Despite a looming bid by former Gov. Gary Johnson (R-NM), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) further advanced speculation that he is considering another bid for president by accepting an invitation to speak to a prominent activist in Iowa:
Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning Republican from Texas, will speak in Iowa next month at a presidential lecture series for the Family Leader, a social conservative activist group. It’s another signal Mr. Paul is pondering his third run at the White House.
The outspoken lawmaker, who has said he wants to dismantle the Federal Reserve, ran as a Libertarian in 1988 and as a Republican in 2008.
Other likely GOP candidates, including Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, will be speaking at the lecture series throughout the month.
Despite some strong signs of support in New Hampshire and holding a slight lead among Republicans nationally, Mitt Romney is trailing Tax Hike Mike Huckabee in an early poll of likely participants in the Iowa caucuses, according to a survey released yesterday by Strategic National.
Here are the results:
- Mike Huckabee: 27.56%
- Mitt Romney: 18.54%
- Sarah Palin: 12.44%
- Newt Gingrich: 12.20%
- Tim Pawlenty: 4.39%
- Michele Bachmann: 3.66%
- John Thune: 1.95%
- Rick Santorum: 0.98%
- Haley Barbour: 0.24%
- Other/Undecided: 18.05%
It looks like Rep. Michele Bachmann’s visit to Iowa has gotten her some attention, but it’s unlikely to get any real traction for a serious presidential bid. And though he did poorly in this poll, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is making plans to visit South Carolina Republicans to discuss a presidential bid.
On the heels of the first straw poll for 2012, Rasmussen is out with new polling in the 2012 Republican primary for president that shows Mitt Romney will a small lead over Sarah Palin and Tax Hike Mike Huckabee in a limited field of seven possible candidates.
- Mitt Romney: 24%
- Sarah Palin: 19%
- Mike Huckabee: 17%
- Newt Gingrich: 11%
- Tim Pawlenty: 6%
- Ron Paul: 4%
- Mitch Daniels: 3%
- Other: 6%
- Not sure: 10%
None of this means anything right now. We’re going to spend the next several months going over the faults of each candidates, why they can win or why they can’t. But Rasmussen, with it’s Republican-leaning bent, gives us a good idea of what GOP voters are thinking right now.
Over the weekend in New Hampshire, the state’s Republican Party along with WMUR and ABC News conducted a presidential straw poll a year in advance of the primary; with Mitt Romney winning big:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the first presidential straw poll of the 2012 cycle, kicking off New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary election race.
Romney won with 35 percent, beating second-place finisher Ron Paul by 24 points in the WMUR-ABC News straw poll of members of the state Republican Party. In third place was former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who won 8 percent—just one point ahead of Sarah Palin, who drew 7 percent.
Because Romney has such high name recognition here and has a home in Wolfeboro, N.H., he was widely expected to win—and observers here were far more interested in who would come in second and third.
Only three candidates—Romney, Pawlenty and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum—have spent significant amounts of time on the ground in the state over the past few months. At today’s convention, Pawlenty staffed a table to promote his new book while Santorum consultant and longtime New Hampshire operative Mike Biundo had a table and worked the crowd.
Romney, who is adding staff in preparation for his bid, has the money to build an influential campaign in the state. He is also focusing more on economic issues, which is a smart move in New Hampshire. For a social conservative like Santorum, who has spent a lot of time in the state, or Huckabee, New Hampshire represents a significant challenge; where as Iowa may be more welcoming.
Here are the full results of the straw poll:
Below is a collection of several links that we didn’t get around to writing about, but still wanted to post for readers to examine. The stories typically range from news about prominent figures in the liberty movement, national politics, the nanny state, foreign policy and free markets.
Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party are planning a debate in Greenville on May 5, 2011 (and another in 2012):
FOX News and the South Carolina Republican Party have jointly announced that they will present two presidential debates, which are expected to attract the top 2012 Republican contenders for President of the United States. The debates are currently scheduled to be presented live and exclusively on FOX News Channel (FNC), FOX News Radio, FOX News Mobile and FOXNews.com.
The initial debate will take place on May 5, 2011 at the Peace Center in Greenville, South Carolina. The second debate will be held in 2012 prior to the South Carolina primary at a location to be determined.
CNN is planning a debate for June 7, 2011 in Manchester, New Hampshire:
The New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV, and CNN are once again teaming up to present a Republican Presidential primary debate in America’s first primary state. The debate is scheduled for Tuesday, June 7, 2011 in Manchester, which will make it the first debate in the “First in the Nation” primary state of New Hampshire.
Information on the location and exact time of the New Hampshire debate will be forthcoming. The three news organizations have a long history of working together to host presidential debates in the state, most recently in 2007.
While some potentially vulnerable Democrats are backing the deal the deal President Barack Obama has made with Republicans to extend all of the soon-to-expire tax cuts, the rage on the Left against the proposal hasn’t let up. And the criticism doesn’t end there. Yesterday, I noted that Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) had expressed his opposition. In the last day or so there have been more voices coming to his aid.
“This is bad policy, bad politics, and a bad deal for the American people,” said Club President Chris Chocola. “The plan would resurrect the Death Tax, grow government, blow a hole in the deficit with unpaid-for spending, and do so without providing the permanent relief and security our economy needs to finally start hiring and growing again.”
“Instead, Congress should pass a permanent extension of current rates, including a permanent repeal of the death tax, and drop all new spending,” Chocola said. “A month ago, the American people repudiated Washington big government. It’s time for both parties to finally hear that message and act on it.”
According to a Gallup survey, the Republican nomination for president in 2012 is basically open, with four potential candidates (Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tax Hike Mike and Newt Gingrich) essentially tied for the lead.
Out of the “second-tier” names below, Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour have a good shot at making a run at the nomination.
Personally, I’m going with Gary Johnson for now.
Even though we just wrapped up the mid-term election (though a handful of races are yet to be decided), the presidential election is just around the corner. This was something I noted last week on my personal blog. In case you don’t remember, the first debate for the Republican nomination for president for the 2008 cycle took place on May 3, 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Semi Valley, California.
Yesterday, Politico and NBC announced the first debate for the 2012 cycle will take place “during the spring of 2011” at the same location, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. You can read the press release below.
We’ve compiled a list of potential candidates. We expect more names to be floated out there over the next several months, so we’ll be adding to it. But the obvious names are that you’re going to here are Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.
In 1998 mid-term election, Republicans lost five seats in the House of Representatives. The end result of this was Newt Gingrich, who was facing a revolt inside his caucus that would have likely resulted in him being replaced as Speaker, decided not to be sat with the Congress.
Some House Democrats are beginning to find themselves in a tough situation. Even if they don’t lose control of the House, though nearly every analyst is predicting that they will, the losses they face in November will be substantial. If you’re a Democrat, what do you do, force out Speaker Nancy Pelosi or do the same thing over again, expecting a different result? Not suprisingly, Some Democrats up for re-election are already making their thoughts on the subject known.
Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), who has been tied to Pelosi by his Republican opponent, Art Robinson, says she has to go:
Robinson criticizes DeFazio for going along too much with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He said DeFazio votes with Pelosi 86 percent of the time.
DeFazio, who says he favors replacing Pelosi as speaker if Democrats retain their majority, finds that laughable. DeFazio said he has voted with Pelosi on labor and social issues, as well as National Grandmother’s Day. But he doesn’t follow her lead just because they’re both Democrats.
Others are also on record, such as Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), who is running this ad in his district as he fights off a tough challenge from Martha Roby: