Electoral College

Electoral Vote: Romney still trailing Obama in campaign’s final hours

Obama and Romney debate

We’re coming down to the final hours of this electoral cycle. By late Tuesday night or perhaps even Wednesday morning, we’ll know whether voters will trust President Barack Obama with another term in office or if they’ll elect a different direction with Mitt Romney.

National polls are showing an incredibly close race, but those polls mean little when it comes down it. And though there are are many states considered to be part of the electoral battleground, those that will determine the election — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia — were made clear weeks ago. Early voting is considered to be a key part of success either candidate hopes to have in these states. And while it appears that Obama has a lead over Romney in early voting, Molly Ball reports that Republicans are performing better at this aspect of the election than they did four years ago.

Reforming the Electoral College

Electoral Vote for October 29th

There’s been a lot of talk lately, between Steven Taylor, Doug Mataconis, Jazz Shaw, and other bloggers, about the Electoral College. It seems to come up every now and then, usually in pieces calling for it’s abolition. That’s Steven’s and Jazz’s take, and they do make good points. Steven mostly thinks that the EC is irrelevant, and indeed, somewhat undemocratic:

Here’s the deal:  the only southern states that are true toss-ups are Virginia and Florida, and under any plausible EC scenario President Obama can lose them both and still win the electoral vote.  Governor Romney, however, can not.

Imagine a world in which all of those extra Southern voters mattered and imagine how differently the candidates would be behaving if that were the case.  As it stands, all of that Romney support is contained almost exclusively in places where extra support has no marginal value.  Each extra voter in Alabama who decides to vote for Romney simply doesn’t matter.  An Ohio voter, however, matters an awful lot.

A grand irony here is that a standard pro-EC argument is that it protects the states against national sentiment.  However, if the Gallup poll is correct and Romney wins the popular vote by a large margin due to overwhelming support in southern states, but still loses the electoral college, the fact of the matter will be that the EC actually diminished the significance of those states.

This is also, more or less, what Jazz Shaw thinks:

Electoral Vote: Romney making gains in swing states thanks to debate

Romney

It’s been a while since we’ve looked at the Electoral College, which is what really matters in the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Many Republicans keep pointing to national polls showing Romney either gaining on or leading Obama. This may be an important sign, but it’s very important to remember that the popular vote means nothing when looking at the presidential race.

Romney’s strong debate performance on Wednesday has given a boost to his mistake-ridden campaign, but as of now, the presidential race really boils down to four states — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia — representing 69 electoral votes.

According to Real Clear Politics averages, Romney is tied with Obama in Colorado and Florida and less that 1-point down in Virginia. However, Romney still trails by 3 points in Ohio. Say what you want about other swing states, but Romney has to run the table in the four states to win next month.

BREAKING: Obama projected to win re-election, Romney not ready to concede

Whatever else comes in doesn’t matter at this point because CNN just projected that President Barack Obama will win Ohio, putting him at 274 electoral votes. Romney was still trailing in Colorado and Florida when CNN made the projection.

20 PM

[UPDATE — 11:33 PM] Romney’s campaign is not conceding Ohio right now. They’re apparently not happy that media outlets have made the call on the Buckeye State. As of right now, President Obama leads Romney less than 30,000 votes in the state.

[11:36 PM] On Fox News, Megyn Kelly literally walked off the set and into the room where analysts are going over the numbers to ask them why they called Ohio for Obama. Apparently, Karl Rove took issue with the call in Ohio, suggesting that Romney could still close the gap. The Fox News analysts explained that while Romney may close the gap, there just aren’t enough votes in the state for him to win the race, noting that most of the remaining uncounted ballots would go to Obama.

ELECTION 2012: It’s looking bleak for Romney

As expected, this race will come down to four states — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia — of which Romney trails in all but one. Some states that Republicans thought were in play, such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, haven’t panned out.

Florida looks bad, in particular. Some of Obama’s strongest counties are still reporting, where Romney’s strongest areas are just about done. If Romney loses any of the big four, this race is over.

Here’s the Electoral College as of 10 PM:

Electoral Vote for November 6th @ 10 PM

Electoral Vote: Good and bad news for Romney

With exactly two weeks until election day, we’re keeping track of any change in the Electoral College. With that, Monday brought some good and bad news for Mitt Romney.

Let’s start with the bad news. While Republicans were excited to see a polling out of New Hamsphire showing Romney ahead, a new poll from University of New Hampshire (UNH) shows President Barack Obama with a 9-point lead, shift the state back into his column, according to Real Clear Politics. It should be noted that this poll seems to be, well, out there when compared to everything else coming out of New Hampshire.

In fact, UNH polls, in the past done in coordination with WMUR*, have generally shown a big lead for Obama, while Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling have both had either Romney or Obama up by 1-point in the last week. Suffolk University had the race for the state’s four electoral votes in a tie last week. Needless to say, UNH is an outlier at this point. But for sake of argument, let’s throw New Hampshire back to Obama for a moment.

The good news for Romney is that a new Suffolk University poll out of Ohio shows a dead-heat for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes. Public Policy Policy also released a survey out of the state over the weekend showing Obama up by 1-point. Keep in mind that no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, so the importance of this state cannot be overstated. There simply is no path to victory for Romney without victory here.

Electoral Vote: Race continues to tighten as Romney gains in key states

Romney

As President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney finish preparations for this evening’s debate, which will focus on foreign policy, it’s clear to both campaigns that the election is on the line and there is no room for error.

The momentum has stayed with Romney over the last several days, despite a stronger showing from Obama in the most recent debate. Post-debate polling indicated, however, that Romney sounded better than Obama on economic issues, the issue on the minds of most voters as they head to the polls.

Weeks ago, it looked like Obama was crusing to re-election. Just two weeks ago, he was easily leading Romney in the Electoral College, 332-206 (this is roughly where it has stayed since we started tracking in August). But that lead began to tighten as polls started to reflect the results of the first debate, which Romney handily won. Colorado and Florida drifted over into Romney’s camp, narrowing the Electoral College to 294-244.

By last week, Romney had taken a slight lead in Virginia, bringing the Electoral College to 281-257. As noted at the time, all that was standing in the way of a win for Romney, other than time, was Ohio, where Obama has maintained a small lead.

Electoral Vote: All eyes are on Ohio

It’s unclear what impact Tuesday night’s presidential debate will have on the race, though one would imagine that the impact will be minimal. There’s still not much margin for error in the race as a major gaffe could swing the election in one direction or the other.

But what we’re seeing now is a trend toward Mitt Romney in some crucial swing states, and perhaps an admission from President Barack Obama’s campaign that they may be about to surrender some ground, according to the National Journal:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Round 2: Obama, Romney to square off tonight

Obama and Romney debate

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will tonight square off for the second time. This debate, hosted by Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York and moderated by CNN’s Candy Crowley, who has been a source of concern for both campaigns, will be a townhall setting, where theoretically on-the-fence voters will be able to ask Obama and Romney questions about domestic and foreign policy.

Since the last debate, Obama has seen his numbers drop. Romney has managed to show momentum in some swing states, but he hasn’t been able to best Obama in Ohio or Virginia, two essential states to the GOP ticket. As of this morning, the Electoral College shows Obama up, 294-244.

Electoral Vote: Obama picks up steam, despite bad job numbers

Barack Obama

Just days after the end of the Democratic National Convention, it looks like President Barack Obama has managed to pick up a few points in national polling, which skews the view of the race because it’s a head-to-head match-up against Mitt Romney. With that said, however, there hasn’t been any real movement in the electoral vote count compared to our last few looks at the race.

Electoral Vote for 9/11/12

Romney’s campaign is urging Republicans not to get too worked up about recent polling, but an internal memo shows that they are in a bit of a panic over the last numbers. President Obama has his own problems to worry about as a new poll out of New Mexico shows Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee, getting some support from Democrats, putting Romney within five points. Johnson, who served two terms as Governor of New Mexico, has also managed to pull support from Obama in Colorado.


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