Pennsylvania Senate Election 2010
Here is Pat Toomey’s victory speech from Tuesday evening:
While the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is going down to the wire. According to Real Clear Politics, Toomey has led in each of the last six polls in the race, though some are in the margin of error. The latest poll from Rasmussen is right in the middle of the surveys, showing Toomey with a four point lead.
- Toomey: 50%
- Sestak: 46%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 3%
According to the survey, 81% are certain of their vote. Both candidates have favorables above water, Toomey is at 55/40, with Sestak at 51/46. Toomey leads among independents, 50% to 37%.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance. Voters also aren’t high on ObamaCare as 54% favor repeal.
Sestak has been campaigning hard in Philadelphia, which is viewed as a key to victory for him. If he can turnout the suburbs, he has a real shot at winning. A report last week The Hill indicated that the counties to watch are Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery, where independents are going to make the difference. However, it was also noted by a pollster in the article that there hasn’t been much to indicate that Sestak will win.
The two most recent polls out of Pennsylvania show Pat Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for United States Senate, which had been showing signs over the last week or so. However, in the last few days Toomey has been increasing his lead.
A CNN/Time survey shows Toomey up by four points:
- Toomey: 49%
- Sestak: 45%
- Other: 3%
- Undecided: 3%
Toomey has a 13 point lead among independents. The poll also shows that 52% of voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.
The daily tracking poll from Muhlenburg/Morning Call has showed Toomey hovering between 46% to 48% the last few days, but here are the results from yesterday (new results will be released today):
- Toomey: 46%
- Sestak: 41%
- Undecided: 12%
Toomey also dropped his closing ad, which briefly discusses the birth of his new child and worries about jobs and the national debt:
The most recent survey out of Pennsylvania by Rasmussen confirms that Pat Toomey’s lead over Rep. Joe Sestak has shrunk, by he still leads by four points heading into the home stretch. Toomey blames the shrinking of his lead on the DSCC.
- Toomey: 48%
- Sestak: 44%
- Other: 1%
- Not sure: 7%
Toomey holds a 50% to 29% lead among independents over Sestak. Toomey also leads among the three issues (the economy, health care and spending) voters were asked about.
Neither candidate has been successful in labeling the other as an extremist as their numbers on this question are almost indentical. Toomey is viewed more favorably by voters (55%) that Sestak (48%).
The two candidates faced off in a debate on Friday evening in Pittsburgh, you can watch it in full below:
With the tightening in the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), the Club for Growth has made a $1 million ad buy in Philadelphia-area, hitting Sestak hard for supporting the stimulus and other leftist policies:
“Congressman Joe Sestak’s agenda of more taxes, more spending, and more debt are the problem in Washington, not the solution,” said Club President Chris Chocola. “Pat Toomey is committed to real change in Washington. Sestak had his chance to change Washington, but he chose instead to throw our economy into debt and decline. Pat Toomey knows that if we want more jobs, we need less government.”
Here is the ad:
A day after Public Policy Polling put out a questionable survey in Pennsylvania, Morning Call released numbers from tracking they are doing in the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak.
- Sestak: 44%
- Toomey: 41%
- Not sure: 15%
Here is a look at the D/R/I breakdowns from recent polling compared to exit polling from 2006 and 2008, which were strongly Democratic years, and 2004, which saw a Republican Arlen Specter win re-election.
- Morning Call: 46/46/8
- Public Policy Polling: 48/41/11
- Rasmussen: 45/37/17
- 2008 Exit Polling: 44/38/18
- 2006 Exit Polling: 43/38/19
- 2004 Exit Polling: 41/39/20
You can see that both Morning Call and Public Policy Polling are both underweighting independents, though the former is more noticable. This is the reason I’ve been so skeptical about polling. Adding to my argument is nearly every poll since June has showed Toomey’s support at 45% or higher. Like I said yesterday, the race is likely tightening, but there needs to be a measure of skepticism here considering that nearly every recent poll has Toomey with a decent lead.
Another point to take into account is that absentee voting in Pennsylvania has an advantage for Toomey:
- Sestak: 46%
- Toomey: 45%
- Undecided: 9%
So, it Pennsylvania now a “toss-up,” as the folks at Public Policy Polling say, or this another poll similar to what they put out from West Virginia last week, where they party samples overweighted Democrats and underweighted independents? The race may be closer, but a toss-up? I’m skeptical.
Public Policy Polling used this party ID breakdown:
- Democrats: 48%
- Republicans: 41%
- Independents: 11%
As I noted in the poll last poll from Rasmussen in this race, 2008 exit polls from Pennsylvania show a party ID breakdown of:
- Democrats: 44%
- Republicans: 38%
- Independents: 18%
Rasmussen nearly nailed this in their last poll out of Pennsylvania with a breakdown of 45/37/17 (D/R/I). That poll showed Toomey with a 10 point lead. If fact, all the recent polling out of the Keystone State shows Toomey with anywhere from a 3 to 10 point lead and the Real Clear Politics average shows a 6.3 point advantage for the Republican nominee.
Are the Reagan Democrats back? That’s the topic of discussion in this video from the Wall Street Journal as James Freeman and Matt Kaminski discuss the race for United States Senate and Governor in Pennsylvania where Republicans are reversing the trend toward Democrats that had been seen in the last two cycles.
H/T: Club for Growth
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is getting desperate. He is currently trailing Pat Toomey in the race for United States Senate in Pennsylvania by an average of almost 8 points and his chances of a comeback are unlikely. So what does he do? He tries to tie Toomey to George W. Bush.
While the ad is cute, it is also misleading. Voters from Pennsylvania may remember that in 2004, George W. Bush campaigned for Sen. Arlen Specter, before his party switch, over Toomey in the Republican primary. Toomey, a past president of the Club for Growth, was fiercely critical of runaway spending by Republicans, including Bush.
Sestak is done. He knows it.
- Toomey: 49%
- Sestak: 39%
- Other: 2%
- Not sure: 10%
Sestak has allowed himself to be defined as a liberal and someone who is in lock-step with President Barack Obama by Toomey, the NRSC and outside groups like the Club for Growth. According to Rasmussen, 48% of voters view him unfavorably, though 43% view him favorably.
Toomey is view favorably by 54% of voters, while 36% view him unfavorably. He is also running away with independents, 62% to 15%, over Sestak.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) rate the economy as “poor” and 53% believe it is getting worse. Another 55% support repeal of ObamaCare.
Since I’ve noted this in a few polls lately, the party ID breakdown (D/R/I) in this poll is 45/37/17. The exit polls from Pennsylvania in 2008 show a 44/37/18 breakdown.