For all the election wonks out there, the upcoming elections will be an unending parade of political statistical analysis. So, this will be fun, at least for the people that enjoy wading through the numbers.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce already knows this, so it is investing in some candidates that are in theoretical danger of losing primary challenges. Regardless of whether or not anyone thinks that people like Jack Kingston and Thom Tillis should be supported for reelection, the Chamber thinks it’s the right move.
While there is a certain degree of populist energy behind more conservative or libertarian candidates this year, the bottom line remains that they are largely in untested waters. Yes, there have been good showings for some “third-party” candidates, but probable winners are few and far between.
Imagine this like placing money on a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Sure, it’s fun to put a few dollars down on the long-shot, but when you’re talking about a serious bet, the best bet will be the favorite.
“Establishment party” is starting to be considered like a profane phrase in many conservative circles. The problem remains the same as it has been for the past six years — the people in those circles rarely travel outside of their pleasant little echo chamber.
They regularly hear from fellow conservatives about how great their candidates are, and get hammered with polling information that is weighted in favor of the people they support. In other words, they’re complaining about party leadership being tone deaf to them, as they sit in their little circles with their friends that agree with them.