With less than a month to go until the Iowa caucus, a new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows him opening his lead on Mitt Romney and Ron Paul among likely caucus-goers:
Gingrich, according to the survey, has advantages that extend well beyond the horse race that put him in an enviable position in the final weeks before the state’s Jan. 3 caucuses, which serve as the formal start of the long nominating season. On electability, empathy and handling the economy, he does as well as or better than former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has long been described as the nominal front-runner for the nomination, or Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.).
With 33 percent support among likely caucus-goers in the new poll, Gingrich runs well ahead of his two main rivals, Romney and Paul, a libertarian whose passionate following and anti-government rhetoric have made him a durable force in the race. Both are at 18 percent.
But Iowa Republicans are far from decided. More than six in 10 potential caucus-goers say they could change their minds, and even among the likeliest attendees, fewer than half say they have definitely chosen a candidate.
Of the top three, Paul’s supporters are the most solid, followed by Gingrich’s and Romney’s.
Here are the full results of the poll:
Newt Gingrich has certainly had a good last several days. In addition to other polls showing him rising to the lead in the race for the GOP nomination, Rasmussen showed him with a 21 point lead over Mitt Romney. A third poll out of Florida showed Gingrich not only leading, but taking 50% of GOP voters.
But Gingrich’s rise is bringing a renewed interest in his past, not just his exploits as a lobbyist and consultant, but his failures as Speaker of the House, which has some of his former colleages still in the Congress are concerned that he may actually win the nomination:
Despite being in Washington for decades and leading the 1994 GOP revolution, Gingrich only has garnered six endorsements from Republican House members, and none in the Senate. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has sunk in the polls, has 13 (including from one senator) while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 46 (including from 8 senators).
Some of Gingrich’s former colleagues attribute the scarce endorsements to the former House Speaker’s leadership style.
Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who served in the House from 1995 through 2004, said that sentiment is true from a certain standpoint.
“Any time you throw a thousand ideas out there, you got a great likelihood that a great majority of them are not very good,” he said.
With the prospect of Herman Cain exiting the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, many analysts and pundits are weighing where his support would go. You’d have to assume that Mitt Romney probably wants Cain to say in due to the dynamics of the race. At least one poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, indicates that Newt Gingrich would be the beneficiary of Cain’s exit:
Gingrich has a much better favorability rating with Cain supporters than does Mitt Romney. Seventy-three percent of Cain supporters view Gingrich favorably, while only 33 percent have a favorable view of Romney.
Gingrich is also the consensus second choice among Cain voters, with 37 percent saying Gingrich would be their back-up to Cain, compared to 14 percent for Michele Bachmann, 13 percent for Romney, and 12 percent for Rick Perry.
While it may be counterintuitive on the surface, Grace Wyler believes both Romney and Gingrich need Cain to stay in the race:
ObamaCare is again shaping up to be a contentious issue for the White House and congressional Democrats. The most recent Gallup poll on the question showed that a plurality of Americans want Congress to take action to dismantle President Barack Obama’s biggest legislative accomplishment. Other polls have found that even Democrats are souring on the law.
So it no suprise that a new poll from Quinnipiac, shows that the public wants the Supreme Court, which will take up the law next year, to strike down ObamaCare:
A new poll shows that most voters want the Supreme Court to overturn President Obama’s health care law, with opposition and support falling largely along party lines.
Overall, voters oppose the law by 48%-40%, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. Democrats support the Obama health care effort by 70%-19%, while Republicans oppose it by 86%-8%.
The Quinnipiac survey found independent voters opposed to the law by 45%-38%.
Though they have the House, Republicans don’t have the numbers in the Senate; not to mention majorities large enough to override a veto. The future of the law, and what limitations the Constitution places on Congress, rests in the hands of the United States Supreme Court in what will be the most decision in our lifetimes.
While many in the media have taken used to the failure of the Supercommittee to come up with some sort of an agreement as an opportunity to criticize Republicans, a recent Gallup poll shows that Americans blame both parties for the impasse:
The hang up was over taxes, even though Republicans offered some $400 billion in new revenues through closing loopholes — a move that will be seen as a betrayal of the base, and understandably so. Democrats, however, balked at this and wanted more in terms of tax hikes. With the likelihood of another recesssion, raising taxes is just a bad idea. What Congress should be doing is cutting spending.
And while you point to the automatic cuts that come with the failure of the Supercommittee, Jacob Sullum explains that these are not cuts to real spending, rather cuts in future increases in spending:
As was noted in yesterday’s GOP Presidential Power Rankings, Newt Gingrich is coming on strong as he appears to be latest anti-Romney emerge from the pack. The latest numbers in the race from Gallup only serve to emphasize that point.
Here is how the field looks right now:
- Newt Gingrich: 22%
- Mitt Romney: 21%
- Herman Cain: 16%
- Ron Paul: 9%
- Rick Perry: 8%
- Michele Bachmann: 4%
- Jon Huntsman: 1%
- Rick Santorum: 1%
- Other: 1%
- None/No opinion: 18%
As you can see in the chart Gallup provided in their report of the poll numbers, this has been anything but a normal primary as the GOP electorate — though primarily tea party influenced and more conservative voters — moved back and forth between whatever Flavor of the Month has been put before them.
Unlikely Bachmann and Perry, Cain isn’t dropping off very far; despite the recently surfaced allegations of sexual harrassment. Most Republican voters aren’t bothered by those stories. They should, however, be very concerned at how his campaign has handled them and the frequent gaffes and lack of knowledge on policy issues that would come before him in the White House.
Another reason Cain has managed to hang on is due to some distrust of Gingrich among conservatives and tea partyers, which is understandable.
With ObamaCare headed to the Supreme Court and Democrats supporting repeal of damaging tax and regulatory provisions in the law, Americans continue to sour on President Barack Obama’s key legislative accomplishment; according to a new survey from Gallup:
Given a choice, 47% of Americans favor repealing the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, while 42% want it kept in place. Views on this issue are highly partisan, with Republicans strongly in favor of repeal and the large majority of Democrats wanting the law kept in place.
The Supreme Court announced on Monday that it would review the healthcare law’s constitutionality, a case that is likely to be heard in March, with a ruling issued by next summer. Thus, the law’s ultimate fate may now be in the court’s hands, rather than in Congress’, although it will continue to be a dominant issue in the 2012 presidential campaign. Republicans and conservatives have continued to level criticism against the law since it was passed in March 2010, while President Obama has been just as vigorous in defending its objectives and future benefits.
Here’s something that I haven’t seen get more airtime: Ron Paul moves into top-tier in Iowa Caucuses, Now a 4-way Dead Heat:
The Iowa caucuses are just seven weeks away, but Republican voters in the nation’s first presidential nominating state seem as torn as ever over the GOP field.
A new Bloomberg poll of likely caucus participants shows a four-way tie in Iowa, with Rep. Ron Paul joining Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain in the top tier of candidates. Underscoring the uncertainty in the race, 60 percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to back someone other than their first choice for the nomination.
The poll, conducted November 10 - 12 by the West Des Moines-based firm Selzer & Co, shows Cain in the lead with 20 percent, while Paul comes in at 19 percent. Romney wins 18 percent support, and Gingrich earns 17 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.
While Christian conservatives have more influence in Iowa than they do in the rest of the nation, only a quarter of likely caucus-goers say social issues are more important this year than economic issues. As many as 71 percent say they’re voting on issues like jobs and taxes.
It’s the economy, stupid, Ron Paul edition.
We’ve noted here over the last few weeks that the Occupy Wall Street movement and its ancillary groups in other major cities had been quickly waning in popularity. The latest survey from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, only drives home that point:
The Occupy Wall Street movement is not wearing well with voters across the country. Only 33% now say that they are supportive of its goals, compared to 45% who say they oppose them. That represents an 11 point shift in the wrong direction for the movement’s support compared to a month ago when 35% of voters said they supported it and 36% were opposed. Most notably independents have gone from supporting Occupy Wall Street’s goals 39/34, to opposing them 34/42.
Voters don’t care for the Tea Party either, with 42% saying they support its goals to 45% opposed. But asked whether they have a higher opinion of the Tea Party or Occupy Wall Street movement the Tea Party wins out 43-37, representing a flip from last month when Occupy Wall Street won out 40-37 on that question. Again the movement with independents is notable- from preferring Occupy Wall Street 43-34, to siding with the Tea Party 44-40.
Last weekend in Denver, I watched as protesters blocked off a street, claiming ownership of it and refusing to let traffic pass — that is before police pushed them back. Acts of civil disobedience or even violence may seem like justifiable means to these so-called “Occupiers,” but Americans don’t smile on that.
The race for the Republican nomination for president continues to get even crazier as polls indicate that the surfacing of past accusations of sexual harassment and lack of knowledge on basic policy issues have hurt Herman Cain’s candidacy and subsequently aided Newt Gingrich in rising to contender status.
The latest poll in the race from CNN shows Gingrich within the margin of error to Mitt Romney and Cain falling back to a distant third with Rick Perry right behind him.
- Mitt Romney: 24% (-2)
- Newt Gingrich: 22% (+14)
- Herman Cain: 14% (-11)
- Rick Perry: 12% (-1)
- Ron Paul: 8% (-1)
- Michele Bachmann: 6% (even)
- Jon Huntsman: 3% (+2)
- Rich Santorum: 3% (+1)
- Other: 1%
- None/No opinion: 8%
Even better news for Gingrich is the latest survey from Public Policy Polling showing Gingrich with the lead, though he is within the margin of error. Romney comes in third and Perry begins the lower tier of candidates in fourth.
- Newt Gingrich: 28% (+13)
- Herman Cain: 25% (-5)
- Mitt Romney: 18% (-4)
- Rick Perry: 6% (-8)
- Ron Paul: 5% (even)
- Rick Santorum: 5% (+4)
- Michele Bachmann: 5% (even)
- Jon Huntsman: 3% (+1)
- Gary Johnson: 1% (+1)
- Other/Not sure: 9%
Gingrich’s rise is as odd as what we saw with Cain. Cain is inexperienced and obviously in over his head. For all the criticisms of Barack Obama not being ready for the presidency, Cain would be equally unprepared.