Obama has lost his hold on Millennials: Young people oppose gun control and affirmative action

Most political conventional wisdom pegs young voters and the not-yet-of-age as definitively liberal and probably tied to the Democratic Party for life. The saying goes that once a generation votes for the same party three times in a row, they’re lifelong adherents. The youth vote has gone to Obama and the Democrats in two successive presidential elections, but the all-important third may be elusive, for surprising ideological reasons.

Young voters have been one of the driving forces behind the recent surge in support for marriage equality and drug decriminalization, of course. But their party affiliation isn’t determinant there. Sixty-nine percent of voters under 29 support same-sex marriage, but 61% of young Republican voters do as well, and only 18% of them say gay couples raising children is bad for society. Sixty-one percent of voters under 29 also support legalization of marijuana.

This poll doesn’t have the same partisan generational breakdown as the marriage poll, but I would guess the ratio is similar, with a slight majority of young Republican voters opposing marijuana prohibition.

Support for gun control has also fallen the most among Millenial generation voters than other generations in just the last few years, from 59% in 2009 to 49% this year.


Today in Liberty: Democrats seek election strategy from an unpopular president, California Senate passes anti-NSA bill

“One of the greatest delusions in the world is the hope that the evils in this world are to be cured by legislation.” — Thomas B. Reed

— Happy Primary Day: Voters in six states, including Georgia and Kentucky, will head to the polls to cast their votes in party primaries. The race for the Republican nomination in Georgia will be one of the most-watched of the night. While polls show three candidates (David Perdue, Jack Kingston, and Karen Handel) are eyeing two runoff slots, low voter turnout could turn things upside down. In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is expected to easily win renomination. Republicans in Oregon are expected to nominate Monica Wehby to take on Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) in what appears to be a competitive race. That is is Wehby’s personal issues don’t knock her out of contention.

New battleground poll shows a looming election disaster for Democrats

A new battleground poll released this morning by Politico shows that Republicans hold a huge advantage over Democrats in key House and Senate races as voters overwhelmingly disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance and Obamacare, his signature domestic achievement (emphasis added):

In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.

Among these critical voters, Obama’s job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president’s position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded.

If those numbers weren’t bad enough, the graphic Politico included is just devastating for Democrats. As you can see, Republicans hold a 9-point advantage in competitive House districts and a 7-point lead in Senate races. Republicans need to win a net-six seats this fall to take control of the upper chamber.

Bad news for Democrats is good news for conservatives: Millennials abandoning Democrats in the mid-term election

This is the point at which Democrats should be hitting the “panic” button. A survey released this week by a Democratic pollster finds that only 30 percent of Millennials who voted for President Barack Obama in 2012 plan to are committed to voting for Democrats this fall:

Remember, Millennials voted overwhelmingly for President Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012. While Republicans still have problems with this voting bloc, as the poll finds, President Obama’s fall from grace is, well, very noticeable:

The line from Paul Harstad, the Democratic pollster who conducted the survey, is that a heavy investment in Millennials can bring them back into President Obama’s once strong coalition. That seems more wanting than anything else. The White House and congressional Democrats have focused on economic inequality, for example, only to find that the message isn’t resonating with young voters, who have developed a significant libertarian streak.

Yeah, there could be a point at which Democrats hit their stride and attract a large portion of Millennials to vote this fall. But, at least for now, the complacency young people are showing should make President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) very nervous about their party’s fortunes.

Demoralized Dems key to 2014 Republican victory

Gallup Enthusiasm Gap

Pundits are already giving Republicans an electoral edge over Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted in March that Republicans would win six seats in the Senate and capture control of the upper chamber this November, and Larry Sabato holds that Republicans will increase their majority in the House by five to eight seats.

A Gallup poll released yesterday seems to strengthen these predictions. Democrat enthusiasm is at a record low with 32% of Democrats more enthusiastic about 2014 and 55% less enthusiastic, a deficit of 23 points. Overall voter enthusiasm is down significantly from the 2010 midterms, with only 35% of all respondents more enthusiastic about the 2014 elections and 53% who are less enthusiastic, an 18-point deficit.

Despite what Rand Paul feels as a coming “wave election,” Republicans haven’t been spared in the enthusiasm gap. Gallup reveals that “42% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents currently say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, while 50% are less enthusiastic, resulting in an eight-point enthusiasm deficit.”


Nancy Pelosi was raising money for Democrats during Lois Lerner contempt vote

While the House of Representatives was voting on Wednesday to hold disgraced former IRS official Lois Lerner in contempt, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was in sunny California with President Barack Obama to raise money for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC):

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) did not attend the Wednesday evening vote series to hold former IRS official Lois Lerner in contempt for refusing to testify about the agency’s improper scrutiny of Tea Party groups.

She was, however, at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fundraiser attended by the president and roughly 90 guests at the home of Disney Chairman Alan Horn in Bel Air, Calif., according to a White House pool report.

She also did not vote on the resolution to call on the Justice Department to appoint a special counsel in the IRS investigation.

It’s worth noting that the money Pelosi and President Obama raised for the DCCC will go to help Democratic House incumbents and candidates win this fall, in what is, at least at this point, a very small hope that Democrats will win the chamber and put the Speaker’s gavel in her hand once more.

It’s not like Pelosi wouldn’t have voted for the two resolutions. But this just goes to show how little the Democratic leader cares about the IRS scandal. In fact, she had the audacity to use the targeting of conservative groups to call for more restrictions on free speech.

Voters to Democrats: It’s Obama, stupid!

Try as they may to reshape the narrative about the national political landscape to keep control of the Senate, the new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that one of Democrats’ biggest that problems is the majority of voters who want a Congress that will challenge President Barack Obama’s agenda:

The new Washington Post-ABC News survey showed that Obama’s approval marks had fallen 5 percent since the first three months of 2014 and that a majority of respondents wanted a Republican Congress to counter the White House.

Furthermore, just 42 percent of those surveyed approved of the president’s handling of the economy, 37 percent supported his implementation of Obamacare and just one-third of respondents backed his approach to the standoff with Russia over Ukraine.
Of those surveyed, 53 percent said it was most important to have a Republican Congress to challenge the president’s agenda while just 39 percent said they favored Democratic control on Capitol Hill.

Whatever bump Democrats thought they would get out of the supposed “good news” about Obamacare is gone. It turned out to be a blip on the radar. While Democratic leaders continue to defend the law, vulnerable members from red and/or purple states can’t do that on the campaign trail.

Today in Liberty: Dems worried Obama will compromise, Fourth Amendment at the Supreme Court

“One area of common ground for most politically engaged people (who aren’t cronies) is the issue of crony capitalism. [M]ost people, libertarians, progressives, liberals, conservatives, pretty much agree that using the government to further the interests of private parties for profit is wrong.”Nick Sorrentino

— Dems worried Obama will compromise: That relies on the assumption that Democrats perform poorly this fall, of course. “With Obama’s political career winding down and poll numbers continuing to languish, his party brethren fret that their own president — forced to work with GOP majorities — would give away the store on key policy issues ranging from the budget to energy and trade,” Politico explains. “It’s a concern congressional Democrats have voiced every time Obama and Vice President Joe Biden tried to cut big fiscal deals with Republicans — and the panic is now more palpable with the growing prospect of a Senate GOP majority.” Oh, God forbid President Obama wake up to a new reality on January 3, 2015 and realize he needs to, you know, actually work with Republicans if he wants salvage his legacy.

What South Park can teach us about current politics

South Park ran an episode in 2004 that revolved around an election of a new school mascot, the choices for which were a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich. Stan Marsh, one of the four main protagonists of the show, refused to vote and was subsequently booted from the fictional Colorado town.

Eventually, Stan came back to the town to cast his vote in the election, saying, “I learned that I’d better get used to having to pick between a douche and a turd sandwich because it’s usually the choice I’ll have.”

The episode wasn’t just brilliant indictment of the 2004 presidential election between then-President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), but also an American political system that presents Democrats and Republicans as the parties with the only answers to the United States’ woes.

Not much has changed in the 10 years since the boys from South Park were forced to choose between a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich. Voters are still presented with the same options at the ballot box, often forced to cast a ballot for a party that they feel doesn’t best represent the American people.

Rasmussen Reports released a survey on Thursday which found that 53 percent of likely voters “think it is fair to say that neither party in Congress is the party of the American people.”

Washington Post blasts Obama administration’s Keystone XL delay

The Washington Post is tired of President Obama’s “foot-dragging” on the latest delay of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. The paper’s editorial board, which has expressed support for the pipeline in previous missives, blasted the administration yesterday:


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