As mentioned in today’s GOP Presidential Power Rankings, Mitt Romney now leads in South Carolina, an important early primary state, and Newt Gingrich has fallen to third thanks to a surging Rick Santorum.
Here are the results of the new Rasmussen poll:
- Mitt Romney: 27%
- Rick Santorum: 24%
- Newt Gingrich: 18%
- Ron Paul: 11%
- Rick Perry: 5%
- Jon Huntsman: 2%
Romney’s lead has also been confirmed by surveys conducted by Public Polling Polling and CNN/Time, and he’s outside of the margin of error in those polls. This is obviously good news for Romney, who may wind up with a clean sweep of the four January primaries. The bad news for Romney is that Gingrich still has time to impact the race in the two weeks between the New Hampshire and South Carolina primary.
Speaking of Santorum; yes, he has managed to receive a bump in the polls, but his numbers are really limited to social conservatives. Fiscal conservatives are rightfully skeptical of him and are largely staying with other candidates. That gives you the feeling that Santorum has reached ceiling.
Things seem to be changing fast in Iowa. As was noted yesterday with CNN’s latest poll, Rick Santorum is starting to climb in the polls and Mitt Romney is beginning to emerge as a frontrunner in the state. Although there are questions about CNN’s sample and methodology, that seems to be backed up with the latest numbers out of the state from Rasmussen:
- Mitt Romney: 23%
- Ron Paul: 22%
- Rick Santorum: 16%
- Newt Gingrich: 13%
- Rick Perry: 13%
- Michele Bachmann: 5%
- Jon Huntsman: 3%
The Washington Post explains that the two main factors behind Santorum’s surge is that social conservatives abandoned Newt Gingrich and he now had some money to run ads in the Iowa. Previously, Santorum was the most underfunded candidates in the race. But this is probably to “too little, too late” for Santorum, though a third place finish would certainly justify him staying in the race.
Romney’s steady rise in Iowa is just as interesting since he was thought to have written off the state a few months ago. It’s not necessarily what his campaign is doing in the state. What really is playing to his advantage is a fractured conservative movement.
Looking at recent national polls, the same narrative seems to be playing out. Gallup reported yesterday in its national poll that Romney has now surpassed Gingrich for the first time since daily tracking began earlier this month.
We have another poll coming out of Iowa. This one comes from Rasmussen Reports, a GOP-leaning firm. If you’re a Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich supporter, then you’re not going to like the results.
While the previous three polls out of the state — from Iowa State University, Public Policy Polling, and Insider Advantage — showed Paul with a anywhere from a 3-6 point lead, Rasmussen shows Romney building on his lead from the survey they conducted last week.
- Mitt Romney: 25% (+2)
- Ron Paul: 20% (+2)
- Newt Gingrich: 17% (-3)
- Rick Perry: 10% (—)
- Rick Santorum: 10% (+4)
- Michele Bachmann: 6% (-3)
- Jon Huntsman: 4% (-1)
- Other/Not sure: 9%
That’s not to say I don’t believe Rasmussen, but it looks like most are conceeding that Paul will win the Iowa caucus; though his chances for winning the nomination are still very low. The problem for Romney is that a Paul win in Iowa could have influence on the New Hampshire primary, where he needs to do will in order to not worry about South Carolina.
And let’s keep in mind that Iowa is a caucus state, which is different from a traditional primary. Campaign organization is key here, and we know that Romney is investing a lot of resources there — but he isn’t giving up on it either. Gingrich, from what I’ve heard, is struggling to build a solid team. And we shouldn’t underestimate Santorum, though we all want to. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish ahead of Gingrich.
The race for the Republican presidential nomination is beginning to get interesting as the gap in the polls between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney begins to close, according to the latest numbers from Gallup.
- Rick Perry: 31%
- Mitt Romney: 24%
- Ron Paul: 13%
- Michele Bachmann: 5%
- Newt Gingrich: 5%
- Herman Cain: 5%
- Rick Santorum: 2%
- Jon Huntsman: 1%
- Other: 4%
- No opinion: 10%
Perry did pick up two points from last the Gallup survey in the race. But Romney gained substantially, jumping from 17% to 24% in just a few weeks. While he’s still in third overall, Ron Paul is held steady. Michele Bachmann, continuing the trend irrelevance in the race, fell sharply from 10% in late August to 5%.
It’s bad news for Perry because he is beginning to fall back to earth. Moreover, Perry lost ground in a potential head-to-head matchup with President Barack Obama (he was tied last month) while Romney remained steady.
- Obama: 50%
- Perry: 45%
- Other: 3%
- No opinion: 2%
Over and over again, I get told that Ron Paul isn’t a serious candidate. After all, he’s Ron Paul. However, Jason posted yesterday showing a recent Rasmussen poll of Iowa of voters likely to take part in the Iowa Caucus that clearly shows Paul is among the so-called top tier of candidates:
A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of those likely to participate in the Iowa GOP Caucus shows that Perry is the first choice for 29%. Essentially tied for second are Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann at 18% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 17%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 14% of the vote, and nobody else currently reaches the five percent (5%) mark. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
With the margin of error at on +/- 3%, Paul is clearly holding his own against everyone but Rick Perry. However, historically, front runner status this early isn’t always an indication of later victory. He wouldn’t be the first candidate to crash and burn later in the race. A lot of Perry’s polling comes from being the “shiny and new” candidate, though a fair amount also comes from being a very charismatic governor. While those drawn to his charisma aren’t likely to back down in the near future, the “shiny and new” crowd are likely to jump ship later.
Rassmussen released a new survey out of Iowa on Friday, their first since the Ames Straw Poll, showing Texas Gov. Rick Perry with a double-digit lead over Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
- Rick Perry: 29%
- Michele Bachmann: 18%
- Mitt Romney: 17%
- Ron Paul: 14%
According to Rasmussen, nobody else in the race polled above 5% (that info is behind a paywall and I’m reluctant to share it here), so it’s a four person race; including Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Bachmann and Romney were at 22% and 21%, respectively, in the last Rasmussen poll out of Iowa. Paul was at 16%. But there has been a shakeup in the race since then as Perry has jumped in (he polled at 12% in the last Rasmussen poll) and Tim Pawlenty has dropped out (he was at 11%).
While Public Policy Polling left him out of the Republican candidates they polled against Barack Obama (and oddly included Herman Cain, who is polling low in the GOP field), Rasmussen released a poll yesterday showing Ron Paul just 1 point down from the president.
- Obama: 39%
- Paul: 38%
- Other: 14%
- Undecided: 8%
Rasmussen also matched Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and 2008 GOP nominee for Vice President, against Obama. She didn’t fare so well, trailing by 17 points to our increasingly unpopular president.
This is the second poll this week to show Ron Paul competitive against President Obama. In case you missed it, Gallup released polling on Monday testing four GOP candidates against Obama. Ron Paul came within 2 points. Don’t look for this to be reported or anything, the media is too busy covering Jon Huntsman.
As talk of Sarah Palin running for the GOP nomination once again heats up (as seems to be the case every few months), Rasmussen brings us a poll that should remind Republicans why that would probably be a really bad idea.
- Obama: 50%
- Palin: 33%
- Other: 15%
- Not sure: 2%
Palin is expected to announce her plans after Labor Day. A few months ago, I thought all of this was for show, but now I’m not so sure. She still has dedicated supporters, so you’d have to think that she’d be a “serious” contender for the GOP nomination.
With the Ames Straw Poll this weekend, the most important date in the campaign at this point, candidates are feverishly fighting for position in Iowa. The latest from poll Rasmussen out of the Hawkeye State shows three candidates, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul within 6 points of each other and Rick Perry, who will finally announce that he is running on Saturday, isn’t far behind.
- Michele Bachmann: 22%
- Mitt Romney: 21%
- Ron Paul: 16%
- Rick Perry: 12%
- Tim Pawlenty: 11%
- Newt Gingrich: 5%
- Herman Cain: 4%
- Jon Huntsman: 2%
- Other: 7%
Pawlenty is downplaying the significance of the straw poll, that is if a “credible” candidate doesn’t win; clearly a shot at Bachmann and Paul. Nevermind that he is flirting with Huntsman and Santorum for the least likely to win the nomination, that is if you pay attention to the national polling. Even Paul, for example, has a good chance of winning, it shouldn’t been passed off as a fluke; as David Boaz notes in response to George Will:
Climate change is always a touchy subject. It generates strong feelings one way or another in most political type folks. However, a new Rassmusen poll shows that a large chunk of the American people believe that scientists have fudged the numbers somewhere along the line. How many?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 69% say it’s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data in order to support their own theories and beliefs, including 40% who say this is Very Likely. Twenty-two percent (22%) don’t think it’s likely some scientists have falsified global warming data, including just six percent (6%) say it’s Not At All Likely. Another 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here .)
The number of adults who say it’s likely scientists have falsified data is up 10 points from December 2009 .
I don’t care who you are, that’s a lot of folks. However, I can already hear some on the left clamoring about how it’s because of Fox News or whoever the boogieman is today. I wouldn’t be so sure about that if I were them. After all, Rassmusen finds that 51% of Democrats think the same thing.