United Liberty

The Hill is out with their latest round of polling in 12 competitive House districts (they’re polling 48 in total over the course of four weeks) and it shows good news for Republicans:

This week, our pollster, Penn Schoen Berland, switched the focus from Democratic freshmen to 10 seats of which nine are open because incumbents are retiring or seeking higher office, and one was filled by a special election just this May. Of the open seats, eight are currently Democratic and one is Republican, but GOP candidates have the lead in eight, and only one looks like it will be won by a Democrat. Notably, that one seat, Ill.-10, is held by a Republican. So if all this week’s results hold true, nine open seats polled will flip, with eight going to the Republican and one to the Democrat.

The 10th Week 2 district, Hawaii-1, shows Rep. Charles Djou (R), who came to Capitol Hill in May, holding a four-point lead in his first general-election campaign.

Another striking finding is that a majority (54 percent) of the 4,000 likely voters in the Week 2 poll are disaffected with the two-party system and would like to see a viable third party established. This was particularly true among independents, of whom two out of every three (67 percent) wanted a viable third party. Even among those voters who identify with one of the two existing parties, a plurality favor a third party — Democrats by 49 points to 40, and Republicans by 46 points to 44.

The latest poll from Rasmussen out of Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson continuing to lead Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), though the race has tightened slighty from the last poll.

• Johnson: 52%
• Feingold: 45%
• Other: 0%
• Not sure: 2%

Just as a note since I touched on questionable polling in West Virginia, the party breakdown in this survey is 40/34/26 (D/R/I), compared to 39/33/29 in 2008 exit polling.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters are certain of their vote, up from 79% in the last poll. Feingold is viewed favorably by 49% of voters and 48% view him unfavorably. Johnson fairs better, being viewed favorably by 60%, with 34% viewing him unfavorably.

Voters have an overall favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, but a plurality believe the economy is getting worse and believe it is performing poorly.

Barring a major slip up by Johnson or the NRSC in the next three weeks, this seat is going Republican.

As if the mid-term elections weren’t evidence enough that Barack Obama has problems on his hands, here some piling on that point:

Nearly half the people who once considered themselves supporters of President Barack Obama don’t anymore.

Other than that, his virtually nonstop cross-country campaigning for embattled Democrats in the Nov. 2 election is working perfectly. Monday night, he spoke to two party fundraisers of ordinary American millionaires in Miami, as The Ticket reported here.

A new poll released today by Bloomberg News finds all that hopey-changey stuff is rapidly turning to disappointment and disenchantment. While 47% of all voters approve of Obama’s job now, ominously for 2012 only 36% of onetime Obama supporters now approve. Feeling jilted?
[…]
Of course, Obama is on no ballot three weeks from today. But Republicans appear to be succeeding in making the Democrat’s first midterm election — a time of traditional defeat anyway for the party of the White House occupant — into a referendum on the Illinois guy.

Something about a stubborn national unemployment rate of 9.6% despite $700+ billion in non-stimulating stimulus spending and promises to keep the jobless rate below 8%.

Sharron Angle pulled off an impressive fundraising haul in the third quarter, bringing in $14 million as she continues her quest to unseat Sen. Harry Reid:

Nevada Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle raised $14 million between July 1 and Sept. 30 in her tea-party-fueled campaign to defeat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, according to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

That figure, set to be reported to the Federal Election Commission this week, easily tops some other candidates in hard-fought races. Last week, Florida’s GOP Senate nominee, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, said he raised $5 million during the third quarter. In Washington state, Republican Dino Rossi, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, touted his $4.5 million haul.

The Reid campaign hasn’t yet released its third-quarter fund-raising total. A spokesman for the Senate’s top Democrat did not immediately return a request for comment. Reid raised $2.4 million in the previous three-month fund-raising period, between April 1 and June 30.

Polls show Angle and Reid in a virtual tie as they head into the final three weeks of the campaign. Republicans see an opportunity to knock off Reid, the Majority Leader in the Senate, much like they took down Tom Daschle in 2004 and possibly take control of that chamber.

Turn out is key and Democrats are having problems with their base and Reid isn’t the most exciting candidate out their. This race shouldn’t be this close or this costly. Angle has to establish herself with independents in these last few days.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning polling firm, put out some new numbers yesterday out of West Virginia in the Senate race between Gov. Joe Manchin and John Raese. According to the poll, Manchin has regained the lead.

• Manchin: 48%
• Raese: 45%
• Undecided: 7%

Here is the party breakdown of the poll:

• Democrats: 55%
• Republicans: 33%
• Independents: 12%

That’s questionable, to say the least, especially when you consider that Democrats make-up a little over 54% of registered voters (the poll claims to be among likely voters) in the state that has gone Republican in each of the last three presidential elections.

Compare this to the party breakdown of the last poll, which show Raese in the lead, though by the same three point margin.

• Democrats: 51%
• Republicans: 37%
• Independents: 12%

Public Policy Polling explains the difference:

In the commotion over the Pledge to America, a weak, politically safe platform presented by House Republicans, I overlooked this post from Erick Erickson over at RedState where he offers a pledge I can get behind:

We, the House Republicans, pledge to do only these things and limit ourselves to doing them in such a way that if normal, non-lawyer Americans cannot comprehend our actions as deriving from one of these then we shall deem the action beyond the scope of our powers and not do it. The things we shall do and only do are as follows:

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

To establish Post Offices and Post Roads;

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

With the primaries in 2010 over and the general election just three weeks away, tea partyers are already putting Republican Senators in their crosshairs for primary challenges in 2012:

Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, already has a conservative GOP primary opponent. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah), Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) and Sen. Richard Lugar (R., Indiana) have all drawn fire from the right wing of their party.

Tea-party activists have put these and other incumbents on notice that the anti-establishment sentiment defining this year’s politics will not end on Election Day 2010.

It is too early to say if these incumbents will face serious peril when they are up for re-election in 2012, but they are already taking steps to burnish their conservative credentials.

“The tea party is right,” said Ms. Snowe, who is campaigning for a tea-party-backed gubernatorial candidate in Maine this fall. “We’ve lost our way on fiscal issues.”
[…]
Tea-party challenges to GOP establishment candidates in this year’s primaries showed how committed conservative activists are to changing the party from within. Although activists now are turning their attention to defeating Democrats in November, 2012 is already looming.

“Right now, we’re in the research mode, but Nov. 3 we are going to start our search” for an opponent for Mr. Lugar, said Monica Boyer, president of Silent No More, a group she said sympathizes with the tea party.

Mr. Lugar last won re-election by a landslide. But the 2010 primaries sent a strong message: No one is safe if the tea party could defeat Republicans such as Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah, Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

With about three weeks before the mid-term elections, Republicans look poised to make significant gains in both the U.S. House and Senate. Most of the major polls are now projecting that the House will return to Republican control; the only question being, by what margin? There is even the remote possibility that Republicans can retake control of the Senate, a scenario that seemed laughable only three months ago. Governors’ races across the country are looking very favorable for the GOP as well, as are the state legislatures. In short, it seems that the predictions of the death of conservatism, and the Carvillian prophecy of forty years of Democrat rule, may have been a bit premature. In fact, it appears that not only will Democrats fall short of the forty year mark; they will fall short of the forty month mark.

For Republicans and conservatives across the nation, certainly this is an encouraging time. Less than two years ago it looked as if we would be wandering for years in the political Sahara, but now America is behind us once again. Or are they?

With all of the rosy news flowing in for Republicans, it would be easy to believe their own hype. However, I would submit that if Republicans allow themselves to buy into this mantra, then they are setting themselves up for failure just as the Democrats have done. In the 2006 and 2008 elections, Republicans lost 55 House seats and saw the Democrats take a 61-39 lead in the Senate (with self-proclaimed Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont caucusing with the Democrats). A number of factors led to these losses, but in large part it came down to a handful of issues; weariness of George W. Bush and eight years of war, an unending stream of revelations of corruption among elected Republicans, and out of control spending.

With polls showing no real movement between Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Robin Carnahan in the United States Senate race in Missouri, the DSCC is pulling out of the state and focusing elsewhere:

The DSCC is moving TV ad money out of Missouri, a sign that the Senate race may be moving beyond Democrats’ grasp.

Four Republican sources who monitor media buying and three Missouri TV stations have confirmed to Hotline On Call that the DSCC has canceled reservations from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25. The DSCC still has reservations in Missouri for the last week before Election Day.

“Yes, the weeks of Oct. 12 and Oct. 19 have been canceled for the DSCC in our station,” Sean Kellerman of WDAF, the Kansas City, MO, FOX affiliate, said.

“They have requested cancellations,” said Amy Warren of KCTV, Kansas City’s CBS affiliate.

This was one of the few Republican held seats that Democrats thought they had a shot at this year, but as they are forced to defend seats in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia, they have to start weighing their priorities.

Though Republicans have recently downplayed a takeover the House of Representative and Democrats are trying to sell the idea that losing less than the expected number of seats is somehow a victory, analysts are starting to see a clearer picture of what will happen on November 2nd:

The latest Cook Political Report House forecast says “the chances of Republican gains in excess of 45 seats are now better than their chances of falling short of 40 seats. We currently rate 74 Democratic incumbents as vulnerable, including 28 in the Lean Democratic column, 34 in the Toss Up column, and 12 in the Lean Republican column. Just four Republican incumbents are in real jeopardy.”

“Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”