United Liberty

Just a couple of weeks ago, a poll showed Sen. Evan Bayn (D-IN) with leads over two of his potential Republican Party challengers. With his decision to retire rather than seek re-election, the atmosphere has changed.

According to new polling from Rasmussen, all three of the potential Republican challengers (Dan Coats, John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman) leads the potential Democrats (Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, though Ellsworth is expected to run).

Dan Coats v. Brad Ellsworth

• Coats: 46%
• Ellsworth: 32%
• Other: 7%
• Not sure: 15%

John Hostettler v. Brad Ellsworth

• Hostettler: 46%
• Ellsworth: 27%
• Other: 7%
• Not sure: 19%

Marlin Stutzman v. Brad Ellsworth

• Stutzman: 40%
• Ellsworth: 30%
• Other: 9%
• Not sure: 21%

Dan Coats v. Baron Hill

• Coats: 48%
• Hill: 32%
• Other: 6%
• Not sure: 14%

John Hostettler v. Baron Hill

• Hostettler: 49%
• Hill: 31%
• Other: 5%
• Not sure: 15%

Marlin Stutzman v. Baron Hill

• Stutzman: 41%
• Hill: 33%
• Other: 7%
• Not sure: 19%

Buried deep inside stories on Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision not to seek re-election is potentially bad news for Indiana Democrats:

The timing of the expected Bayh announcement creates a dilemma for Democrats, though, since the deadline for candidates’ petitions to be submitted is Tuesday. That means Bayh’s name could still be on the ballot in May’s Democratic primary — Democrats will have another opportunity to pick a candidate through a separate nominating process. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is considering whether it would be possible for a replacement to be named.

Ballot access laws in the state require a candidate for office to have a nominating petition of 5,000 signatures, which would have been a difficult task to accomplish by noon today, with Sen. Bayh’s announcement occurring yesterday. It’s being reported that Democrat candidate, Tamyra D’ippolito, has the 5000 signatures necessary, but no reports yet of whether or not she turned them into the state in time.  No doubt, some sort of candidate substitution law already exists (not sure about that though) or the decision will be made by the state party itself.

Another prominent Democrat has decided to retire:

Media reports say that Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana has decided to not seek re-election.

The Indianapolis Star reports that Bayh is attributing his decision to excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.

Bayh scheduled a Monday afternoon news conference in Indianapolis.

This is somewhat of a surprise considering that Bayh, who briefly considered a run for the White House in 2008 and was rumored to be among Barack Obama’s top choices for Vice-President, would have likely won re-election easily.

Despite a recent poll showing him with a lead over Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) will stay put. Erick Erickson has the details, including a letter from Pence:

After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010.

I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.

Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) trailed Bayh by 3 points in yesterday’s Rasmussen poll, though inside the margin of error. Bayh was unable to receive anymore 45% support against any of the three Republicans polled.

News got out last week the National Republican Senatorial Committee was meeting with Rep. Mike Pence about a possible bid against Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN). There no indication either way right now on what Pence will do, but a new Rasmussen poll shows him leading Bayh by a 3 point margin (though within the margin of error):

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is another Democratic incumbent who could find himself in a tough reelection battle this fall. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds that Bayh attracts support from just 44% or 45% of voters when matched against his top potential Republican challengers.

Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly considering running against Bayh. At this time, he attracts 47% of the vote while Bayh picks up 44%.

A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%.

Freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman has announced that he is in the race. He trails the incumbent by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

President Barack Obama has a disapproval rating of 56% and 60% of Indiana voters disapprove of the health care plan.

Don’t get your hopes up just yet, Bayh has been re-elected with over 60% of the vote in each of his last three bids for re-election. With that said, it shows how angry voters are with Democrats, especially since Obama won this state in 2008.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) is meeting with the National Republican Senatorial Committee to discuss a potential run against Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN):

GOPers have failed to recruit a top-tier challenger against the popular 2-term incumbent, thanks largely to Bayh’s bankroll. He had $12.7M in the bank as of Sept. 30, and GOPers expect he would be able to raise many more millions before Election Day.

But Pence has a base, especially as the number 3 GOPer in the House, and top Senate strategists believe he would be able to raise the money to compete with Bayh. He also has the national ambition, and Senate strategists plan to point out those ambitions are difficult to achieve without a Senate seat.

Yet Pence’s team is acutely aware of the financial challenge such a race would pose, and he had just $462K CoH at the end of the 3rd quarter. Pence’s decision will rest heavily on whether the NRSC would make a financial commitment to help make up the early difference, a source close to Pence said. The source also said Pence is unlikely to turn down the offer soon, indicating he is taking the notion seriously.

If you were paying attention to the news after the results of the special election in Massachusetts, you may recall that Sen. Bayh was one of the first out of the gate calling the outcome a “wake up call” and criticized the “furthest left elements in the Democratic Party” for “attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country.”

Bayh was re-elected in 2004 with over 61% of the vote. Indiana, a traditionally red state, went for Obama in 2008 by about 28,000 votes. It was the first time the state went for a Democrat since 1964.

The Indiana General Assembly is not currently in session. In fact, they are hardly ever in session. This past year, they spent a lot of time debating a budget for the state. They required a special session to get that done. One thing they didn’t address was Sunday sales of alcohol.

Indiana, like many other states, still has “blue laws” on the books which regulate and/or prohibit the sale of alcohol in various ways. A study committee was established to hold hearings, review and recommend potential legislation for the upcoming session. The Interim Study Committee on Alcoholic Beverage Issues convened over the past several weeks and voted on their recommendations on Tuesday, October 20.

The study committee has voted to recommend no changes to existing law. The two key proposals (which were shot down) were to allow Sunday sales of alcohol (defeated 7-4) and to allow other businesses besides liquor stores to sell cold beer (defeated 11-0). The full story can be read here. I have not been able to locate any sort of formal report at this point in time.

Indianapolis already has a limited smoking ban. For the most part, the only places you can smoke are bars which do not employ or allow entrance to anyone under the age of eighteen, smoke shops, and bowling alleys. Smoke Free Indy, an anti-smoking activist group, is leading the charge to strengthen the ban and remove pretty much all existing exemptions.

Proposal 371, which would extend the ban, passed out of committee on October 14. It will go before the entire City-County Council on October 26. Potentially adding some strength to their position, a report from the Institute of Medicine was released the next day which supports smoking bans as an effective tool in improving public health. The folks at libertarian-minded Reason published a response to the report on their blog which questions the strength of their conclusions and provides other good background material.

I think it’s pretty clear that smoking isn’t the greatest lifestyle choice to maximize longevity. Second-hand smoke (apparently also called “passive smoking”) also has an adverse impact on health. We can all make our choices about smoking and, in today’s anti-smoking world, spend most all of our time avoiding second-hand smoke if we choose to do so. Smoking is legal. Adults should be able to congregate in public places to smoke.