United Liberty

Two polls out of West Virginia, by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling, give us a very different picture of the race for United States Senate between John Raese (R) and Gov. Joe Manchin (D).

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, shows Raese taking a lead over Manchin, though inside the margin of error:

• Raese: 46%
• Manchin: 43%
• Undecided: 10%

This poll shows Barack Obama’s approval rating at 30%, while 64% disapprove of him. Sixty-three percent oppose the health care “reform” law passed by Congress earlier this year. West Virginians prefer that Republicans take control of Congress, 54% to 37%.

Despite the low numbers of Obama, Manchin’s numbers are reversed, 59% approve of his job performance. Only 32% disapprove. However, independent voters are backing Raese, 56% to 30%.

Rasmussen still shows Manchin over Raese, slightly increasing his lead:

• Manchin: 50%
• Raese: 43%
• Other: 1%
• Not sure: 5%

There isn’t too much different in the crosstabs from Rasmussen, Manchin is viewed favorably by 71% of voters. Raese is viewed favorably by 53%. Sixty-four percent want ObamaCare repealed and 64% disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Raese still leads among independent voters, but not as wide of a margin, 49% to 36%.

We’re not ready to call this race a toss-up yet, but this is one to keep an eye on if Raese is able to tie Manchin to national Democrats.

If you remember, Rasmussen recently showed Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) down by seven points to his GOP challenger, Ron Johnson. This wasn’t the first poll to show Johnson building a lead, but the first to show a lead outside of the margin of error.

On Monday via Twitter, Markos Moulitsas, founder of the Daily Kos, gave a teaser of the results of a new poll in the Senate race in Wisconsin:

New PPP results for dkos, will post tomorrow — Feingold down by double digits, MASSIVE intensity gap. W/o gap, it’d be tied race.

So here are the results of the Daily Kos-sponsored poll conducted by Public Policy Polling (crosstabs available here):

• Johnson: 52%
• Feingold: 41%
• Undecided: 7%

And that enthusiasm gap? It’s an issue for Feingold:

Wisconsin is seeing one of the most severe enthusiasm gaps in the country.  If turnout matched 2008 Johnson would be leading Feingold only 47-46 and Barrett would be ahead of Walker 46-44.  Right now these races look very difficult but if Democrats wake up between now and November they have the potential to become toss ups.

Feingold is underwater in his approval rating, 40% approve, but 53% disapprove. Forty-six percent approve of Johnson, while 34% disapprove. Johnson also has an 11 point lead over Feingold among independent voters, 51% to 40%.

Despite trailing in the polls to Pat Toomey, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is campaigning along side President Barack Obama, who isn’t popular in Pennsylvania:

Obama tried to whip up some enthusiasm for Mr. Sestak, a former Navy admiral who is trailing in the polls behind Pat Toomey, a Republican who is former congressman and former president of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group. The president appeared at two fundraisers for Mr. Sestak; the Sestak campaign said nearly 1,000 tickets had been sold, at prices ranging from $50 to $250 for a rally, and $1,000 to $2,400 for a dinner and reception.

“The choice in this election could not be clearer and the stakes could not be higher,’’ Mr. Obama said. “Everybody’s been talking about insiders in Washington. Well, Joe’s not one of the insiders whose been part of the problem. Instead he’s been solving problems in Washington. He didn’t go there with a liberal or a conservative agenda – he went to serve the people of Pennsylvania just like he’s served his country for the past three decades.’’

A new poll from CBS and the New York Times continues shows lack of public support for ObamaCare, despite many attempts by President Barack Obama to sell it, reports Philip Klein at the American Spectator:

A new CBS/New York Times poll has found that 49 percent of Americans oppose the health care law, compared with just 37 percent who support it.

ObamaCare booster Jonathan Cohn, while acknowledging that recent polls have been discouraging, sees some silver lining in the CBS/NYT poll. He notes that “While 40 percent of respondents said they supported repealing the Affordable Care Act, more than half changed their minds (leaving just 19 percent in favor of repeal) when pollsters mentioned that it’d mean letting insurance companies exclude people with pre-existing conditions.”

Yet this is the same argument that proponents of the legislation have used all along to explain poor poll results — that it’s more popular when you ask seperately about its component parts. The problem is that the popular parts are linked to other less popular parts to make up the whole. When you force insurers to cover those with pre-existing conditions, it means imposing an individual mandate, which remains highly unpopular. Had pollsters asked whether voters would favor repeal if it meant ending the requirement that people purchase government-approved insurance policies or pay a tax, I’m sure the pro-repeal numbers would have shot up.

Well, almost everything, according to a recent survey by Gallup asking Americans adults (not registered or likely voters) what they thought about legislation passed by Congress since President Barack Obama took office last year, such as ObamaCare, the stimulus and auto bailouts. Um, yeah, they’re not real happy.

Here is a look at the party breakdown:

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has put an ad on the air in Kentucky slamming Jack Conway, who trails Rand Paul by as much as a 15 points, for backing ObamaCare and refusing to join a lawsuit challenging its constitutionality.

On Friday, I posted a poll from West Virginia showing John Raese within five points of Gov. Joe Machin in the race for United States Senate. In an interview with Jim Geraghty at the National Review, pollster Scott Rasmussen senses that this race one to watch between now and November:

GERAGHTY: Any under-the-radar race you’re keeping your eye on? Any upset special?

RASMUSSEN: The race that I would potentially put in that category right now is the West Virginia Senate race. We have one poll out showing it a very competitive race. It’s clear that President Obama is not a welcome figure in West Virginia politics. But [Democratic nominee] Joe Manchin is so popular as governor that it was thought to be a safe seat. So that’s a potential upset special.

Manchin’s popularity may be what saves him in the end, but as I noted on Friday, Raese is going to tie him to President Barack Obama, who is enormously unpopular in West Virginia, as much as he can over the next two months.

It looks like we have a race in West Virginia between Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and John Raese (R), as the latest Rasmussen poll shows the GOP nominee within five points. Manchin lead Raese by as much as 16 points in July, shortly after the death of Sen. Robert Byrd.

• Manchin: 50%
• Raese: 45%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 3%

The crosstabs show overwhelming opposition to ObamaCare as 65% favor repeal of the law passed in March and 49% believing that repeal with be good for the economy. Sixty-two percent “strongly disapprove” or “somewhat disapprove” of President Barack Obama’s performance. Raese is also doing very well with independents, leading Manchin 61% to 30% with them.

Raese is using this to his advantage, tying Manchin to the president and ObamaCare in his first campaign ad.

While many on the left are making a big deal out of one of Rand Paul’s campaign staffers acting as a sock-puppet for his candidate on the Daily Kos, another poll out of Kentucky shows the Republican nominee with a 15 point lead over Jack Conway, the Democratic nominee, in the race for United States Senate. This new poll from Rasmussen echoes a poll from earlier this week conducted by Survey USA.

Here are the results:

• Paul: 54%
• Conway: 39%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 4%

Paul carries 20 point lead among independents. Forty-eight percent of respondents list “economic issues” as their biggest concern. Seventy-four percent say they are “very angry” or “somewhat angry” at the policies of the government.

Paul has launched his first ad, making clear his opposition to ObamaCare, which his opponent supports.

The latest poll out of Florida, conducted by Sunshine State News, shows Marco Rubio (R) continuing to hold a strong lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). The 14 point lead represents the largest lead Rubio has had since March.

Here is a look at he poll:

• Rubio: 43%
• Crist: 29%
• Meek: 23%
• Undecided: 5%

No crosstabs were available, but here is an idea of what is going on and what Sunshine State News sees as we head into the fall:

Rubio’s lead at this stage in the race is due to his fairly broad appeal across the political spectrum, primarily among GOP voters and independents, the latter of which is what’s really hurting Crist,” said Jim Lee, president of VSS.

“Among independents, Rubio even leads Crist narrowly, 38 percent to 36 percent,” Lee said. Meek garners just 16 percent of independents.

Rubio captures a solid 70 percent of GOP voters vs. just 21 percent for Crist and 6 percent for Meek, the poll reveals. Among Democrats, Meek won a modest 45 percent of the vote, with Crist at 35 percent and Rubio 14 percent.

“Crist can’t win this race if he doesn’t peel back some of Rubio’s support among independents,” Lee said. “With only 5 percent of voters remaining undecided, there is not a lot of room to grow for any of the candidates.”

This one is going to be closer than the polling indicates. Rubio needs to continue to work to ensure that his base doesn’t get complacent as it looks like the GOP is heading to a substantial victory across the country in November.