2010 Senate Election

In an effort to keep you up to date on the upcoming mid-term elections, we’ve put together a list of the most vulnerable seats in Congress. This page contains the seats up for election in the United States Senate. Click here to view vulnerable or toss-up seats in the House of Representatives.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

United States Senate

Republicans are expected to do well in the House of Representatives (you can view House races below) with current projections showing control of that chamber up for grabs. The Senate has been overlooked, for the most part. Though prospects for a Republican takeover are unlikely, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Democrats currently hold 59 seats in the Senate, including two independents that caucus with them. Republicans hold 41 seats. There are 37 seats up for grabs this year, of those 17 are competitive.

The first table shows the competitive seats, races that pollsters and analysts generally consider to be worth watching or seats that there is an expected switch in party control.

Competitive Senate Races

KY Senate: Paul leads Conway by 8 points, at 51%

A new poll from Survey USA shows Rand Paul leading Jack Conway by eight points in the race to be the next United States Senator from Kentucky.

General Election: Rand Paul v. Jack Conway

  • Paul: 51%
  • Conway: 43%
  • Undecided: 5%

Paul holds a lead with all age groups and is picking up the support of 25% of Democrats. He also has a lead among independents, 54% to 36%. That’s up from the previous poll conducted by Survey USA back in May.

You can view all polling in this race here.

Rand Paul Is Wrong About Immigration

I’m usually pretty supportive of Rand Paul, but there are some issues where he’s wrong, and immigration is one of them:

Paul recently suggested to a Russian TV station that the U.S. should abandon its policy of granting citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants — even if they’re born on U.S. soil.

Paul also said he’s discussed instituting an “underground electrical fence” on the border to keep out unwanted elements, though he emphasized that he’s “not opposed to letting people come in and work and labor in our country.”

The real problem, Paul said, is that the U.S. “shouldn’t provide an easy route to citizenship” because of “demographics.”

According to Paul, the proportion of Mexican immigrants that register as Democrats is 3-to-1, so of course “the Democrat Party is for easy citizenship.”

He added: “We’re the only country that I know that allows people to come in illegally, have a baby, and then that baby becomes a citizen. And I think that should stop also.”

Video (immigration discussion begins around 8:30 in):

There’s just one problem with Paul’s position, and it starts with Section One of the 14th Amendment:

Rand Paul Sits Down With Local Media To Talk About The Week That Was

He may have backed out of Meet The Press, but Rand Paul did give one interview this week, with Louisville’s WHAS political reporter Joe Arnold:

(WHAS11) Facing increased scrutiny of how his libertarian views apply to current laws and potential legislation, Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul on Friday clarified earlier remarks about the Civil Rights Act of 1964, adding that the remarks were part of “a philosophic debate about a moot point.”

In an interview at his Bowling Green, Kentucky opthamology practice with WHAS11’s Joe Arnold, Paul also backed off his repeated calls to abolish the U.S. Department of Education, expressed support for school choice and vouchers, and tried to renew the focus of the Senate race on the central tenet of his campaign, cutting spending as the U.S. debt spirals.

“These are big problems,” Paul said, “We can get sidetracked into emotional issues that have nothing to do with fixing the big problem.”

In the wake of the controversy that followed Paul’s Wednesday night appearance on MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show, and subsequent interviews with other national networks, the Paul campaign has suspended interviews with national reporters, including canceling a planned appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press. Referring to a live interview on ABC’s Good Morning America on Friday morning, Paul said he “held my own against (George) Stephanapolous.”

Rand Paul Sets The Record Straight On Civil Rights

I’m not sure that its going to completely end the media firestorm until something else happens to grab the attention of the talking heads, but Rand Paul made two statements today that should go a long way toward putting this Civil Rights Act hullabaloo behind him.

First, he spoke with Laura Ingraham this morning and said that he agreed that the CRA was both necessary and “settled law:”

Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul acknowledged Thursday that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was necessary to foster racial integration, a day after stumbling into a political mess by dodging questions about whether he would have voted for the law.

Appearing on Laura Ingraham’s show to do some clean-up after Wednesday’s interviews, Paul said: “There was a need for federal intervention so we can’t have segregation.”

The Republican accused liberals of trying to portray him as a racist for expressing philosophical concerns about the role of government in desegregating private business, explaining that he was not interested in revisiting the law.

“These are settled issues,” Paul said. “I have no intention of bringing up anything related to the Civil Rights Act.”


Then the Paul campaign issued this statement:

Trey Grayson’s voters may not be sold on Rand Paul

With his impressive victory in Kentucky last night, Rand Paul is now faced with winning over Trey Grayson’s voters, who were more in line with the neo-conservative establishment of the Republican Party. Polling suggests his work is cut out for him:

The likely Rand Paul victory in the Kentucky Republican primary today should give Democrats a very good chance of winning in the fall because supporters of Trey Grayson, Paul’s main opponent, really don’t like him.

Some primaries play out in such a way that party loyalists view several of the candidates favorably and just choose the one they like best. That was very much the case with the recent Democratic contest in North Carolina. But in Kentucky we find that Paul’s supporters hate Grayson, and that even more Grayson’s supporters hate Paul.

53% of likely Grayson voters for today have an unfavorable opinion of Paul to only 23% with a positive opinion of him. More importantly though just 40% of Grayson voters say they’ll support Paul in the general election if he wins the Republican nomination with 43% explicitly saying they will not.

Grayson and Mitch McConnell are committed to assisting Paul win and will be holding a “unity rally” on Saturday in Frankfort at the state GOP headquarters. But the fearmongering by the neo-conservatives will cost the Republican Party this election in November if a large portion of Grayson’s voters stay home.

Rand Paul’s victory speech

See Video

Live-Blog: Party primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania

We’re live-blogging returnns in the party primaries this evening from Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania.

We’ve been pulling for Rand Paul in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s United States Senate seat as he has taken on his party’s establishment, not just in the state, but also from Washington.

Though we have no particular dog in the fight, the primary fight between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary for United States Senate in Pennsylvania has been interesting to watch and will have implications in November as Republicans, with Pat Toomey carrying the banner, have a good shot at taking the seat.

Kentucky Senate: Rand Paul 52% Trey Grayson 34%

The final Public Policy Polling poll of the Kentucky Senate race has more good news for Rand Paul:

Fueled by a high level of unhappiness with the direction of the Republican Party, Rand Paul appears to be poised for an easy victory over Trey Grayson in Tuesday’s Kentucky Senate primary. He leads PPP’s final poll 52-34.

There are more Republicans planning to vote on Tuesday (41%) who are unhappy with the current direction of their party than ones who are happy with it (36%). Among those discontented folks Paul has a staggering 59-28 lead which more than offsets the 47-45 lead Grayson has with the voters who think the party’s current course is fine.

A Paul victory will be a clear signal that Kentucky Republicans want the party to move further to the right. 32% of likely primary voters think that the party is too liberal and Paul has a 71-21 advantage with them that accounts for almost his entirely polling lead. With the other 68% of voters who don’t think the party’s too liberal Paul is ahead only 45-41


When PPP first polled this race right before Christmas Paul had a double digit lead, and it seems he’s never looked back. Other candidates might want to study what Paul did to build such an apparently insurmountable lead during the last quarter of 2009 because it’s definitely one of the biggest surprises of this election cycle so far.

Indeed, and good news for those who want to see the GOP return to small-government fiscal conservatism.

Live-blog tomorrow night

We’ll be live-blogging returns for primaries tomorrow evening from four states, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania. These returns will include Rand Paul’s bid for United States Senate in Kentucky over establishment candidate Trey Grayson.

Tune in tomorrow night!

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