United Liberty

As noted yesterday, Magellan Strategies, a Republican firm, put out a poll on Wednesday showing Mitt Romney and Rick Perry doing very well against President Barack Obama in Florida. Well, that poll isn’t a fluke. Mason-Dixon, a national non-partisan firm, released numbers from the Sunshine State showing somewhat similar results, with Romney doing the best among the three candidates polled.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

• Obama: 43%
• Romney: 51%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

• Obama: 45%
• Perry: 46%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

• Obama: 46%
• Bachmann: 44%

Magellan’s numbers may have been somewhat inflated, as I acknowledged yesterday, but this about what I expected. We also learned yesterday that Obama is struggling in New Jersey, a traditionally blue state, where 47% of voters say he doesn’t deserve re-election and a majority disapprove of his job performance.

Mason-Dixon also had numbers specific to the Republican primary in Florida, which shows Romney leading Perry but 7 points and Michele Bachmann a distant third:

President Barack Obama, would be a tight race for re-election against three of his potential opponents, is in troubled waters in Florida, a crucial swing state that he carried in 2008. According to a recent poll from Magellan Strategies, Obama is trailing Rick Perry and Mitt Romney and in the margin of error against Michele Bachmann.

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

• Obama: 39%
• Romney: 49%
• Undecided: 12%

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

• Obama: 39%
• Perry: 46%
• Undecided: 15%

Barack Obama v. Michele Bachmann

• Obama: 42%
• Bachmann: 43%
• Undecided: 15%

Magellan is a GOP firm, so take it for what it is, but I can’t see these numbers being too far off. And before you say a conservative like Perry can’t win in Florida, see Marco Rubio’s win last year.

At the end of last year, polls showed Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) trailing a potential Republican opponent by 31 points. The latest polling out of the Nebraska shows him trailing two GOP opponents, though by smaller margins, with only 29% of the state’s voters believing Nelson deserves re-election:

Fifty-nine percent of Nebraska voters said it was time to give a new person a chance to represent the Cornhusker State in the Senate, making for a possibly difficult path to victory for Nelson in 2012.

Two state Republicans, Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer-elect Don Stenberg, enjoy early leads over Nelson, according to a Magellan Research Group poll conducted last week.

If the 2012 election were held today, Bruning would best Nelson, 52-38 percent, with 10 percent undecided.

Stenberg enjoys a smaller margin over Nelson. Forty-six percent of Nebraska voters would elect Stenberg, while 40 percent would vote for Nelson.

While Nelson is more conservative than many of this fellow Democrats, he will have to answer for his votes on the stimulus and ObamaCare. As I often said about Harry Reid in this past cycle; we’re still a long way off, anything can happen.