United Liberty

The two most recent polls out of Pennsylvania show Pat Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for United States Senate, which had been showing signs over the last week or so. However, in the last few days Toomey has been increasing his lead.

A CNN/Time survey shows Toomey up by four points:

• Toomey: 49%
• Sestak: 45%
• Other: 3%
• Undecided: 3%

Toomey has a 13 point lead among independents. The poll also shows that 52% of voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

The daily tracking poll from Muhlenburg/Morning Call has showed Toomey hovering between 46% to 48% the last few days, but here are the results from yesterday (new results will be released today):

• Toomey: 46%
• Sestak: 41%
• Undecided: 12%

Toomey also dropped his closing ad, which briefly discusses the birth of his new child and worries about jobs and the national debt:

In the latest poll from Florida’s Eighth Congressional District, Daniel Webster is maintaining a seven point lead over Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson, a controversial freshman who has hurt himself by running misleading and false ads about his opponent:

• Webster: 48%
• Grayson: 41%
• Other: 5%
• Undecided: 5%

Webster leads among independents, 48% to 33%, and viewed more favorably, 47/33, than Grayson, who is viewed unfavorably by 55% of voters in the district. But here is the kicker from the poll:

Since the Sunshine State News Poll shows Webster’s margin widening to 11 points among voters who say they are most likely to cast ballots (51-40), [Voter Survey Service President Jim] Lee projected that the Republican could top 50 percent on election night.

The seat has been viewed as a likely GOP pick-up for sometime, but even if the GOP doesn’t take the House and Alan Grayson loses, I’d be happy.

There were two new polls released out of Kentucky yesterday in the race for United States Senate between Rand Paul and Jack Conway. Both polls show Paul with a lead in a race that has gotten absolutely out of control in the last couple of weeks.

The first poll is from Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research:

• Paul: 50%
• Conway: 43%
• Other: 2%
• Not sure: 5%

You can check out the crosstabs here.

According to the poll, 56% are voting to express opposition to the policies of President Barack Obama and his administration. Rand Paul is above water in how voters view him, 48/41 (favorable/unfavorable). Jack Conway is not doing so well at 38/51.

Public Policy Polling released numbers in this race yesterday as well. Even though they are showing Paul with a 13 point lead, I’m so skeptical of Public Policy Polling’s work, I’m not sure I believe it.

• Paul: 53%
• Conway: 40%
• Undecided: 7%

They’re polling indicates that the “Aqua Buddha” ad has completely backfired as 56% of voters believe it was inappropriate.

What the Fox News poll is probably more accurate as far as what to expect on November 2nd. Rand Paul wins by a decent margin.

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to hold a lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

• Johnson: 53%
• Feingold: 46%
• Not sure: 1%

Johnson has held a lead in this race since mid-July, frequently breaking the 50% mark and occasionally by double-digits.

Johnson is carrying independents, 60% to 39%, over Feingold. Johnson is also view much more favorably (58/41) than Feingold (49/48).

The crosstabs show that 86% are certain of their vote. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor repeal of ObamaCare. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

With just six days to go, the hotly contested race between Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle remains close. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen:

• Angle: 49%
• Reid: 45%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 2%

The poll indicates that the time to change minds is running out as 92% are certain of their vote. Three percents (3%) are not certain of their vote and 5% have no initial preference. The candidates favorables/unfavorables are still under water. Reid is at 43/56, Angle is 46/52.

Independents are still breaking going to Angle, 57% to 32%, over Reid. On unemployment, which is at 14.4% in Nevada, 65% believe that it will be the same or worse in 12 months. And 59% support repeal of ObamaCare, which Reid helped usher threw the Senate.

There are already allegations of voter fraud as some voters in Clark County complained that Reid’s name was already checked. This promoted accusations from Angle campaign that Reid intends to steal the election.

Here is a look at the most recent ad from Angle, which slams Reid for various verbal missteps:

The latest picture of what to expect on November 2nd in the House of Representatives appears to be a worst-case scenario for Democrats as Gallup’s latest polling shows a huge lead for Republicans among likely voters, though there was a slight gain for the majority party. And to make matters worse for Democrats, it’s supposed to rain on election day in 20 states.

Before we dive into what the analysts are saying, Politico offers us 35 House races to keep our eyes on as returns come in.

The latest forecast from Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight estimates a net gain of 52 seats for Republicans. This would put the make-up of the House at 231 Republicans and 204 Democrats.

Here is what Charlie Cook says about the mid-term:

The most recent survey out of Pennsylvania by Rasmussen confirms that Pat Toomey’s lead over Rep. Joe Sestak has shrunk, by he still leads by four points heading into the home stretch. Toomey blames the shrinking of his lead on the DSCC.

• Toomey: 48%
• Sestak: 44%
• Other: 1%
• Not sure: 7%

Toomey holds a 50% to 29% lead among independents over Sestak. Toomey also leads among the three issues (the economy, health care and spending) voters were asked about.

Neither candidate has been successful in labeling the other as an extremist as their numbers on this question are almost indentical. Toomey is viewed more favorably by voters (55%) that Sestak (48%).

The two candidates faced off in a debate on Friday evening in Pittsburgh, you can watch it in full below:

A day after Public Policy Polling put out a questionable survey in Pennsylvania, Morning Call released numbers from tracking they are doing in the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak.

• Sestak: 44%
• Toomey: 41%
• Not sure: 15%

Here is a look at the D/R/I breakdowns from recent polling compared to exit polling from 2006 and 2008, which were strongly Democratic years, and 2004, which saw a Republican Arlen Specter win re-election.

• Morning Call: 46/46/8
• Public Policy Polling: 48/41/11
• Rasmussen: 45/37/17
• 2008 Exit Polling: 44/38/18
• 2006 Exit Polling: 43/38/19
• 2004 Exit Polling: 41/39/20

You can see that both Morning Call and Public Policy Polling are both underweighting independents, though the former is more noticable.  This is the reason I’ve been so skeptical about polling. Adding to my argument is nearly every poll since June has showed Toomey’s support at 45% or higher. Like I said yesterday, the race is likely tightening, but there needs to be a measure of skepticism here considering that nearly every recent poll has Toomey with a decent lead.

Another point to take into account is that absentee voting in Pennsylvania has an advantage for Toomey:

The latest round of polling from The Hill shows more bad news for House Democrats as Republicans are leading or tied in all but two races:

Two-term Democrats, whose victories helped secure the Speaker’s job for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), are facing the possibility of a near-wipeout in the Nov. 2 election.

Of 10 reelection races involving sophomore Democrats, Republican challengers are ahead in six and tied in two more,  according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Of 32 battleground districts polled so far by The Hill this fall, Democrats are leading in only three, with four races tied. Republicans are ahead in 25.

Thirty of the 32 seats surveyed are now held by Democrats.

Another race showing promise, though not surveyed by The Hill, is in NY-22, where George Phillips is tied with Rep. Maurice Hinchey. You may remember his name. He’s the guy that doesn’t know what deficit reduction is.

Here is a rundown of the seats in the latest poll from The Hill:

AZ 05
Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 42%
David Schweikert (R) 45%

IL 14
Rep. Bill Foster (D) 42%
Randy Hultgren (R) 43%

IL 17
Rep. Phil Hare (D) 38%
Bobby Schilling (R) 45%

MS 01
Rep. Travis Childers (D) 39%
Alan Nunnelee (R) 44%

The race for United States Senate is tightening in Kentucky, as the race has become extremely contentious in the last week. The tense tone seemed to coalesce in a debate on Sunday evening, where Rand Paul slammed his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, for personally attacking him and his religion in an ad that even some Democrats believe went too far. Paul walked off stage without shaking his hand.

The latest poll from Rasmussen shows:

• Paul: 47%
• Conway: 42%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 7%

It’s clear the attention on his past has taken him off message, but Paul has lost more support that Conway has gained. Since the beginning of August, Conway’s support has fluctuated between 31% to 42%, that doesn’t include a poll of registered voters or the poll with the questionable model showing Conway at 47%.

Paul is considering skipping the next debate, but with a poll showing his opponent within five point, he may have to attend.