It’s been awhile since we’ve posted the GOP Presidential Power Rankings. Honestly, I needed a break from the race. But with the first votes being cast on January 3rd in Iowa, we need to crank it up again.
- We are now less than a year away from the 2012 Presidential Election; 364 days to be exact (November 6, 2012).
- The latest numbers from Gallup show Obama and Romney tied. However, he leads Perry and Cain both nationally and in “swing states.”
- A generic Republican beats Obama on key issues in swing states.
- Jim Pethokoukis notes a recent election forcast model showing that the odds of Obama being re-elected are declining.
- Whoever wins the GOP primary will, along with Obama, face a skeptical electorate.
- Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) will not endorse in the GOP primary.
It’s been another interesting week in the battle for the Republican nomination for president. Rick Perry continues his free fall as Herman Cain benefits from a substantial amount of press coming off his straw poll win in Florida. Of course, Romney stands to benefit from this as he hasn’t had much of a tea party appeal.
In this latest version of our Power Rankings, Cain and Newt Gingrich are moved up, Bachmann drops down into the bottom tier. And while may disagree with this, Romney moves back to the top.
The following was submitted by Nick Nottleman, a reader and concerned American.
The 2000 Presidential Election pitted George W. Bush against then Vice President Al Gore. Ralph Nader from the Green Party received 2.74 % of the popular vote and no other candidate received more than .5% of the popular vote. But the two main characters in this play were George W. Bush and Al Gore. Or were they?
While the Internet bubble was definitely bursting, the country was for the most part in decent shape. The military had been downsized considerably and for the first time in many years, there was a surplus in the Federal Budget. The Story’s villain was “The Clinton” and his sidekick, the “Blue Gobbler.” There to report it all, the likes of Rush Limbaugh and several reporters at Fox News.
In the 2012 election, the same strategy seems to be being deployed. An article at the Daily Caller quotes a Rasmussen poll:
A generic Republican presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by a five-point margin if the election were held today, according to a poll released Tuesday by Rasmussen.
The as-yet-unnamed Republican candidate leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent. This is the fourth consecutive week that Rasmussen’s polling has found a generic Republican candidate with a lead.
And Rasmussen is not alone.
Wait a second… you mean to say anyone with an (R) behind their name beats President Obama?
Because the general consensus being built is that any Republican would be a better president. On a semi-sane day, I might actually agree with that premise, but I prefer life out on the fringe. You know, where things like realizing THAT IS EXACTLY HOW WE ENDED UP WITH George W. Bush happens!
A new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, via the National Journal, found that white women, a crucial block of voters for Democrats, have an increasingly unfavorable of Obamacare (emphasis added):
The Kaiser poll, which has been conducted monthly since Obamacare’s inception, shows the law has never been a big hit with white women. But this group’s opinions took a sharply negative turn in the November results.
According to Kaiser, 40 percent of college-educated white women hold a “very unfavorable” view of the law—10 points higher than a month ago. An additional 10 percent view the law “somewhat unfavorably.” A month ago, those two groups together totaled just 42 percent.
That’s not damning in and of itself, but this is the one slice of the white electorate where Democrats usually perform well. President Obama won 46 percent of the group in 2012, and even that was an underwhelming showing compared with recent Democratic presidential candidates.
And that’s not all. Democrats should be far more worried about white women who do not have a higher education. The numbers are astounding: In the latest Kaiser poll, 50 percent have a “very unfavorable” view of the law—9 points higher than in October. An additional 13 percent view it “somewhat unfavorably.” Indeed, antipathy among blue-collar white women runs even deeper than the most conservative white demographic group, blue-collar white men (59 percent of whom hold an unfavorable view, Kaiser found).
Some of President Obama’s most ardent apologists spent some time on the Sunday talk show circuit desperately trying to spin the Obamacare implementation disaster and the millions of insurance cancellation notices that Americans are receiving because of the law’s narrowly written grandfathered plan regulations.
The message was that President Obama didn’t lie when he said people could keep their health plans under Obamacare, Americans just misunderstood what he was saying, and that people still trust him. Or something.
During a panel discussion on ABC’s This Week, Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN), one of the most leftist members of the House, tried to spin President Obama’s oft-repeated, now-infamous promise. The problem is that the Minnesota Democrat was incredibly misleading in doing so.
“You know, I just want to say that I think that everything that the president said and did was in pursuit of trying to get Americans, all Americans health care. So I think even though he may have said, if you like your decent insurance, your insurance that works, then you can keep it, I think that people really get that,” Ellison said. “He owned it. He said, look, man, if you misunderstood what I was trying to say, I’m sorry about that.”
“I think that shows integrity. He didn’t do anything to self-promote. He did — what he was doing he was trying to do — to help Americans all over this country for decades,” he added.
In early 2010, when congressional Democrats were facing furor back home from constituents over healthcare reform, some remembered the 1994 Republican Revolution feared a similar wave could build and that they could be swept from office.
Then-Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR) recounted part of the discussion, telling a local Arkansas paper that the White House wasn’t worried about voter backlash and that President Obama believed that he was an asset to Democrats that could help assuage voters’ concerns.
“They just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all,” Berry, who didn’t run for re-election in 2010, told the Arkansas Democrat Gazette. “They just kept telling us how good [Obamacare] was going to be.
“The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now,” he added.
President Obama has relied on his personal likeability and goodwill from voters, even if they disapproved of his job performance, to advance his agenda and win re-election. But a poll from CNN shows that a majority of voters don’t believe that he is honest and trustworthy and that they’re now questioning his management of the government.
The poll shows that 53% of Americans reject the notion that President Obama is a “strong and decisive leader,” up from 48% in June, and another 56% say that he doesn’t inspire confidence, up from 50% in September.
Fifty-three percent (53%) don’t believe that President Obama is “honest and trustworthy,” up from 49% in September, and 60% say that he doesn’t manage the government effectively.
There hasn’t been much polling in competitive Senate races since the Obamacare meltdown began. But what has come out has been generally bad news from Democratic incumbents running for re-election in states won by Mitt Romney in 2012.
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is learning this the hard way. Her unwavering support of Obamacare has driven her approval rating downward, according to a poll released last week by Southern Media and Opinion Research, a Louisiana-based polling firm.
Though Landrieu insists that she’s “not concerned about anything” in regard to her re-election, the poll found that 46% of Louisiana voters approve of her’s job performance, a 10-point drop from six months ago, while 51% disapprove.
There isn’t much good in terms of prospects for re-election. Obamacare is clearly her biggest hurdle to overcome, as the poll found that just 34% support the law, while 59% are against it.
An astonishing 70% of undecided voters — and 54% of all voters surveyed — said that they would less likely to vote for Landrieu because she backs Obamacare.
Landrieu does hold a lead against her two Republican opponents, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Rob Maness. In the three-way race, Landrieu takes 41% to Cassidy’s 34%. Maness attracts 10% of voters.
Cassidy has received support from most Republicans in the state and around the country. Maness, a retired Air Force colonel, is an insurgent candidate who has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund.
The hits just keep on coming. On top of the last week’s brutal Quinnipiac poll and the equally terrible Washington Post/ABC News survey released on Tuesday, new numbers from CBS News show President Barack Obama’s approval rating down to 37% and opposition to Obamacare rising to 60%:
President Obama’s job approval rating has plunged to the lowest of his presidency, according to a new CBS News poll released Wednesday, and Americans’ approval of the Affordable Care Act has dropped to its lowest since CBS News started polling on the law.
Thirty-seven percent now approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, down from 46 percent in October — a nine point drop in just a month. Mr. Obama’s disapproval rating is 57 percent — the highest level for this president in CBS News Polls.
President Barack Obama has faced an avalanche of bad numbers since the embarrassing launch of the federal Obamacare exchange website and reports of millions of insurance cancellations, but the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has to be among the worst, if not the worst (emphasis added):
The flawed rollout of the Affordable Care Act has pushed President Obama to the lowest point of his presidency, with dwindling faith in his competence and in many of the personal attributes that have buoyed him in the past, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Opposition to the new health-care law also hit a record high in the survey, with 57 percent saying they oppose the president’s most significant domestic initiative. Forty-six percent say they are strongly against it. Just a month ago, as the enrollment period was beginning, the public was almost evenly divided in its assessments of the law.
Disapproval of Obama’s handling of the health-care law’s rollout stands at 63 percent, with a majority saying they strongly disapprove. Last month, 53 percent disapproved.
[Obama’s] overall approval rating has fallen to 42 percent, having dropped six percentage points in a month, and equals his record low in Post-ABC polls. His disapproval rating stands at 55 percent, which is the worst of his presidency. Forty-four percent say they strongly disapprove of the way he is handling his job, also the worst of his presidency.
The number of Americans who don’t believe that the federal government has a responsibility to ensure that everyone hasn’t health insurance coverage is on the rise, according to a new poll from Gallup.
The poll found that just 42% of Americans believe that the federal government should take responsibility to ensure health coverage, down from 50% just two years ago. In 2006, 69% believed it was a government responsibility.
A majority of Americans, 56%, said that the federal government doesn’t have a responsibility to ensure health coverage. That’s up 10 points from 2011 and a substantial shift in opinion since 2000.
The poll comes amid a disastrous rollout of Obamacare, which has further soured public opinion toward the law. Gallup also noted, separately, that 53% of Americans disapprove of President Obama’s job performance. Just 41% approve.
Gallup notes that 86% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 30% of Democrats oppose a federal government role in ensuring health insurance coverage. As you can see below, the shift really began in 2009 when the debate over healthcare reform began in Washington.