House Election 2010
Dick Morris needs to shut up.
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, Larry Sabato, issued some insightful tweets on October 2nd that have gone largely ignored by many Right Wing Pundits, including Dick Morris.
1:15 PM Oct 2nd: Some GOP leaders need a refresher course in basic campaign strategy. Predicting R House pickups of +60, +80, +100 is just plain dumb.
1:17 PM Oct 2nd: (1) It isn’t going to happen;(2) It induces overconfidence;(3) If Rs win a narrow majority or just fall short, big gains look like a loss.
1:18 PM Oct 2nd: You’d think after all this time, people would’ve caught onto the polling game & wouldn’t take polls so seriously. And you’d be wrong.
Meanwhile, Dick is still out there claiming that the GOP will pick up 60+ seats in the house and regain control of the Senate as well.
Prediction: The Republicans will win the Senate, capturing seats in Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Washington state, Illinois and Nevada. And they could prevail in New York, Connecticut, Delaware and California to boot.
The GOP will capture the House by a goodly margin, winning upward of 60-plus seats now held by Democrats. And it could go a lot higher!
To be clear, any combination that includes either a new Speaker of the House and or a New Senate Majority leader will be a victory for the GOP. But predicting a sixty seat pick up in the house is not only silly, it sets up the Democrats with tools they need to marginalize their defeat.
Hoping your opponents continue to screw up is no way to run a political campaign, but Republicans across the Country have to wonder what they did to deserve a field of Democratic opposition that is so uniformly hapless, and led by a President so tone-deaf to public sentiment. While it is still too early to begin measuring drapes for new offices on Capitol Hill, every single piece of available data, every trend, and all of history indicate that November 2 will be a “wave” election that washes Democratic incumbents out to sea and out of power.
First, history: The party that’s not in the White House almost always gains seats in Congress –that’s nearly axiomatic. A 39 seat net gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives is as certain as anything can be 64 days before an election, though a similar, takeover-sized gain in the Senate is not as certain. Second, the data: Nearly every poll conducted in August shows a clear majority of the country feels the nation is on the wrong track, while a mere third (or less) believe that we’re headed in the right direction. President Obama’s job approval rating is abysmal: 54.5% disapproval to 38.7% approval –and that’s just among independents! Mr. Obama can take comfort in the fact that while his numbers are bad, America hates Congress even more. Current polls show more than 71% of the people disapprove of Congress, while less than 20% approve.
The GOP will be watching the U.S. Senate race in Georgia very closely this year. Johnny Isakson, disliked by many Republican voters, is expected to win the election in November and return to the U.S. Senate for another six years.
In the past few years, Georgians have been awakened to Isakson’s liberal tendencies, but they are scared to vote against him. No viable candidate will challenge Isakson in a primary election, and he will win the general election because voters refuse to vote for a non-Republican out of a fear of being represented by a Democrat.
Isakson has spent his time in Washington – even his time in the Senate during the Obama administration – working to increase government spending and to justify the continued growth of our federal government. Johnny Isakson is clearly not a good choice for the conservative voter.
There is a conservative on the ballot this year, his name is Chuck Donovan. He wants to cut spending, reduce our federal debt, and limit our financial obligations. I am convinced he would work tirelessly, without compromise, to meet these goals.
Not too many years ago, the GOP had a chance to stand against big government and increased spending. That opportunity was squandered by the likes of Isakson, which caused them to lose the majority in Washington. If we vote to re-elect those that wasted their opportunity to limit government the first time around, how ludicrous is it to think they will do better if given another opportunity?
Our own B.J. Lawson has announced plans to seek the Republican nomination in North Carolina’s Fourth Congressional District. Lawson was the GOP nominee in 2008 and was edged out by incumbent Democrat, Rep. David Price.
We hope to be chatting with him on a podcast soon.
The last outstanding race of the 2010 mid-term election ended yesterday in NY-1 as Randy Altschuler conceeded to his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Bishop:
Republican Randy Altschuler conceded to Rep. Tim Bishop Wednesday morning, ending the last unresolved Congressional race in the nation.
Altschuler, a St. James businessman who poured $2.8 million of his own money into the race, congratulated Bishop (D-Southampton) and said he would not seek a full hand recount of the nearly 200,000 ballots cast.
Altschuler trailed Bishop by at least 263 votes with less than 1,000 uncounted absentee ballots.
This means that Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House of Representatives in the mid-term.
Continuing a trend that began with the GOP wins last year at the statewide level, Tuesday was a very good night for Republicans in the Old Dominion:
Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D) was holding on to a thin lead in the race to keep his seat Tuesday night, even as a Republican wave swept three fellow Democratic members of Congress from Virginia out of office.
In a rematch of their 2008 race, Connolly led Oakton businessman Keith Fimian (R) by less than 500 votes with 99 percent of precincts reporting in the 11th Congressional District, which includes most of Fairfax County and a portion of Prince William County. Connolly won by 12 percentage points two years ago and was leading Tuesday by less than 1 percent.
Connolly, a veteran politician who once headed the Fairfax Board of Supervisors, spoke to supporters late Tuesday and made what appeared to be an acceptance speech.
“I hope you will find me worthy… and accept my deep gratitude to continue to be able to serve this public for another two years,” he said.
But Fimian did not concede. His campaign released a statement early Wednesday saying, “In an election this close, it is important to take the time to get the result right by seeing the counting and canvassing process through.”
Fairfax elections officials said they had counted all of the votes – including absentee ballots – except for those in two precincts, where a small number of machines malfunctioned. Those votes will be counted Wednesday morning, Registrar Edgardo Cortes said.
Connolly won each of those precincts two years ago by 20 percentage points.
This is hilarious:
In 1992, a life sized donkey was placed at the front door of the Republican National Committee offices. It was a fitting prank in a year when Democrats took the White House and retained majorities in the House and Senate.
Last night, Republicans got payback.
That same donkey, shown here, was delivered after midnight to the steps of the DNC, covered in logo gear from the GOP’s successful 2010 campaign to take back a majority in the House.
Here is the photo:
Last night was truly a big night for Republicans. They are certain to take at least 60 seats in the House and six in the Senate (Colorado and Washington are still being counted, but look unlikely to be GOP pick-ups). Most of the bigger victories for the GOP in the House came from the East Coast, Midwest and the South.
Over in the Senate, Republicans failed to take advantage of vulnerable incumbents. Christine O’Donnell’s candidacy was a disaster from the start and Sharron Angle was a terrible candidate that couldn’t defeat an equally terrible candidate in Sen. Harry Reid.
Ken Buck was unable to take down Sen. Michael Bennet (though the GOP in that state seems to have some serious problems), who was nearly picked off in the Democratic primary. And Joe Miller appears likely to lose to Lisa Murkowski, who ran an effective write-in campaign.
Many are saying that the tea party movement was sucessful last night. While that’s true in some cases (such as Rand Paul and Pat Toomey), it’s not in others. The results for tea party candidates is mixed, at least on the Senate side.
We’ll have a more comprehensive write-up a bit later.
Join United Liberty as we live-blog election returns from across the country this evening. We’ll kickoff around 6:45pm and continue until at least midnight.