United Liberty

Tomorrow is election day. As has been well documented here and elsewhere, Republicans are expected to pull off a huge electoral victory and take control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate will likely remain out of their grasp, a point conceded by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) over the weekend.

Charlie Cook updated his projections over the weekend, seeing greater gains for Republicans in the House than forecast in the lead up to the election (emphasis mine):

The Cook Political Report’s pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified. Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow. Over a quarter of the entire 255-member House Democratic caucus have trailed GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey, and nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll. At this point, only 185 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 200 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 50 seats are in the Toss Up column. While there are certain to be at least 43 new members of the House thanks to 41 open seats and two vacancies, between 40 and 50 incumbents (over 95 percent of them Democrats) are likely to lose their seats, making for possibly the largest freshman class since 1992.

Cook also gives us some things to look for tomorrow:

It’s an internal campaign poll, but according to Sean Beilat’s campaign, the GOP candidate is in a statistical tie with Rep. Barney Frank:

We obtained a Bielat campaign internal memo on their polling from last week showing the race is a statistical dead-heat against incumbent Congressman Barney Frank.  The memo, sent from an anonymous source,  illustrates and echoes only what we’ve been hearing and seeing on the ground.  While Sean Bielat’s number of supporters seem to be increasing at every event, Barney Frank’s supporters are all but non-existent.

Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, has moved MA-4 from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” This has prompted at least one conservative blogger to make the bold claim that it’ll be “bye, bye Barney” on November 2nd.

Last night, Brett Bittner, Stephen Gordon, Mike Hassinger, Shana Kluck, Doug Mataconis and myself all sat in for a podcast discussing the mid-term election, which is just five days away.

We touch briefly on some House races, but we talked more in-depth about some of the competitive Senate seats, including Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. We also got sidetracked on the Delaware race and had a lively discussion about the tea party movement when it comes to being a political movement. We also made some predictions on what to expect on election day.

You can listen to it here (about one hour in length).

The last round of polling from The Hill before election day has somewhat better results for Democrats that previous polling, however, it still looks bad for them on election day:

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.

The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).

Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play.

According to The Hll, Republicans are ahead in 31 out of the 40 districts polled that are currently held by Democrats. They also note that they didn’t even poll 15 districts because Republicans were already poised to win.

Here is a look at the latest polling from The Hill.

CO-3

• Scott Tipton (R): 47%
• Rep. John Salazar (D): 43%
• Undecided: 8%

FL-2

In the latest poll from Florida’s Eighth Congressional District, Daniel Webster is maintaining a seven point lead over Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson, a controversial freshman who has hurt himself by running misleading and false ads about his opponent:

• Webster: 48%
• Grayson: 41%
• Other: 5%
• Undecided: 5%

Webster leads among independents, 48% to 33%, and viewed more favorably, 47/33, than Grayson, who is viewed unfavorably by 55% of voters in the district. But here is the kicker from the poll:

Since the Sunshine State News Poll shows Webster’s margin widening to 11 points among voters who say they are most likely to cast ballots (51-40), [Voter Survey Service President Jim] Lee projected that the Republican could top 50 percent on election night.

The seat has been viewed as a likely GOP pick-up for sometime, but even if the GOP doesn’t take the House and Alan Grayson loses, I’d be happy.

The latest picture of what to expect on November 2nd in the House of Representatives appears to be a worst-case scenario for Democrats as Gallup’s latest polling shows a huge lead for Republicans among likely voters, though there was a slight gain for the majority party. And to make matters worse for Democrats, it’s supposed to rain on election day in 20 states.

Before we dive into what the analysts are saying, Politico offers us 35 House races to keep our eyes on as returns come in.

The latest forecast from Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight estimates a net gain of 52 seats for Republicans. This would put the make-up of the House at 231 Republicans and 204 Democrats.

Here is what Charlie Cook says about the mid-term:

With a week to go, Marco Rubio (R-FL) is poised to defeat Gov. Charlie Crist, who bolted from the GOP once it was apparent he had no shot to take the party’s nomination, and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

• Rubio: 41%
• Crist: 26%
• Meek: 20%

Voters in Florida, which are overwhelming trending Republican in early voting, are opposed to ObamaCare, which both Crist and Meek support, and are generally supportive of the tea party movement:

Fifty-two percent of voters — and even one in four Democrats — think the healthcare plan passed by Congress should be repealed. Only about one in three voters think it should remain in place.

Crist has been blasting Rubio as an extremist tea party candidate but 53 percent of voters say they personally identify with the insurgent tea party movement for lower taxes and less spending. That includes 80 percent of Republicans, 44 percent of independents and 28 percent of Democrats.

Barring some sort of miracle, Rubio will be the junior Senator from Florida come November 2nd.

After a poor performance in a recent debate and a new poll showing Sharron Angle with a small lead, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is facing more bad news as early voting numbers are going against him:

Early-voting numbers out of Nevada’s two biggest counties could spell trouble for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in his tough contest against Republican Sharron Angle.

In Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’s Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state’s voter population.

The sparsely populated counties outside Clark and Washoe, which have yet to report complete early-voting results, are strongly Republican.

Some 47 percent of early voters in the bellwether Washoe County so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats, according to the Washoe County Registrar. Nearly 11,000 people had voted in Washoe over the first three days of early voting, which began Saturday.

Voter registration in the county is evenly split, 39 percent to 39 percent. The disproportionate turnout is a concrete indication of the Republican enthusiasm that is expected to portend a nationwide GOP wave.

In Clark County, which is heavily Democratic, more Democrats than Republicans have voted, but Republicans are outperforming their share of the electorate.

Well, this is interesting. According to Politico, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) has loaned his campaign $200k to fend off a challenge from Sean Bielat (R-MA).

Longtime Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank has given his re-election campaign $200,000 as he faces his toughest race in years.

A campaign finance report filed Tuesday showed that Frank, the chairman of the powerful House Financial Services committee, lent himself the money Tuesday.

Frank, a 15-term lawmaker from Newton, Mass., raised $316,644 last quarter and reported more than $1 million on hand with no debts.

Bielat seems to have Frank worried as even his partner recently heckled him, which has drawn criticism from local media. Here is the video (notice how Bielat is pretty amused by it all):

Cook Political Report still shows the MA-4 as “Likely Democratic,” so the chances of Bielat taking the seat are low…but it’s entertaining for sure.

A day after Public Policy Polling put out a questionable survey in Pennsylvania, Morning Call released numbers from tracking they are doing in the race between Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak.

• Sestak: 44%
• Toomey: 41%
• Not sure: 15%

Here is a look at the D/R/I breakdowns from recent polling compared to exit polling from 2006 and 2008, which were strongly Democratic years, and 2004, which saw a Republican Arlen Specter win re-election.

• Morning Call: 46/46/8
• Public Policy Polling: 48/41/11
• Rasmussen: 45/37/17
• 2008 Exit Polling: 44/38/18
• 2006 Exit Polling: 43/38/19
• 2004 Exit Polling: 41/39/20

You can see that both Morning Call and Public Policy Polling are both underweighting independents, though the former is more noticable.  This is the reason I’ve been so skeptical about polling. Adding to my argument is nearly every poll since June has showed Toomey’s support at 45% or higher. Like I said yesterday, the race is likely tightening, but there needs to be a measure of skepticism here considering that nearly every recent poll has Toomey with a decent lead.

Another point to take into account is that absentee voting in Pennsylvania has an advantage for Toomey: