Mitt Romney

Another poll in Iowa shows Bachmann leading, national viability remains a big question

While I’m not convinced Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s biggest threat to the Republican nomination, she continues to show that she may steal the show in Iowa. According to yet another poll out of the Hawkeye State - this one conducted by American Research Group, Bachmann leads Romney by a small margin among likely caucus-goers.

  • Michele Bachmann: 21%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Ron Paul: 14%
  • Sarah Palin: 11%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Rick Santorum: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty:
  • Other: 2:
  • Undecided: 10%

The poll also notes:

Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among registered Republicans. Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among those saying they will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican caucus. And Bachmann leads Romney 30% to 7% among those saying they are supporters of the Tea Party.

Ron Paul leads Romney 24% to 23% among no party (independent) voters, with Sarah Palin at 15% and Bachmann at 2%. Paul leads Romney 22% to 20% among probable caucus goers, with Bachmann at 14% and Palin at 12%.

Romney leads Bachmann 31% to 11% among likely caucus goers saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows Bachmann picking up steam as well, though that doesn’t come a surprise. We haven’t paid much attention to national polls lately, but given how the field is shaping up, here is a look at how Republican voters are going.

Bachmann pulls ahead in Iowa

At the end of last month, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Iowa. But a new poll from the Des Moines Register shows Bachmann with a slight lead - though still within the margin of error, a month ahead of the Ames Straw Poll.

  • Michele Bachmann: 25%
  • Mitt Romney: 21%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 9%
  • Herman Cain: 9%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%

The poll shows that 76% of Republicans in Iowa have a favorable view of Bachmann, 66% are favorable of Romney. Gingrich, however, doesn’t fare so well as 52% have an unfavorable view of him; by far the worst in the poll.

Pawlenty, who is viewed favorably by 60% of Iowa Republicans, saw a bump from the last poll. This state is where many observers feel he has to make a stand in order to even stay in the race. That’s likely why he lobbed a shots against Bachmann over the weekend, noting that she has no real record of accomplishment.

This isn’t important just because Pawlenty is knocking a rival, but also because if Bachmann can’t pull ahead of Romney, she may decide to run for re-election in what has been a fairly competitive district. Those comments could become fodder by a Democratic opponent.

Romney still on top in New Hampshire, Bachmann gaining

Two new polls out of New Hampshire show a tightening race between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who is now being seen as the anti-Romney in the race for the GOP nomination.

The tightening that I referenced isn’t seen on the surface in the poll from the University of New Hampshire; however, Bachmann polled at 4% in the Granite State last month, so she is up 8 points. Romney fell off 6 points, from 41% since last month.

  • Mitt Romney: 35%
  • Michele Bachmann: 12%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Sarah Palin: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Newt Gingrich: 1%
  • Gary Johnson: 1%
  • Other: 2%
  • Undecided: 19%

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based Democratic polling firm, shows the gap between Romney and Bachmann now down to a single-digits; the closest any GOP competitor has been in the state.

Romney: Decisiveness in action

Mitt Romney is decisive.  Sort of.  You see, he didn’t say that President Obama made the recession worse….but now he’s saying that President Obama made the recession worse.  I swear, this sounds like I’m talking about John Kerry with his “I voted for it before I voted against it” quip.  However, Romney is now apparently full on after President Obama….this week:

Speaking at the annual July Fourth parade here on Monday, Mr. Romney told a crowd of supporters and passersby,“the recession is deeper because of our president,” adding, “it’s seen an anemic recovery because of our president.”

Mr. Romney made a similar assertion earlier when reporters had pressed him on the point near the parade staging grounds, after initially seeming to limit his commentary to the president’s handling of the recovery, which he said, “has been slower and more painful,’’ But then he went ahead and said it, that the president “made the recession worse.”

The problem for Romney is that the experts say the recession ended in 2009 which most are taking to mean that it wasn’t so bad.  He’s done a rather poor job of articulating what he means, unless he’s arguing that it ain’t over yet.  He also said the recovery sucks because of Obama.  On that note, he’s closer to right than the press wants to admit.  I seriously doubt we’re going to see a good, solid recovery with what’s been done so far.

The problem here isn’t Romney saying Obama made the recession worse.  In truth, he’s campaigning in a GOP primary where most of the voters already think that.  The problem is here is a man who’s running for president who can’t seem to decide from one day to the next if Obama is to blame for the severity of the economic troubles in this country.

Bachmann leads in New Mexico, Johnson third overall in home state

Public Policy Polling released a survey out of New Mexico yesterday showing Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann leading the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls, although Romney isn’t far behind. Gary Johnson, who served as Governor of the state from 1995 to 2003, comes in just behind them.

  • Michele Bachmann: 21%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Gary Johnson: 13%
  • Sarah Palin: 11%
  • Herman Cain: 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 6%
  • Ron Paul: 5%
  • Other: 9%

They polled a few different scenarios in the race, including leaving out Palin and Johnson but adding Jon Huntsman into the mix. You can see those here. While Public Policy Polling was at it, they polled the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and found Rep. Heather Wilson significantly ahead of the other likely candidates with 52% of Republican voters backing her.

Thad McCotter to join a crowded Republican field

There had been speculation on this for several weeks, but honestly, no one really seemed to take it seriously. But it appears that Rep. Thad McCotter (R-MI) will announce his presidential bid over the July 4th weekend:

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich. will launch his presidential campaign on July 2, making him the third sitting member of the House to run for the White House in 2012.

McCotter will make his bid official in his home state of Michigan, according to a knowledgable source in the campaign who declined to be identified.

The five-term congressman has made stops in several of the early primary states and participated in the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans earlier this month. He joined the Iowa Tea Party bus tour this week during a stop in Ottumwa, Iowa.

When I posted Ron Paul’s campaign update a few days ago, I mentioned that he had secured the best booth at the Ames Straw Poll and in the post I linked back to Politco, they noted that McCotter also bought a booth through a lobbyist that refused to indentify what campaign she was working for.

By McCain’s definition, Reagan was an isolationist

In his latest video, Jack Hunter wades into the debate taking place inside the Republican Party over foreign policy. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Gov. Tim Pawlenty and other neoconservatives would have us believe that those criticizing President Barack Obama’s illegal war in Libya are “isolationists” and that Ronald Reagan would be appalled by some of the candidates running for the GOP presidential nomination that are expressing these views.

Of course, those expressing restraint in foreign policy are non-interventionists, not isolationists; they don’t not believe in cutting the United States off from the world. Also, Reagan wasn’t as hawkish as neoconservatives would have us believe.

Is Mitt Romney trying to appeal to Trump backers on trade?

It looks like Mitt Romney is trying to appeal to the populist know-nothings that Donald Trump and Tax Hike Mike Huckabee were able to attract by suggesting that the United States should cut off trade with China:

On Tuesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appeared to ratchet up the rhetoric beyond even that one-liner, suggesting that there was a basis for ending U.S. trade relations with China altogether.

“I’m not sure, whether the intellectual property you have is regularly being stolen by competition around the world, but in the case of China, for instance, we’ve sat idly by as they have stolen — year after year — intellectual property: Designs, patents and so forth,” Romney told a crowd member at a Mosiac Technology Business Roundtable in Salem, N.H. “And I don’t see how you can have a trade relationship, on an open basis, with another nation if they’re stealing a large part of what it is you sell.”

Romney still leads in New Hampshire, Bachmann makes gains

A new poll out of New Hampshire from Suffolk University shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holding steady, though Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has made gains in the Granite State. Texas Rep. Ron Paul finishes in the top three.

  • Mitt Romney: 36%
  • Michele Bachmann: 11%
  • Ron Paul: 8%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 5%
  • Sarah Palin: 4%
  • Jon Huntsman: 4%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Newt Gingrich: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%
  • Rick Perry: 2%
  • George Pataki: 1%
  • Rick Santorum: 1%

The poll notes:

Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.

New Hampshire Republicans are unconcerned with Romney’s tendency to change positions on issues important to party’s base as 69% say that doesn’t disqualify him from getting their vote.

As the last few polls have shown, New Hampshire is Romney’s to lose.

Ron Paul gives a campaign update

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) sent out an e-mail yesterday asking for donations, offering an update on his campaign, and taking some shots at Mitt Romney - who he says laid down the foundation for ObamaCare - and the Republican establishment:

Paul was hoping for $3 million, but he is well over that mark at this point. The campaign is now hoping to raise $5 million in the next few days. His campaign also recently won the auction for the best booth at August’s Ames Straw Poll, an important day for GOP hopefuls in Iowa. The same booth was used by the last two winners of the straw poll, George W. Bush in 1999 and Mitt Romney in 2007.


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