United Liberty

It’s not easy being a Democrat elected to statewide office in a red state, especially when you’re known for helping an unpopular agenda. Just ask Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). According to a new poll released this morning by the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, Pryor’s favorability rating has plummeted and he trails his potential conservative opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) by 8 points.

Club for Growth Action, the free market group’s political action committee, began running an ad in Arkansas hitting Pryor for his support of President Barack Obama’s agenda, specifically mentioning ObamaCare, the stimulus, and Wall Street bailout. The ad says tells Arkansans that “when you vote for Pryor, you vote for Obama.”

A couple of weeks ago, over 40% of West Virginia Democrats made their disapproval of President Barack Obama known by casting their vote for Keith Judd, a convicted felon currently serving time in Texas. Democrats in Arkansas and Kentucky went to the polls yesterday, sending roughly the same message to Obama, notes Jamie Dupree:

Kentucky Democrats cast 42% for “Undecided” instead of the incumbent President of their own party, while in Arkansas, 41% of primary voters opted for an unknown Tennessee attorney named John Wolfe.

It wasn’t hard to see the big thumbs down that more rural voters in those states gave to the President, as over half of the 120 counties in Kentucky were carried by “Undecided” - 66 of 120.

The story line was much the same in Arkansas, as over two dozen counties went to Wolfe over the sitting President.

Most of the President’s advantage was in urban areas of both Kentucky and Arkansas - like Jefferson County (Louisville) and Fayette County (Lexington) where he won 82% and 76% of the vote - but in rural areas, there was a steady stream of voters who chose another option instead.

Dupree notes that these states weren’t likely to go to Obama anyway in the fall, so there may not be reason to cause a fuss over this. I disagree. During the Republican primary, Mitt Romney was viewed as a weak candidate because he couldn’t fight off “Flavor of the Month” candidates to his right. And while Obama will no doubt be the Democratic Party’s nominee, these results, much like protest votes against Romney, show the discontent over his job performance in his own party.

Last week, President Barack Obama was the subject of unwelcome news stories after a convicted felon received over 40% of the vote against him in the West Virginia Democratic Primary.

And while Gallup reported this week that Democrats are happier with their nominee than Republicans, tell that to John Wolfe, who may give Obama a run for his money next week in Arkansas:

You haven’t heard of John Wolfe because the obscure Democratic candidate for president has raised less than $500, can’t afford radio or TV ads and hasn’t gotten much press.

Yet miraculously, a poll released this week shows Wolfe trailing President Barack Obama in the Arkansas Democratic primary — occurring next week — by just seven points.

In an interview with The Daily Caller on Wednesday, Wolfe described his barebones campaign, saying he thinks the shocking poll numbers in Arkansas are the result of an anybody-but-Obama attitude. He’s optimistic he could pull off an upset.

“I think there’s a chance,” said Wolfe, who is the only person appearing on the Democratic ballot for president with Obama in Arkansas.
[…]
Wolfe said he’s campaigned mostly by handing out fliers, which he emails to supporters who copy and distribute them. The fliers have his office and cell phone number on them.

Tax Hike Mike Huckabee announced on his Fox News show this evening that he will not seek the Republican nomination for president. The announcement ended days of speculation and mixed messages from those close to the former Arkansas governor, including staffers and advisors from his 2008 bid.

Huckabee, who has been criticized by fiscal conservatives for his big spending, big government and tax hiking policies during his time in Arkansas, had been among the top-tier in polling among Republican candidates; neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney.

Who benefits the most? Since much of Huckabee’s support comes from social conservatives, look for Rick Santorum to up the rhetoric in the coming days; though others will as well. Tax Hike Mike’s populist approach and support for the FairTax will also boast other soundbite candidates, such as Herman Cain.

Personally, it’s one less cult of personality we’ll have to deal with during the campaign; though others seem poised to take his place. Huckabee not running means there is one less statist is in the mix. I’m OK with that.

While visiting with Judge Andrew Napolitano on Freedom Watch this past weekend, Mike Huckabee, a potential GOP candidate for president in 2012, took issue with libertarians and free marketers over his record, saying, “If a libertarian thinks he’s a better Republican and calls people like me a RINO or a liberal, I have a real problem with that.”

Here is the segment:

While many are fans of Huckabee because of his support of the “Fair Tax,” there is little question that he is a fiscal liberal. During his tenure as Governor of Arkansas, Huckabee gave residents of the state a net tax hike of over $505 million to finance his big government agenda. His record on taxes is worse than Bill Clinton.

Speaking of earmarks, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AK), who is the walking dead in a political sense, is trying to save her career by banking on taxpayer money:

Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is down 20 points in the polls, but the Democrat is apparently going to go down swinging—with $1.5 billion of your money. She is the spending problem, in profile.

Last year heavy rain damaged cotton and rice crops across the South. The 2008 farm bill, passed by a Democratic Congress, created the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE) to aid farmers hit by such weather-related disasters. The admirable intent was to stop farm-state Senators from looting the Treasury after every early frost or the like. To qualify for SURE funds, farmers are now required to buy crop insurance (federally subsidized to the tune of about $6 billion a year) and to have lost more than 30% of their crop value.

Mrs. Lincoln wants to pull an end run around this law and make Arkansas farmers eligible for retroactive taxpayer payments. The payments would be made even if the recipients didn’t buy crop insurance and even if their damages were as little as 5%. Most small businesses in America suffered far more than a 5% fall in revenues during the recession, but few are getting six-figure handouts from Uncle Sam. Rice and cotton prices have recovered nicely this year in any event.

The latest poll out of Arkansas shows disaster for Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Democrats, as it appears all but certain, with a gap of 38 points to make up, that she’ll lose to Rep. John Boozman (R).

Rasmussen: Arkansas Senate Election

• Boozman: 65%
• Lincoln: 27%
• Other: 4%
• Not sure: 3%

Boozman has increased his lead from last month where he lead by 25 points. The Real Clear Politics average for this race shows Boozman at +28.2.

So, what is dragging down Lincoln? This line out of the poll should answer it: “Just 31% approve of the job President Obama is doing. Sixty-nine percent (69%) disapprove.” Lincoln also is viewed as a liberal by a majority of voters and her views are viewed as “extreme” by a plurality.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

House of Representatives

With Republicans expected to make gains, anywhere from 25 seats to taking control of the House (40+ seats), we thought we’d put together a list of the more competitive races, so you can get an idea of who is in trouble.

Below is a list of the 92 most competitive House seats. We used Rothenberg Political Report and Real Clear Politics to determine what races should be listed.

We’ll link polling as they come available.

In an effort to keep you up to date on the upcoming mid-term elections, we’ve put together a list of the most vulnerable seats in Congress. This page contains the seats up for election in the United States Senate. Click here to view vulnerable or toss-up seats in the House of Representatives.

You can click on the state to view recent polling. Candidates listed in italics are incumbents, otherwise the candidate listed is in the incumbent party. The opponent listed has either been nominated or is expected to be nominated, otherwise we’ve listed the primary dates (we’ll add the nominee later).

And finally is where the seat is expected to go on November 2nd.

Keep checking this page for updates.

United States Senate

Republicans are expected to do well in the House of Representatives (you can view House races below) with current projections showing control of that chamber up for grabs. The Senate has been overlooked, for the most part. Though prospects for a Republican takeover are unlikely, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Democrats currently hold 59 seats in the Senate, including two independents that caucus with them. Republicans hold 41 seats. There are 37 seats up for grabs this year, of those 17 are competitive.

The first table shows the competitive seats, races that pollsters and analysts generally consider to be worth watching or seats that there is an expected switch in party control.

Competitive Senate Races