It’s been awhile since we’ve posted the GOP Presidential Power Rankings. Honestly, I needed a break from the race. But with the first votes being cast on January 3rd in Iowa, we need to crank it up again.
- We are now less than a year away from the 2012 Presidential Election; 364 days to be exact (November 6, 2012).
- The latest numbers from Gallup show Obama and Romney tied. However, he leads Perry and Cain both nationally and in “swing states.”
- A generic Republican beats Obama on key issues in swing states.
- Jim Pethokoukis notes a recent election forcast model showing that the odds of Obama being re-elected are declining.
- Whoever wins the GOP primary will, along with Obama, face a skeptical electorate.
- Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will not endorse in the GOP primary.
It’s been another interesting week in the battle for the Republican nomination for president. Rick Perry continues his free fall as Herman Cain benefits from a substantial amount of press coming off his straw poll win in Florida. Of course, Romney stands to benefit from this as he hasn’t had much of a tea party appeal.
In this latest version of our Power Rankings, Cain and Newt Gingrich are moved up, Bachmann drops down into the bottom tier. And while may disagree with this, Romney moves back to the top.
The following was submitted by Nick Nottleman, a reader and concerned American.
The 2000 Presidential Election pitted George W. Bush against then Vice President Al Gore. Ralph Nader from the Green Party received 2.74 % of the popular vote and no other candidate received more than .5% of the popular vote. But the two main characters in this play were George W. Bush and Al Gore. Or were they?
While the Internet bubble was definitely bursting, the country was for the most part in decent shape. The military had been downsized considerably and for the first time in many years, there was a surplus in the Federal Budget. The Story’s villain was “The Clinton” and his sidekick, the “Blue Gobbler.” There to report it all, the likes of Rush Limbaugh and several reporters at Fox News.
In the 2012 election, the same strategy seems to be being deployed. An article at the Daily Caller quotes a Rasmussen poll:
A generic Republican presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by a five-point margin if the election were held today, according to a poll released Tuesday by Rasmussen.
The as-yet-unnamed Republican candidate leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent. This is the fourth consecutive week that Rasmussen’s polling has found a generic Republican candidate with a lead.
And Rasmussen is not alone.
Wait a second… you mean to say anyone with an (R) behind their name beats President Obama?
Because the general consensus being built is that any Republican would be a better president. On a semi-sane day, I might actually agree with that premise, but I prefer life out on the fringe. You know, where things like realizing THAT IS EXACTLY HOW WE ENDED UP WITH George W. Bush happens!
By almost all accounts, Michelle Nunn is going to make the U.S. Senate race in Georgia very interesting. The daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) has outraised her potential Republican opponents and the most recent poll out of the Peach State found that she’s statistically tied with most of them.
How has Nunn managed to make this red-leaning state competitive? Our friends at Peach Pundit offer an example. In their morning email, they explain that Nunn, a Democrat, doesn’t mention her party very often. In fact, in her first ad of the cycle, her campaign plays up stereotypical Republican themes:
President Barack Obama may be dogged by low approval ratings in the United States — you know, where it matters. But he can look forward to book tours and speaking engagements in Europe when presidency is over, because they still love him:
Crowds lined the streets of Brussels, The Hague and Rome to catch a glimpse of Obama’s motorcade. The crowd watching Obama’s speech at the Palais des Beaux Arts in Brussels was described as “star-struck.”
Obama is so popular in the Netherlands, where he began his trip, that there’s an Obama Club, PRI reports. Its members get together and discuss issues relevant to Obama’s presidency, including foreign policy and diversity.
“These countries in Western Europe are really Obama countries,” historian Willem Post told the PRI radio show “The World.” “I think that has to do with the fact that this is a U.S. president who calls himself a global citizen [and urges] diplomacy first.”
Wait, what? President Obama “urges diplomacy first”? Like he did in Libya in 2011 and, more recently, tried to do in Syria, right? Europe may still be buying unicorns and fairy dust, but in the United States, the economy is stagnant, nearly five years after the official end of the Great Recession. We’re spending more as a percentage of the economy than before the recession, racking up a national debt of more than $17.5 trillion.
There were no balloons and confetti this weekend to mark the fourth anniversary of the signing of the Affordable Care Act. The law has come the most polarizing issue in the country, one that is almost certainly going to play a role in the 2014 mid-term election.
CNN host John King went through the most recent poll numbers from Pew Research this weekend, noting that Obamacare “is on life support,” as 53% of Americans disapprove of Obamacare, while just 41% approve.
Facing the real possibility of a Republican wave this fall, Democrats have pivoted on the “fix” Obamacare message, one that didn’t do much good for them in the recent Florida special congressional election. Peter Suderman recently explained that the “fix” message doesn’t really make much sense because Democrats aren’t saying how they would do to actually address problems with the law:
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, says that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi isn’t living in reality if she believes that Obamacare is a winning issue for House Democrats running in swing districts.
“Look, Nancy Pelosi is from a deeply blue district. I have no doubt in her district, the San Francisco area, you can be for Obamacare and not have any electoral problems,” said Sabato during a Thursday appearance on Your World w/ Neil Cavuto. “The difficultly for Pelosi and the Democrats is, in every single reliable survey for more than a year a plurality or majority of Americans have been opposed to Obamacare, for a variety of reasons.”
The seven most recent survey show that an average of nearly 54% of Americans oppose Obamacare, while 39% support the law, according to Real Clear Politics. To find a survey in which support for Obamacare was above water, one has to go back to January 2013. Just eight polls taken since March 2011 found a net-positive support for Obamacare. That’s a stunning figure.
“She’s arguing the best defense is a good offense,” said Sabato. “The problem with that is when you’re on offense, using your time in the public arena to discuss a subject that people have more or less already made up their minds about, and they don’t like it, you’re wasting your time in the arena.”
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius visited New Orleans yesterday to promote Obamacare, part of the administration’s final push to boost enrollment before the clock runs out on March 31.
Guess who decided to skip out on the event? Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), even though the Senate was not in session and no committee meetings were on the books, according to the chamber calendar. Bayou Buzz pointed out that Landrieu wasn’t mentioned on the official schedule sent out by HHS, nor was there any mention of her in The Times-Picayune’s coverage of the event.
Her brother, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, appeared alongside Sebelius to promote the unpopular law. He tweeted out this photo of him standing behind the HHS secretary, no Mary Landrieu to be found.
Landrieu avoided appearing with President Barack Obama when he visited New Orleans in November, claiming that she had another event scheduled. She did, however, travel with him in Air Force One.
More than a month after his controversial appointment, Sen. John Walsh (D-MT), has been unable to gain any traction in a race that is looking more and more likely to change hands this fall, making it one of the six seats Republicans need to take control of the Senate.
The latest poll out of Montana, conducted by Rasmussen Reports, finds that Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT) holds a 14-point lead, 51/37, over Walsh.
Daines also holds an 18-point lead, 52/34, over another Democratic candidate, former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, who is seen as a long-shot to knock off Walsh in the party’s June 3 primary.
Rather than picking a placeholder, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) appointed then-Lt. Gov. Walsh to the seat last month after Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) was confirmed to serve as the next U.S. Ambassador to China. Baucus was already not running for reelection, having announced his retirement early last year. He wasn’t nominated for the diplomatic post until December. Walsh announced his campaign in October.
Walsh is seen as Democrats’ best shot at keeping the seat in their hands, and they’d hoped that the appointment would give him time to establish himself as someone who is independent of his party and raise his profile.
Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is currently traveling around the Commonwealth of Virginia to build support for his push to expand Medicaid and apply pressure to the Republican-controlled House of Delegates to get behind the biggest initiative of his nascent term in office.
Virginians, however, haven’t been swayed by McAuliffe’s arguments for Medicaid expansion, part of Obamacare made optional through the 2012 Supreme Court decision in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius.
A poll commissioned by the Foundation for Government Accountability found that though likely voters initially support Medicaid expansion by a very small margin, their moods shift as they learn more about it.
Voters were first asked, “The Legislature and Governor are deciding whether or not to expand Virginia’s Medicaid program to give taxpayer-funded Medicaid health coverage to 400,000 mostly working-age, non-disabled adults with no kids. Knowing this, do you support or oppose expanding Medicaid in Virginia?”
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters said that they support Medicaid expansion, while 41% oppose it (numbers have been rounded). That’s within the poll’s +/- 4.5 margin of error. Around 13% were undecided.