United Liberty

Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning firm, has new numbers in the race for the Republican nomination for president. As you may have guessed, Rick Perry still has a solid lead over Mitt Romney, but there is bad news for Michele Bachmann:

• Rick Perry: 31%
• Mitt Romney: 18%
• Ron Paul: 11%
• Newt Gingrich: 10%
• Michele Bachmann: 9%
• Herman Cain: 8%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Other/Not sure: 8%

Perry and Romney are actually down by 2 points from the last Public Policy Polling survey in the race of announced candidates (ie. excluding Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan). Paul is up 5 points. Bachmann dropped by 7 points and has been surpassed by Gingrich, who may do a decent job in debate; but his share of the vote to his name recognition is small.

If other polls show a similar fall for Bachmann, she’s going to have a hard time justifying her campaign’s existence; not that this would discourage her from continuing along. However, this is more evidence that her thunder as been stolen as other, more electable candidates have entered the race.

Separately, Public Policy Polling notes that Perry is up big in the states of North Carolina and West Virginia, both of which will hold their primary on May 8th.

North Carolina

Just before last night’s debate in Tampa, Florida, CNN released the latest numbers in the race for the Republican nomination. It’s no surprise that Rick Perry is still the frontrunner, though he didn’t gain any ground from the previous CNN poll in August. Mitt Romney, however, picked up a few points:

• Rick Perry: 32%
• Mitt Romney: 21%
• Ron Paul: 13%
• Michele Bachmann: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 7%
• Herman Cain: 6%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Other: 2%
• None/No opinion: 7%

Romney is up 3 points over last month. The numbers in August showing Ron Paul at 6% prove to be an anomly as he is at 13% in this poll and back in third; behind Perry and Romney. Cain also came up by 3 points over the previous poll. Bachmann fell off by 5 points from August, once again showing her decline.

CNN also measured Palin’s presence in the race. But honestly, until she gets in the race, who cares anymore? She’s a non-factor until then and I’m tired of talking about her.

The number that stood out the most, especially when he is being pounded by other candidates on Social Security, is that Rick Perry is considered to be the most electable in the field. When asked “[w]hich Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?” Perry nabs 42% of responses. Romney, who does the best against Obama in most polls, takes 26%.

You have to hand it to Jon Huntsman, he’s averaging barely over 1% in national polls in his quest for the Republican nomination for president; but he just keeps on truckin’. His team put out a new ad yesterday contrasting his record on jobs to that of Mitt Romney (although he was never named, but video of a baseball glove or a mitt is shown), whose state, Massachusetts, was 47th in the nation during the same time:

Ok, it’s not a real endorsement, but the Socialist Weasel had some kind words for Huntsman during a recent interview in Newsweek:

Now he is directing his outrage at President Obama, a man he helped win office in 2008. “I don’t understand why he’s chosen the path he’s chosen, why he did not come in fighting for the working people of this country,” Moore tells Newsweek. “He could have been a great president. He could have pulled us back from the abyss.” Instead, “he came in more as Neville Chamberlain, wanting to appease Republicans.” Moore hasn’t even decided whether he’ll vote for Obama again in 2012; he likes Jon Huntsman on the Republican side, saying “it’s crazy time over there” and Huntsman is the only “sane candidate.” “If the Republicans were smart, they would nominate [him].”

Huntsman unveiled a solid tax reform plan last week, but he has said recently that he “wouldn’t hesitate” to ask the rich to make sacrifices to deal with the deficit. If it’s just means testing entitlements, that’s not a bad idea, but the rhetoric is all too similar to what we hear from President Obama. But at least he doesn’t talk about wealth in collectivist terms like Michael Moore often does.

H/T: AmSpec

Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China, unveiled a sweeping, pro-growth tax reform plan yesterday. James Pethokoukis has the details:

Huntsman says he would do the following:

1) Eliminate all deductions and credits in favor of three drastically lower rates of 8%, 14% and 23%.

2) Eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax.

3) Eliminate taxes on capital gains and dividends in order to eliminate the double taxation on investment.

4) Reduce the corporate rate from 35% To 25%. Huntsman would also shift to a territorial tax system and implement a tax holiday for the repatriation of foreign earnings.

Basically, this is the “zero option” Bowles-Simpson tax plan that lowers marginal tax rates and broadens the tax base. But there is at least one big difference. B-S would use part of the money from axing some $1 trillion in annual tax breaks to lower marginal rates and part for deficit reduction – a net tax hike. Huntsman would divert that extra tax revenue into “paying for” the elimination of investment taxes.

Someone pointed out not too long ago that history shows that whoever won the Iowa caucus and South Carolina primary has traditionally gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination. According to polling in the Hawkeye State, Rick Perry is holding a small lead there over Mitt Romney. But a new poll from Public Policy Policy out of South Carolina shows Perry running away with the state:

• Rick Perry: 36%
• Mitt Romney: 13%
• Sarah Palin: 10%
• Herman Cain: 9%
• Michele Bachmann: 7%
• Newt Gingrich: 7%
• Ron Paul: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other/Not sure: 7%

And without Palin in the race:

• Rick Perry: 36%
• Mitt Romney: 16%
• Michele Bachmann: 13%
• Herman Cain: 9%
• Newt Gingrich: 8%
• Ron Paul: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other/Not sure: 7%

While Romney would best Bachmann, 45% to 40%, in a head-to-head match up, Perry would beat him decisively, 59% to 28%. That’s certainly an ominous sign for Romney in a crucial early primary state.

Three polls last week showed that Texas Gov. Rick Perry has come on strong since announcing his bid for the Republican presidential nomination. The latest poll from CNN only drives that fact home:

• Rick Perry: 32%
• Mitt Romney: 18%
• Michele Bachmann: 12%
• Newt Gingrich: 7%
• Ron Paul: 6%
• Herman Cain: 3%
• Gary Johnson: 2%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Rick Santorum: 1%
• Thad CcCotter: 1%
• Other: 4%
• None/No opinion: 10%

Here are the numbers with Giuliani or Palin:

• Rick Perry: 27%
• Mitt Romney: 14%
• Sarah Palin: 10%
• Michele Bachmann: 9%
• Rudy Giuliani: 9%
• Newt Gingrich: 6%
• Ron Paul: 6%
• Herman Cain: 2%
• Gary Johnson: 2%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Rick Santorum: 1%
• Other: 3%
• None/No opinion: 8%

Interestingly, Gary Johnson polls higher than Huntsman and Santorum and is tied with Cain. Unforunately, he still is unlikely to be included in Politico’s debate next week.

For sake of keeping it simple, we’ll confine commentary to the poll without Giuliani or Palin. Perry has jumped by 14 points while Romney has seen a 7 point drop in him numbers from the poll released by CNN earlier this month. Bachmann hasn’t moved at all. Ron Paul’s support dropped by more than half, from 14% to 6%; suggesting that Perry is, perhaps, taking support from him.

There’s not much else to take from this than we haven’t already said in the last week. In fact, it feels like we’re suffering from polling overload at this point.

The candidates have been set for the debate, sponsored by Politico and NBC News, on September 7th at Ronald Reagan Presidential Liberty in Semi Valley, California. According to the press release from Politico, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have all confirmed for the debate.

Unfortunately, Gary Johnson and Thad McCotter have been excluded; although they did include Jon Huntsman, who is barely registering some polls.

The debate will air live on MSNBC at 8pm on Wednesday, September 7th. We’ll probably be live-blogging it here.

Here is the full press release from Politico.

Candidates Announcement for September 7 Debate

If you bothered to watch the GOP debate last night, you caught the most entertaining show yet as candidates sparred over each others record and on certain issues. There were plently of questions about credibility and viability, most of which were entirely valid. But if you were looking for a serious discussion on the real issues the country faces, including dealing with entitlements, you were no doubt disappointed.

Here is the debate, in case you missed it:

As far as winners go, I’d say that Mitt Romney could be considered a winner since he came out unscathed, not because he offered impressive knowledge of the issues or gave a dominating performance. Michele Bachmann probably should be considered a winner as well because the sparring with Tim Pawlenty probably helped her more than it hurt her.I don’t know why any candidate would purposefully pick a fight with her and keep at it like that. It only endures her more to her base.

Who are the losers? Anyone that watched and Newt Gingrich, who spent part of the evening complaining petulant 10 year-old that the questions were unfair.

With the Ames Straw Poll this weekend, the most important date in the campaign at this point, candidates are feverishly fighting for position in Iowa. The latest from poll Rasmussen out of the Hawkeye State shows three candidates, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul within 6 points of each other and Rick Perry, who will finally announce that he is running on Saturday, isn’t far behind.

• Michele Bachmann: 22%
• Mitt Romney: 21%
• Ron Paul: 16%
• Rick Perry: 12%
• Tim Pawlenty: 11%
• Newt Gingrich: 5%
• Herman Cain: 4%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Other: 7%

Pawlenty is downplaying the significance of the straw poll, that is if a “credible” candidate doesn’t win; clearly a shot at Bachmann and Paul. Nevermind that he is flirting with Huntsman and Santorum for the least likely to win the nomination, that is if you pay attention to the national polling. Even Paul, for example, has a good chance of winning, it shouldn’t been passed off as a fluke; as David Boaz notes in response to George Will: