United Liberty

That’s according to a Whip Count from the liberal Firedoglake:

Definite YES:
191 Democrats.

Definite NO:
177 Republicans.

Definite NO:
25 Democrats.

19 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler.

6 Democrats & Republicans who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Joseph Cao (R).

18 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

15 possible:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague.

3 less possible:
Travis Childers, Heath Shuler (severe lean no), John Barrow.

20 potential Yes-No flip votes:

4 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello.

16 other wary Democrats:
Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, Dennis Cardoza, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Bishop.

Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 18 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 38.

And Republicans need just 14 votes out of that 38 to get to the 216 votes needed to defeat ObamaCare.

If your Representative is part of that group of 38, call now.

Passing ObamaCare through reconciliation may not be as easy as it sounds. If you caught our podcast with Michael Cannon, Director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, you’ll recall that he said that some House Democrats may be reluctant to vote for health care reform due to disagree over certain tax provisions and abortion language, based on a promise that a fix will be pushed through the Senate via reconcilition.

Cannon said:

So the problem though that the Democratic leadership is facing is that there is a lot that can go wrong in that reconciliation process. For example, you’re not supposed to able to make policy changes through the reconciliation process like the changes to the abortion language in the Senate bill that pro-life that pro-life House Democrats would like to see and so anything that goes wrong in the reconciliation process will scuttle those changes those changes that House Democrats want to see. Any changes that the leadership is promising House Democrats is that after the send the health care bill to the president to become law the House will pass the reconciliation package, the Senate will pass the identical passage and therefore all the House Democrats’ concerns will be met. But if Senate Democrats renege on that commitment then the House Democrats don’t get the changes they want. And why should the Senate Democrats follow through, the bill that they want to become law is already law.

It looks like the president and Democrats are ready to make a push on ObamaCare, which will likely be forced through Congress using reconciliation:

President Barack Obama is expected to publish his healthcare plan as early as Sunday or Monday, combining features of the two Democratic bills passed by the Senate and House of Representatives, congressional aides and healthcare advocates said on Friday.
[…]
The legislation the White House will post on its website is expected to reflect common ground negotiated over the past several weeks by House and Senate Democratic leaders.

Those agreements are likely to be combined as a privileged budget reconciliation bill, which only needs a simple 51-vote majority to pass the 100-member Senate instead of the 60-vote supermajority that has become routine in the Senate and gives Republicans power to block the healthcare bill.

“I believe that’s the path we are going to take,” a senior congressional Democratic aide said.

The government-run health care option is not off the table, according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). One thing I’m not clear on is whether this will be a new bill or the House will vote on the Senate’s version and produce a second bill, through reconciliation.

Reconciliation is not a cureall for Democrats’ problems with ObamaCare. As Jeff Davis notes at The New Republic, the process is anything but fast. and the minority can offer an unlimited amount of amendments, each of which must be voted on.

We often hear Blue Dog Democrats referred to as “fiscal conservatives” and we’re told about their concerns about the budget deficits.The guys over at National Taxpayers Union have put together a spreadsheet showing how Blue Dogs or otherwise vulnerable districts have voted on TARP, the auto bailout, the “stimulus,” the budget and ObamaCare (among a few other votes).

If you live in one of these districts, I’d encourage you to support their opponent in 2010. These Blue Dogs are not fiscal conservatives. They are part of the Culture of Debt in Washington, DC.

Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) explains his vote against ObamaCare:

Late Saturday night, the House of Representatives voted on H.R. 3962, the “Affordable Health Care for America Act.” Health care reform is one of the most critical issues facing this nation right now, and fixing the problem in a way that is sustainable over the long haul has to be one of our top priorities. I don’t think the bill that was before us does a good enough job of reaching that goal, and that’s why I couldn’t support it.
[…]
Unfortunately, the bill does a very poor job of regulating the insurance industry. Most of the insurance reforms we desperately need to protect folks from being denied coverage because of preexisting conditions, or from having their policies cancelled when they get sick, won’t begin to kick in for another five years. The Medicare Part D “doughnut hole” won’t be closed for 10 years. And there is no mechanism in place to prevent the private insurance companies that currently cover over half of the people in the country from raising premiums at will, and plenty of incentives for them to squeeze even more money out of us while they still can.

Worst of all, the bill does not rein in overall health care spending. Last week I met with Doug Elmendorf, the Director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. He confirmed that this bill would actually increase the amount of money we as a nation spend on health care, and increase the federal government’s share of what we as a nation spend on health care, over the next two decades. If we don’t reverse these trends, paying the insurance companies more than we should pay for the service that they provide will be the least of our worries.

Yesterday, Democrats decided to press foward on ObamaCare without GOP, killing any hope of a “bi-partisan” bill. Of course, the problem hasn’t been Republicans, and that has been reiterated by Rep. Jim Cooper, a Blue Dog Democrat from Tennessee:

Democrats will not be able to “go it alone” on healthcare legislation and force through a bill with a public option on a party-lines vote, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) said Wednesday.

“It’s numerically not possible,” Cooper, a centrist Blue Dog Democrat who has long focused on healthcare issues, said in an interview on MSNBC. “We don’t have enough votes.”

The New York Times reported Wednesday that Democratic leaders in Congress, along with the White House, had less faith in continuing to work with Republicans to craft a bipartisan health bill containing a public (or “government-run”) option.

Cooper said that just as a matter of procedure, there is no way that Democrats would be able to accomplish such a thing.

“It’s really not an ideological question; it’s a question of how you pass a bill,” he explained. “We don’t have 60 Democratic votes in the Senate.”

The problem for Democrats isn’t just with Blue Dogs, which “conservative” and moderate Democrats. Liberals are refusing to vote for a bill without a “public option.”

Stephen Vasil, a reader, attended Rep. Jim Marshall’s town hall meeting last night in Forsyth, Georgia. He was kind enough to send in his report of the event.

Jim Marshall held a town hall meeting this evening in Forsyth to discuss healthcare reform and current issues. Approximately five hundred concerned citizens were in attendance.

Marshall opened the meeting stating he opposed all five current healthcare reform bills in the Congress and Senate. He said, “American people don’t like the current healthcare system because of two bureaucrats.” The two bureaucrats that he alluded to were the government and health insurance companies.  He also offered that the current Veterans Administration health care system is effective because patient surveys in this government ran system have been proven to be twice as good as non-government ran hospital surveys. He added that this is “why we should not totally be against government regulated healthcare.”

When questioned about where he received this information by a meeting attendee, he ignored the question and quickly moved on to the next question. One attendee asked, “Will PAYGO eventually lead to rationing of healthcare services.” He replied, “No” and would not listen to this person’s next question.

Another question raised by the crowd was from a concerned physician, “If the finances were available, would you support any of the five healthcare reform bills”? Marshall replied, “No.”

Nearing the end of the meeting another citizen asked, “You have replied No, that you disagree with all of the current healthcare bills, but you have not told us what kind of bill you would support.” Marshall simply stated he would support any bill that would not increase the current debt of the country because that would not be a good steward of America’s money.”

At the end of the meeting I finally got the chance to ask the question that had been lingering in my head through the night. I asked, “Tonight, you have said you are a member of the Blue Dog Democrats, but you have proven to not be fiscally conservative by voting for HR 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and HR 1424, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, therefore you are liar and you need to apologize to all of these people here for lying to them about being concerned about America’s financial debt.”

As, you would expect, he responded very sternly that, “he has a strong character which he must uphold when answering this question and he does not appreciated being called a liar. He also said he does not need to apologize to anyone.” He then ranted and raved over the TARP bill and how he not only voted for the bill, but he strongly PUSHED for this bill to be passed.”

Throughout the night it was noticed by several attendees that he was very rude and short with almost every question asked. He talked to the citizens which he states he is working for like two year old peons. The crowd was distraught over the way he disrespected the citizens taking their time to express concerns.

In a nut-shell, I want someone in office who acts as though they are working to serve us and not someone who treats us like we don’t know what in the hell we are talking about. Then again, that is just my opinion.

A Florida member of the Blue Dog coalition says that Congress should scrap the health care reform plans it’s been working on for months and start from scratch:

PERRY, Florida (CNN) – Acknowledging his amazement at the crowds gathered to debate health care at his town halls, Rep. Allen Boyd, D-Florida, faced three large gatherings on Monday with many questioners voicing skepticism about the proposals being debated in Washington.

“Never have I had this attendance … that is a good thing,” Boyd said as he started his third event of the day.

Indiana Congressman Baron Hill won’t be hold any town hall meetings during the August recess:

“I’m trying to control the event,” Hill said, shortly before an informal discussion with a dozen business people at the Greater Bloomington Chamber of Commerce. “What I don’t want to do is create an opportunity for the people who are political terrorists to blow up the meeting and not try to answer thoughtful questions.”

Wow, and I thought calling them “Un-American” was bad.

News outlets are reporting that Blue Dog Democrats have reached a deal with Democratic Party leadership in the House to begin a mark-up of the bill in the House Energy and Commerce Committee in exchange for delaying a vote on the bill until after the August recess (that doesn’t make much sense because that was already likely).

If you haven’t called your representative and asked them to oppose this bill, now would be the time to do it.