United Liberty

In response to Jason’s post indicating where he ranks the GOP candidates, which was followed by the CNBC economy debate, I decided to have some fun and create two lists from before and after the debate. First, Jason’s List:

1. Gary Johnson
2. Ron Paul
3. Jon Huntsman
4. Rick Perry
5. Newt Gingrich
6. Mitt Romney
7. Michele Bachmann
8. Herman Cain
9. Rick Santorum

Here is my list BEFORE the debate:

1. Gary Johnson
2. Ron Paul
3. Jon Huntsman
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Mitt Romney
6. Rick Perry (Perry and Romney tied)
7. Herman Cain
8. Michele Bachmann
9. Rick Santorum

And here is my updated list after last night’s debate with comments:

1. Gary Johnson: Honestly, this is the first time I remember agreeing with literally everything a candidate for any office says. If I have one disagreement, it would featuring Marijuana legalization as a top issue. Johnson was never taken seriously by the GOP mainstream because he was immediately tabbed as “the pot guy”. In the uptight GOP base, it immediately disqualified him.

We do a regular feature here, a “power ranking” of the GOP presidential candidates. It’s similar to what commentators post for football or other sports. But during a chat with a friend a couple of days ago, I was asked to list my preference for the Republican nomination for president. I explained that there weren’t many real options for me, as a libertarian, given that the candidates are very anti-libertarian outside of Gary Johnson and Ron Paul.

But my friend encouraged me to “give it a whirl anyway.” So while I’m indulging my friend here, the reality is if Johnson wasn’t running, I’d vote for Paul. If neither were in the race, I’d stay home. So anyway, here goes my list:

- Gary Johnson: Easily the most traditionally libertarian on the issues. Unfortunately, Johnson isn’t receiving due attention, despite his impressive fiscal record as a two-term Governor. I realize that when I vote for Johnson, I realize I’ll be casting a ballot for someone with no chance of winning the GOP nomination; and I’m OK with that.

- Ron Paul: I still have some issues with Ron Paul, but he has run better campaign this time around and has influenced politics in the GOP. That in and of itself is a win.

- Jon Huntsman: There are some positions that Huntsman has taken that I’m not fond of, but his tax plan is the best I’ve seen in the field.

- Rick Perry: Many conservatives abandoned Perry over the immigration issue. I thought that was the best thing about him. His tax plan is also a good start, but is a bit watered down to be called a “flat tax.”

The primary calendar keeps getting pushed more into January. As you know, both South Carolina and Florida announced last week that their respective primaries would be moved earlier in the year to January 21st and January 31st. Not to be outdone, the Nevada GOP yesterday moved its caucus to January 14th:

The Nevada Republican Party announced Wednesday that it will hold its presidential caucus on Jan. 14, likely pushing the first votes of the 2012 election cycle into 2011.

“I’m extremely pleased to finally have a firm date for a caucus that will greatly improve Nevada’s standing and relevance in terms of national politics,” Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said. “By establishing this date, we maintain Nevada’s standing as one of the first four ‘carve-out’ states and as the very first in the west.”

This move is very likely to bring us a scenario where we’ll see the first votes cast for the Republican nomination in December:

With Nevada’s decision to hold its caucuses on Jan. 14, it’s possible that the presidential primary season could begin immediately after Christmas — with New Hampshire settling on Jan. 7, and Iowa going either Dec. 28 or 29. If that happens, it could be the straw that finally breaks the camel’s back on Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s dominance of the primary calendar.

With Rick Perry’s campaign imploding, new polling out of Florida and Iowa shows Mitt Romney’s momentum continuing to build since the debate last week as he has taken the lead in both states.

The poll out of Florida, conducted by Public Policy Polling, was conducted between September 22nd, the date of the last GOP debate, to the 26th, so it includes a lot of post-debate opinions. Here are the results:

• Mitt Romney: 30%
• Rick Perry: 24%
• Newt Gingrich: 10%
• Ron Paul: 8%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Michele Bachmann: 6%
• Jon Huntsman: 3%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Gary Johnson: 1%
• Other: 9%

The poll out of Iowa is from the American Research Group, which hasn’t polled there since July (before Perry got in the race). The last three polls out of Iowa, however, have showed Perry with a lead. This poll was taken between September 22-27.

• Mitt Romney: 21%
• Michele Bachmann: 15%
• Rick Perry: 14%
• Ron Paul: 12%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Herman Cain: 6%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other: 6%
• Undecided: 15%

Bachmann is hanging her entire campaign on Iowa. If she doesn’t win there in the caucuses, she’s done. I’m mean, she’s done anyway, but can’t reasonable justify staying in the race at that point. It’s bad enough for Perry that he’s not leading here in this poll, but he’s in a statistical tie for runner up. If Romney takes Florida, Iowa and, New Hampshire…it’s game over. He’s your nominee.

We’ve been meaning to run a poll here for sometime on the Republican nomination, but I haven’t gotten around to putting it together. But since I’m short on content this morning thanks to an incredibly busy evening last night, I figured this would be the perfect chance for it.

Below is our poll of the nine candidates Republican candidates that participated in the most recent debate. In other words, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, and Chris Christie aren’t included since they haven’t confirmed anything at this point.

The latest poll out of the battleground state of Virginia — this one coming from Roanoke College — continues to bring bad news for President Barack Obama, as both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry hold leads in prospective general election matchups; though the Senate race between George Allen and Tim Kaine remains very close (emphasis mine):

With 14 months remaining until the 2012 election, Virginia’s U.S. Senate race is a statistical dead heat. Republican George Allen leads Democrat Tim Kaine 42% to 39% with 19% undecided. President Obama trails some potential Republican opponents, but he leads others. The generic (unnamed) Republican leads Obama 41% to 33%; Mitt Romney leads 45% to 37%; and Rick Perry leads by an statistically insignificant 42% to 40%. At the same time, Obama leads potential opponents Michele Bachmann (46% to 35%), Ron Paul (43% to 33%), and Sarah Palin (50% to 31%). Looking only at registered voters, none of those margins change by more than 1 percent and several do not change at all. Within two key groups, Kaine leads among Moderates (52%-30%), but Allen leads among Independents (42%-33%). Obama also performs better among Moderates and not as well with Independents.*

The poll also shows that Obama’s approval rating is a pathetic 39%, while 54% disapprove. Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, is doing incredibly well with voters, as he can boast to a 67% approval rating. Sen. Mark Warner, a Democrats, also has a 67% approval rating, but he’s not up for re-election next year.

We can begin to assess the damage that Rick Perry has done to himself thanks to CNN releasing the first post-debate numbers. The poll (we’re going with the numbers that exclude Sarah Palin), conducted between September 23-25, shows Perry’s dropping by two points over the last couple of weeks; from 32% to 30%. Mitt Romney only picked up a point, but has narrowed the lead to single-digits.

• Rick Perry: 30%
• Mitt Romney: 22%
• Newt Gingrich: 11%
• Herman Cain: 9%
• Ron Paul: 7%
• Michele Bachmann: 6%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other: 3%
• None/No opinion: 8%

Perry’s lead over Romney is slightly narrowed even more — 28% to 21% — if you include Palin. But back to the numbers above. Gingrich sees a four point jump from the last CNN poll, despite done better than 8% since mid-July. Cain gained three points. Ron Paul dropped by six points, which is bad news. Bachmann, as you’ve probably noticed, is now in the bottom tier of GOP candidates; though she is still within the margin of error of Paul and Cain.

The poll also shows President Barack Obama’s approval rating at 45%, while 52% disapprove. Interestingly, 62% of respondents to the poll believe that Romney “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” That’s better than Obama, who grabs 58% of voters on that question. Another 52% disagree with Obama on the issues that matter most to them, 46% agree with that assessment.

In case you mussed it, here is the video of last night’s Republican presidential debate hosted by Fox News/Google, which was probably the best I’ve watched thus far:

Here are a few quick observations. While I’m not his biggest fan, Mitt Romney did very well. Rick Perry was unprepared and bombed. Gary Johnson was able to introduce himself, had the line of the night, and is reaping the rewards this morning. Last night was, by far, Ron Paul’s best performance in a debate. Michele Bachmann doesn’t matter anymore. Newt Gingrich is still a master of rhetoric. Herman Cain is good at giving sound bytes, but soft on substance. Jon Huntsman was marginalized. Rick Santorum bombed a question on DADT from a gay soldier, but really took an unprepared Perry to task on immigration (and I say this as someone that favors increased immigration and despises both Santorum).

The latest Quinnipiac poll out of Florida, taken prior to last night’s date and the first since Rick Perry entered the race, shows the Texas Governor with a slight lead over Mitt Romney.

Here’s how the field stacks up in Florida right now:

• Rick Perry: 31%
• Mitt Romney: 22%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Herman Cain: 8%
• Michele Bachmann: 7%
• Ron Paul: 6%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Other: 1%
• WV/DK/NA: 14%

The poll also shows Barack Obama’s numbers falling off significantly, leaving Republicans with an opportunity to pick up a much needed state:

Obama’s approval rating in the state continues to slide, falling below 40 percent. Now, just 39 percent of all Florida voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 57 percent disapprove. In early August, Obama’s approval rating in the state stood at 44 percent.

A majority of voters now feel that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, his worst score on that measure. Only 41 percent of voters feel he does deserve to be re-elected, including just 39 percent of independents.

Even though he is leading among Republicans in Florida, Perry trails Obama in a potential head-to-head matchup in the state (as you can see below). That doesn’t help ease concerns that he is unelectable, even though Obama’s numbers are lagging so badly. Romney on the other hand has a 7 point lead over Obama.

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

• Obama: 44%
• Perry: 42%
• Other: 2%
• WV/DK/NA: 12%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney’s support in New Hampshire is still overwhelming, according to a new poll from Suffolk University. The numbers show Ron Paul coming in a very distant 2nd and Jon Huntsman, who hasn’t done well in many polls, not far behind.

• Mitt Romney: 41%
• Ron Paul: 14%
• Jon Huntsman: 10%
• Rick Perry: 8%
• Sarah Palin: 6%
• Michele Bachmann: 5%
• Newt Gingrich: 4%
• Rick Santorum: 1%
• Herman Cain: 1%
• Buddy Roemer: 1%
• Undecided: 11%

Romney, Paul, and Huntsmann each picked up 6 points since the previous Suffolk poll out of New Hampshire in June. Bachmann has, unsurprisingly, lost support dropping from 11% to 5%.Perry’s lackluster performance isn’t odd since hasn’t focused much on New Hampshire, despite being hosting the first primary in the nation. He has instead spent much of his efforts in Iowa and South Carolina.

Suffolk notes that Romney’s support is solid:

In the event that their first choice dropped out of the Republican primary, those polled named Romney (21 percent) over Perry (20 percent) as their “second choice.” Paul received 9 percent as a second choice.

“Romney’s added strength in the second-choice question reduces the probability that any other candidate will be able to mobilize and capture all of the non-Romney voters as well as the undecided voters,” said Paleologos. “Romney is not only the overwhelming first choice, but he also has a competitive edge as a fallback option among voters who support other candidates.”