Polling

Obama holds small leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania

New polls out of Ohio and Pennsylvania, both could be crucial to Republicans in 2012, show President Barack Obama with small leads over prospective Republican opponents, including Rick Perry and Mitt Romney:

President Obama holds extremely narrow leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Perry in Pennsylvania and Ohio, two large swing states he won in 2008, according to new polls from Quinnipiac University.

In Ohio, Obama leads Romney by 44 percent to 42, and leads Perry by 44 percent to 41. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by 45 percent to 43 and has a 46 percent to 40 percent lead over Perry.
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Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points and Ohio by five points in 2008.

Ohio is particularly important since the eventual winner of the presidential race has carried the state since 1896. According to the poll, 51% of voters in Ohio don’t believe that Obama deserves re-election and 52% disapprove of his job performance.

Many believe Pennsylvania is ripe for the GOP due to the success they had during last year’s mid-terms and Obama’s 54% disapproval rating. Like Ohio, 51% of Keystone State voters don’t believe Obama deserves re-election.

If the economy gets worse or stays the same, it means that Republicans would likely pick up both states, depending on the nominee, as most undecided voters break against an incumbent.

CNN poll: Romney slightly closes the gap with Perry

We can begin to assess the damage that Rick Perry has done to himself thanks to CNN releasing the first post-debate numbers. The poll (we’re going with the numbers that exclude Sarah Palin), conducted between September 23-25, shows Perry’s dropping by two points over the last couple of weeks; from 32% to 30%. Mitt Romney only picked up a point, but has narrowed the lead to single-digits.

  • Rick Perry: 30%
  • Mitt Romney: 22%
  • Newt Gingrich: 11%
  • Herman Cain: 9%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Michele Bachmann: 6%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Other: 3%
  • None/No opinion: 8%

Perry’s lead over Romney is slightly narrowed even more — 28% to 21% — if you include Palin. But back to the numbers above. Gingrich sees a four point jump from the last CNN poll, despite done better than 8% since mid-July. Cain gained three points. Ron Paul dropped by six points, which is bad news. Bachmann, as you’ve probably noticed, is now in the bottom tier of GOP candidates; though she is still within the margin of error of Paul and Cain.

The poll also shows President Barack Obama’s approval rating at 45%, while 52% disapprove. Interestingly, 62% of respondents to the poll believe that Romney “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” That’s better than Obama, who grabs 58% of voters on that question. Another 52% disagree with Obama on the issues that matter most to them, 46% agree with that assessment.

Perry leads in Florida, Romney does better against Obama

The latest Quinnipiac poll out of Florida, taken prior to last night’s date and the first since Rick Perry entered the race, shows the Texas Governor with a slight lead over Mitt Romney.

Here’s how the field stacks up in Florida right now:

  • Rick Perry: 31%
  • Mitt Romney: 22%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 8%
  • Michele Bachmann: 7%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • WV/DK/NA: 14%

The poll also shows Barack Obama’s numbers falling off significantly, leaving Republicans with an opportunity to pick up a much needed state:

Obama’s approval rating in the state continues to slide, falling below 40 percent. Now, just 39 percent of all Florida voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 57 percent disapprove. In early August, Obama’s approval rating in the state stood at 44 percent.

A majority of voters now feel that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, his worst score on that measure. Only 41 percent of voters feel he does deserve to be re-elected, including just 39 percent of independents.

Even though he is leading among Republicans in Florida, Perry trails Obama in a potential head-to-head matchup in the state (as you can see below). That doesn’t help ease concerns that he is unelectable, even though Obama’s numbers are lagging so badly. Romney on the other hand has a 7 point lead over Obama.

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 44%
  • Perry: 42%
  • Other: 2%
  • WV/DK/NA: 12%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

Romney leads big in New Hampshire

Mitt Romney’s support in New Hampshire is still overwhelming, according to a new poll from Suffolk University. The numbers show Ron Paul coming in a very distant 2nd and Jon Huntsman, who hasn’t done well in many polls, not far behind.

  • Mitt Romney: 41%
  • Ron Paul: 14%
  • Jon Huntsman: 10%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Sarah Palin: 6%
  • Michele Bachmann: 5%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 1%
  • Herman Cain: 1%
  • Buddy Roemer: 1%
  • Undecided: 11%

Romney, Paul, and Huntsmann each picked up 6 points since the previous Suffolk poll out of New Hampshire in June. Bachmann has, unsurprisingly, lost support dropping from 11% to 5%.Perry’s lackluster performance isn’t odd since hasn’t focused much on New Hampshire, despite being hosting the first primary in the nation. He has instead spent much of his efforts in Iowa and South Carolina.

Suffolk notes that Romney’s support is solid:

In the event that their first choice dropped out of the Republican primary, those polled named Romney (21 percent) over Perry (20 percent) as their “second choice.” Paul received 9 percent as a second choice.

“Romney’s added strength in the second-choice question reduces the probability that any other candidate will be able to mobilize and capture all of the non-Romney voters as well as the undecided voters,” said Paleologos. “Romney is not only the overwhelming first choice, but he also has a competitive edge as a fallback option among voters who support other candidates.”

Romney catching up to Perry

The race for the Republican presidential nomination is beginning to get interesting as the gap in the polls between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney begins to close, according to the latest numbers from Gallup.

  • Rick Perry: 31%
  • Mitt Romney: 24%
  • Ron Paul: 13%
  • Michele Bachmann: 5%
  • Newt Gingrich: 5%
  • Herman Cain: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Other: 4%
  • No opinion: 10%

Perry did pick up two points from last the Gallup survey in the race. But Romney gained substantially, jumping from 17% to 24% in just a few weeks. While he’s still in third overall, Ron Paul is held steady. Michele Bachmann, continuing the trend irrelevance in the race, fell sharply from 10% in late August to 5%.

It’s bad news for Perry because he is beginning to fall back to earth. Moreover, Perry lost ground in a potential head-to-head matchup with President Barack Obama (he was tied last month) while Romney remained steady.

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 50%
  • Perry: 45%
  • Other: 3%
  • No opinion: 2%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

Rough road ahead for Obama in Virginia

It’s been a rough week for Barack Obama. His party lost a seat in an overwhelming Democratic district, his stimulus plan is facing an uncertain to “dead in the water” future, his poll numbers are down, the Solyandra loan and green jobs initiatives have been a flop and it looks like Virginia - a crucial state in next year’s election - may be slipping away.

Quinnipiac’s new poll out of the Commonweatlh of Virginia shows that 54% of voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance, up 6 points from June, and Rick Perry and Mitt Romney would be locked in a competitive race again him.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

  • Obama: 42%
  • Romney: 44%
  • Other: 2%
  • WV/DK/NA: 11%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 44%
  • Perry: 42%
  • Other: 2%
  • WV/DK/NA: 11%

Obama runs even with Perry among independents, a needed voting bloc for the GOP in 2012, at 40%. But Romney takes them against Obama, 44% to 35%.

It’s good news for Romney because, once again, he does better than Perry against Obama overall. However, Perry leads Romney among Virginia Republicans, 28% to 14%. Sarah Palin, who for some reason was included in the poll, comes in third with 10%. Ron Paul is fourth with 7%.

Perry’s lead holds steady, Bachmann drops to fifth

Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning firm, has new numbers in the race for the Republican nomination for president. As you may have guessed, Rick Perry still has a solid lead over Mitt Romney, but there is bad news for Michele Bachmann:

  • Rick Perry: 31%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Ron Paul: 11%
  • Newt Gingrich: 10%
  • Michele Bachmann: 9%
  • Herman Cain: 8%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other/Not sure: 8%

Perry and Romney are actually down by 2 points from the last Public Policy Polling survey in the race of announced candidates (ie. excluding Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan). Paul is up 5 points. Bachmann dropped by 7 points and has been surpassed by Gingrich, who may do a decent job in debate; but his share of the vote to his name recognition is small.

If other polls show a similar fall for Bachmann, she’s going to have a hard time justifying her campaign’s existence; not that this would discourage her from continuing along. However, this is more evidence that her thunder as been stolen as other, more electable candidates have entered the race.

Separately, Public Policy Polling notes that Perry is up big in the states of North Carolina and West Virginia, both of which will hold their primary on May 8th.

North Carolina

Majority of Americans skeptical of Obama’s latest stimulus proposal

It looks like Americans aren’t buying President Barack Obama’s latest stimulus gimmick — which includes more than $460 billion in tax hikes, according to a new poll from Bloomberg:

By a margin of 51 percent to 40 percent, Americans doubt the package of tax cuts and spending proposals intended to jumpstart job creation that Obama submitted to Congress this week will bring down the 9.1 percent jobless rate. That sentiment undermines one of the core arguments the president is making on the job act’s behalf in a nationwide campaign to build public support.

Compounding Obama’s challenge is that 56 percent of independents, whom the president won in 2008 and will need to win in 2012, are skeptical it will work.
[…]
In all of the categories gauging Obama’s performance on economic issues, the president’s disapproval rating among independents is above 50 percent.

That’s not the end of Obama’s troubles. The poll also shows that 62% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy. Only 33% of respondents approve (one has to wonder what world their living in). Overall, Obama’s job approval rating stands at 45%.

Since the bill has a lot of opposition already in Congress, many observers say that it serves only one real purpose; to have another fight between the White House and Republicans over the economy. That may very well be the case, but the numbers are already against Obama on this. Republicans really need only point to the failed 2009 stimulus bill as evidence that Obama is throwing a Hail Mary.

CNN Poll: Perry stays steady, holds 11 point lead over Romney

Just before last night’s debate in Tampa, Florida, CNN released the latest numbers in the race for the Republican nomination. It’s no surprise that Rick Perry is still the frontrunner, though he didn’t gain any ground from the previous CNN poll in August. Mitt Romney, however, picked up a few points:

  • Rick Perry: 32%
  • Mitt Romney: 21%
  • Ron Paul: 13%
  • Michele Bachmann: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 7%
  • Herman Cain: 6%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other: 2%
  • None/No opinion: 7%

Romney is up 3 points over last month. The numbers in August showing Ron Paul at 6% prove to be an anomly as he is at 13% in this poll and back in third; behind Perry and Romney. Cain also came up by 3 points over the previous poll. Bachmann fell off by 5 points from August, once again showing her decline.

CNN also measured Palin’s presence in the race. But honestly, until she gets in the race, who cares anymore? She’s a non-factor until then and I’m tired of talking about her.

The number that stood out the most, especially when he is being pounded by other candidates on Social Security, is that Rick Perry is considered to be the most electable in the field. When asked “[w]hich Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?” Perry nabs 42% of responses. Romney, who does the best against Obama in most polls, takes 26%.

Three new national polls in the race for the GOP nomination

As we head into tonight’s debate at the Reagan Library in California, the first since Rick Perry joined the field, we have three polls to go through since so much has come out in the last few days. This is probably too much for one post, but it’s probably best to lay it out all at once instead of three separate posts.

With this also, the only commentary I’ll offer is just to say that the race is now a two-man race between Perry and Romney. That’s not to say that other candidates aren’t deserving of attention or respect, especially since a couple of them will continue to help drive the narrative over the course of the primary. But the numbers don’t lie.

We’ll start with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which is good news for Perry and bad for Romney; who trials by 15 points:

  • Rick Perry: 38%
  • Mitt Romney: 23%
  • Ron Paul: 9%
  • Michele Bachmann: 8%
  • Newt Gingrich: 5%
  • Herman Cain: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • None/Not sure: 7%

And while President Barack Obama is taking heat for the economy, he still leads in pospective head-to-head matchups against both Romney and Rick Perry. Here are those numbers:

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

  • Obama: 47%
  • Perry: 42%
  • Neither/other: 4%
  • Unsure: 5%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

 
 


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