As talk of Sarah Palin running for the GOP nomination once again heats up (as seems to be the case every few months), Rasmussen brings us a poll that should remind Republicans why that would probably be a really bad idea.
- Obama: 50%
- Palin: 33%
- Other: 15%
- Not sure: 2%
Palin is expected to announce her plans after Labor Day. A few months ago, I thought all of this was for show, but now I’m not so sure. She still has dedicated supporters, so you’d have to think that she’d be a “serious” contender for the GOP nomination.
With the Ames Straw Poll this weekend, the most important date in the campaign at this point, candidates are feverishly fighting for position in Iowa. The latest from poll Rasmussen out of the Hawkeye State shows three candidates, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul within 6 points of each other and Rick Perry, who will finally announce that he is running on Saturday, isn’t far behind.
- Michele Bachmann: 22%
- Mitt Romney: 21%
- Ron Paul: 16%
- Rick Perry: 12%
- Tim Pawlenty: 11%
- Newt Gingrich: 5%
- Herman Cain: 4%
- Jon Huntsman: 2%
- Other: 7%
Pawlenty is downplaying the significance of the straw poll, that is if a “credible” candidate doesn’t win; clearly a shot at Bachmann and Paul. Nevermind that he is flirting with Huntsman and Santorum for the least likely to win the nomination, that is if you pay attention to the national polling. Even Paul, for example, has a good chance of winning, it shouldn’t been passed off as a fluke; as David Boaz notes in response to George Will:
Climate change is always a touchy subject. It generates strong feelings one way or another in most political type folks. However, a new Rassmusen poll shows that a large chunk of the American people believe that scientists have fudged the numbers somewhere along the line. How many?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 69% say it’s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data in order to support their own theories and beliefs, including 40% who say this is Very Likely. Twenty-two percent (22%) don’t think it’s likely some scientists have falsified global warming data, including just six percent (6%) say it’s Not At All Likely. Another 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here .)
The number of adults who say it’s likely scientists have falsified data is up 10 points from December 2009 .
I don’t care who you are, that’s a lot of folks. However, I can already hear some on the left clamoring about how it’s because of Fox News or whoever the boogieman is today. I wouldn’t be so sure about that if I were them. After all, Rassmusen finds that 51% of Democrats think the same thing.
Rasmussen Reports reported new numbers in the race for the Republican presidential nomination this week, which like most other polls show Mitt Romney holding a small lead. However, Rick Perry, who is expected to enter the race some time this month, has pulled ahead of Michele Bachmann.
- Mitt Romney: 22%
- Rick Perry: 18%
- Michele Bachmann: 16%
- Ron Paul: 10%
- Herman Cain: 9%
- Newt Gingrich: 6%
- Tim Pawlenty: 3%
- Jon Huntsman: 2%
- Other: 4%
- Undecided: 9%
Rasmussen notes that Perry has a small advantage over Bachmann with the tea party, taking 28% over the movement’s support to her 22%. According to the poll, the tea party makes up 39% of the GOP’s electorate - a higher number than most other firms have showed in their data sets. Among non-tea party voters, Romney brings in 29%. Perry is the closest to him with 13%.
What if the race were just between Romney, Perry and Bachmann? According to Rasmussen, Romney would hold a slight lead (he’d also lead each candidate in head-to-head matchups, though it would be very close):
- Mitt Romney: 34%
- Michele Bachmann: 27%
- Rick Perry: 26%
- Other: 5%
- Undecided: 8%
So, there you go. I’ve been saying it for awhile now, but once Perry gets in this race, I really do expect him to be Romney’s biggest roadblock toward the nomination.
On the heels of the first straw poll for 2012, Rasmussen is out with new polling in the 2012 Republican primary for president that shows Mitt Romney will a small lead over Sarah Palin and Tax Hike Mike Huckabee in a limited field of seven possible candidates.
- Mitt Romney: 24%
- Sarah Palin: 19%
- Mike Huckabee: 17%
- Newt Gingrich: 11%
- Tim Pawlenty: 6%
- Ron Paul: 4%
- Mitch Daniels: 3%
- Other: 6%
- Not sure: 10%
None of this means anything right now. We’re going to spend the next several months going over the faults of each candidates, why they can win or why they can’t. But Rasmussen, with it’s Republican-leaning bent, gives us a good idea of what GOP voters are thinking right now.
Below is a collection of several links that we didn’t get around to writing about, but still wanted to post for readers to examine. The stories typically range from news about prominent figures in the liberty movement, national politics, the nanny state, foreign policy and free markets.
While the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is going down to the wire. According to Real Clear Politics, Toomey has led in each of the last six polls in the race, though some are in the margin of error. The latest poll from Rasmussen is right in the middle of the surveys, showing Toomey with a four point lead.
- Toomey: 50%
- Sestak: 46%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 3%
According to the survey, 81% are certain of their vote. Both candidates have favorables above water, Toomey is at 55/40, with Sestak at 51/46. Toomey leads among independents, 50% to 37%.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance. Voters also aren’t high on ObamaCare as 54% favor repeal.
Sestak has been campaigning hard in Philadelphia, which is viewed as a key to victory for him. If he can turnout the suburbs, he has a real shot at winning. A report last week The Hill indicated that the counties to watch are Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery, where independents are going to make the difference. However, it was also noted by a pollster in the article that there hasn’t been much to indicate that Sestak will win.
Marco Rubio (R) is poised to become the next United States Senator from Florida as the latest poll from Rasmussen shows him leading Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by a substantial margin.
- Rubio: 50%
- Crist: 30%
- Meek: 16%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 3%
News broke in the last week week that Crist, who has been trying to convince Meek to drop out of the race, would caucus with Democrats. This confirmed suspicion among conservative and Republican bloggers that has been around for months.
Former President Bil Clinton, who is rumored to have encouraged Meek to drop out, will be in Florida today to campaign for the Democratic nominee. So it appears that Meek will be in the race no matter what.
According to the survey, Rubio is vastly popular in the state as 58% of voters view him favorably. Crist is also view favorably by 51% of voters and also receives high marks for his performance as Governor. However, as he has moved to the left and President Barack Obama, Crist’s support has declined.
Rubio should win easily on Tuesday night.
The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to hold a lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
- Johnson: 53%
- Feingold: 46%
- Not sure: 1%
Johnson has held a lead in this race since mid-July, frequently breaking the 50% mark and occasionally by double-digits.
Johnson is carrying independents, 60% to 39%, over Feingold. Johnson is also view much more favorably (58/41) than Feingold (49/48).
The crosstabs show that 86% are certain of their vote. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor repeal of ObamaCare. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.
With just six days to go, the hotly contested race between Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle remains close. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen:
- Angle: 49%
- Reid: 45%
- Other: 4%
- Not sure: 2%
The poll indicates that the time to change minds is running out as 92% are certain of their vote. Three percents (3%) are not certain of their vote and 5% have no initial preference. The candidates favorables/unfavorables are still under water. Reid is at 43/56, Angle is 46/52.
Independents are still breaking going to Angle, 57% to 32%, over Reid. On unemployment, which is at 14.4% in Nevada, 65% believe that it will be the same or worse in 12 months. And 59% support repeal of ObamaCare, which Reid helped usher threw the Senate.
There are already allegations of voter fraud as some voters in Clark County complained that Reid’s name was already checked. This promoted accusations from Angle campaign that Reid intends to steal the election.
Here is a look at the most recent ad from Angle, which slams Reid for various verbal missteps: