have an overall favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, but a plurality believe the economy is getting worse and believe it is performing poorly.

Barring a major slip up by Johnson or the NRSC in the next three weeks, this seat is going Republican.