Rand Paul

The November Election: RINO’s and Democrats Beware

The Democrats are going to lose, but the Republicans aren’t going to win.

There’s been a feud going on inside the Republican Party since 2007 and the issue of fiscal responsibility is finally center stage for most Americans.  This is unlike the feud of 1994, that so many in the Republican establishment hope it is.  The 1994 feud was lost by the fiscal Conservatives and gave a rebirth to Neocons and RINO’s for 12 years.

Now, in 2010, the leaderless Tea Party movement has the attention of political pundits everywhere.  Democrats don’t understand the grassroots movement and the Republican establishment is afraid of it because of what it represents: political accountability.  As Jason noted, we now have five Tea Party candidates who have secured GOP nominations for U.S. Senate.

As Jim DeMint says

These candidates are leaders in their own right.

What I’m interested in is turning this country away from its fiscal cliff — and for the first time since Reagan, I think that we have a chance for real action, not just political posturing.

And Dick Armey

[L]et us be clear about one thing: The tea party movement is not seeking a junior partnership with the Republican Party, but a hostile takeover of it.

When Republicans retake the Senate majority they may have to deal with the Tea Party and the fact that they don’t really have a majority.  I, myself, want to see a RINO and a Tea Party Senator arguing on the floor.  People need to see the duopoly for what it is, and infighting in the Republican Party will show that.

I’ll leave you with my prediction for the November election:

NRSC vs Obama

See Video

The NRSC has taken the gloves off in a hard-hitting video labeling Obama and his agenda as “Extreme”.  The most gratifying part for me, personally?  Seeing Rand Paul’s race featured.  I imagine crow has become a regular part of the Senate leaders’ diet.

KY Senate: Rand Paul opens up a 15 point lead

We interupt your Labor Day weekend to bring you a new poll out of Kentucky in the United States Senate race between Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R).

Here are the results from the Survey USA poll:

  • Paul: 55%
  • Conway: 40%
  • Undecided: 5%

The poll shows Rand Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and one of five tea party candidates that will appear on the ballot for United States Senate in November, taking 32% of self-identified Democrats and 56% of independent voters.

Other tea party candidates appearing on the ballot in November are Sharron Angle (NV), Ken Buck (CO), Mike Lee (UT) and Joe Miller (AK).

Race, the tea party and Restoring Honor

Via Reason comes this insightful (yes, that’s sarcasm) take on the tea party movement from Kate Zernike of The New York Times:

It seems the ultimate thumb in the eye: that Glenn Beck would summon the Tea Party faithful to a rally on the anniversary of the March on Washington, and address them from the very place where the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his “I have a dream” speech 47 years ago. After all, the Tea Party and its critics have been facing off for months over accusations of racism.

While I wasn’t there this past weekend, from what I’ve heard, the rally wasn’t so much about the tea party movement or even politics as it was a religious event. But don’t listen to me, listen to Tony LaRussa, manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, who happened to be in Washington, DC for the Restoring Honor rally:

“All [the critics] need to do is listen to what is happening here,” La Russa says. “They probably came in with some preconceptions. But this is all about real values and it has nothing to do with politics.”

I’m not saying that no one talked politics while they were there or didn’t show up wearing a shirt with a political message. But as I understand it, neither Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin mentioned Barack Obama or the upcoming mid-term election in their speeches.

Still, Zernike can’t help but make the correlation to racism:

Nate Silver: GOP on pace to pick up six or seven Senate seats

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, the polling and election guru, predicts that Republicans will pick up six or seven seats in the Senate, putting them just a few seats shy of the number needed to take control of that chamber:

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

Tea party candidate may knock off GOP incumbent

It appears that Sen. Lisa Murkowski may lose a primary challenge to Joe Miller by 1,492 votes (though that total may change as two precincts are outstanding):

Just when you thought it was safe for incumbents to go back in the polling booth, along come Tuesday’s Republican primaries. GOP Members of Congress who think they can return to business as usual if they regain the majority should pay attention.

The biggest shock came in Alaska, with incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski trailing unheralded challenger Joe Miller by roughly 2,000 votes with as many as 16,000 absentee ballots still to be counted. As a West Point grad, decorated Gulf War veteran and federal magistrate, Mr. Miller is no lightweight. But he was facing one of Alaska’s great family names, part of the GOP establishment that has dominated the state since it joined the union.

Though heavily outspent, Mr. Miller was helped by former Governor Sarah Palin’s endorsement and especially by Ms. Murkowski’s failure to understand the anti-Washington mood. When he asked Senator Murkowski in a debate which part of the Constitution permitted Roe v. Wade and bank bailouts, she responded that the nation might suffer if the government only funded things explicitly authorized by the Constitution. Bad answer.

Ms. Murkowski opposed ObamaCare but Alaskans punished her for her 2009 refusal to rule out a government-run health-care plan. She is learning the lesson that ousted Utah Senator Bob Bennett did: GOP voters don’t want their representatives to negotiate with President Obama. They’re looking for people who can defeat his agenda.

Quote of the Day: Who do voters fear more?

This past weekend, David Boaz, Executive Vice President of the Cato Institute, delievered this gem while discussing the Senate race in Kentucky between Rand Paul and Jack Conway:

In Kentucky, the Democrats are calling Rand Paul an extremist. Rand Paul is responding by calling his opponent a Democrat. In the end, the voters will be more scared of a Democrat.

Yeah, it’s that kind of year for Democrats.

Here is the video:

Gary Johnson On Rand Paul And Drug Legalization

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was on The Ed Show the other day talking about Rand Paul and marijuana legalization:

Keep an eye on this guy.

2010 House Election

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

House of Representatives

With Republicans expected to make gains, anywhere from 25 seats to taking control of the House (40+ seats), we thought we’d put together a list of the more competitive races, so you can get an idea of who is in trouble.

Below is a list of the 92 most competitive House seats. We used Rothenberg Political Report and Real Clear Politics to determine what races should be listed.

We’ll link polling as they come available.

2010 Senate Election

In an effort to keep you up to date on the upcoming mid-term elections, we’ve put together a list of the most vulnerable seats in Congress. This page contains the seats up for election in the United States Senate. Click here to view vulnerable or toss-up seats in the House of Representatives.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

United States Senate

Republicans are expected to do well in the House of Representatives (you can view House races below) with current projections showing control of that chamber up for grabs. The Senate has been overlooked, for the most part. Though prospects for a Republican takeover are unlikely, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Democrats currently hold 59 seats in the Senate, including two independents that caucus with them. Republicans hold 41 seats. There are 37 seats up for grabs this year, of those 17 are competitive.

The first table shows the competitive seats, races that pollsters and analysts generally consider to be worth watching or seats that there is an expected switch in party control.

Competitive Senate Races

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