2012 GOP nomination

WaPo/ABC poll: Romney still holds advantage in GOP race

While Michele Bachmann has certainly picked up steam in the race for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney is still holds a double-digit lead over her in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Here’s how it shapes up:

  • Mitt Romney: 26%
  • Sarah Palin: 16%
  • Michele Bachmann: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 9%

But like many of the polls we’ve seen over the last several weeks, they tested the Republican field with and without Sarah Palin. The first set is without her running and with Rick Perry’s likely candidacy.

  • Mitt Romney: 30%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Ron Paul: 11%
  • Rick Perry: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 6%
  • Jon Huntsman:3%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

This second set includes Palin, but leaves off Perry:

  • Mitt Romney: 28%
  • Sarah Palin: 19%
  • Michele Bachmann: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 10%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Newt Gingrich: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • NOTA/Wouldn’t vote/No opinion: 11%

The poll shows strong numbers in terms support for Romney, but it also has points of concern for his campaign as noted in the Washington Post’s report on the poll:

Romney, Bachmann remain in the front of the GOP field

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann continues to gain on, and in at least one instance surpass, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in national polling, which is largely useless given that we’re dealing with state caucuses and primaries to determine delegates for presidential candidates. However, these polls do offer us, as I’ve noted before, a sense of where Republican voters are right now.

The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Romney still leading, but Bachmann picking up more support since their last poll:

  • Mitt Romney: 30%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Rick Perry: 11%
  • Ron Paul: 9%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 2%

Cain has dropped off substantially from the last NBC/WSJ poll; he was at 12% and is now at 5%. They also left Sarah Palin out of this poll, it’s like her support gets divided between Bachmann and Perry.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, also polled the race recently under two scenarios; with and without the presence of Sarah Palin.

Here is how the race shapes up with Palin:

  • Mitt Romney: 20%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Sarah Palin: 12%
  • Rick Perry: 11%
  • Herman Cain: 10%
  • Ron Paul: 9%
  • Newt Gingrich: 6%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Other/Undecided: 10%

And without Palin:

Another poll in Iowa shows Bachmann leading, national viability remains a big question

While I’m not convinced Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s biggest threat to the Republican nomination, she continues to show that she may steal the show in Iowa. According to yet another poll out of the Hawkeye State - this one conducted by American Research Group, Bachmann leads Romney by a small margin among likely caucus-goers.

  • Michele Bachmann: 21%
  • Mitt Romney: 18%
  • Ron Paul: 14%
  • Sarah Palin: 11%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Rick Santorum: 5%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty:
  • Other: 2:
  • Undecided: 10%

The poll also notes:

Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among registered Republicans. Bachmann leads Romney 25% to 17% among those saying they will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican caucus. And Bachmann leads Romney 30% to 7% among those saying they are supporters of the Tea Party.

Ron Paul leads Romney 24% to 23% among no party (independent) voters, with Sarah Palin at 15% and Bachmann at 2%. Paul leads Romney 22% to 20% among probable caucus goers, with Bachmann at 14% and Palin at 12%.

Romney leads Bachmann 31% to 11% among likely caucus goers saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac shows Bachmann picking up steam as well, though that doesn’t come a surprise. We haven’t paid much attention to national polls lately, but given how the field is shaping up, here is a look at how Republican voters are going.

Bachmann pulls ahead in Iowa

At the end of last month, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Iowa. But a new poll from the Des Moines Register shows Bachmann with a slight lead - though still within the margin of error, a month ahead of the Ames Straw Poll.

  • Michele Bachmann: 25%
  • Mitt Romney: 21%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 9%
  • Herman Cain: 9%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%

The poll shows that 76% of Republicans in Iowa have a favorable view of Bachmann, 66% are favorable of Romney. Gingrich, however, doesn’t fare so well as 52% have an unfavorable view of him; by far the worst in the poll.

Pawlenty, who is viewed favorably by 60% of Iowa Republicans, saw a bump from the last poll. This state is where many observers feel he has to make a stand in order to even stay in the race. That’s likely why he lobbed a shots against Bachmann over the weekend, noting that she has no real record of accomplishment.

This isn’t important just because Pawlenty is knocking a rival, but also because if Bachmann can’t pull ahead of Romney, she may decide to run for re-election in what has been a fairly competitive district. Those comments could become fodder by a Democratic opponent.

Brit Hume: Michele Bachmann too toxic to independents

While purusing Twitter yesterday, I came across video of Brit Hume on The O’Reilly Factor pointing out that Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who is running for the GOP nomination, “would prove too toxic to independents much like Sarah Palin did. They would think she is just too much.”

Over at Gateway Pundit, Jim Hoft calls Hume’s comments a “slam” and writes, “Too conservative = Too Toxic.” Eh, it wasn’t a “slam,” it was an legitimate observation; one I made myself yesterday. Like it or not, it’s true. Bachmann is gaffe prone, and that’s not a tendency you want on the campaign trial; especially when the control of both chambers of Congress are up in the air.

There plenty of things not to like about other candidates, but if the GOP nominates Michele Bachmann, Barack Obama will be re-elected.

Bachmann goes on the air in Iowa

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is the second Republican to run ads in Iowa (Tim Pawlenty was the first), a month before the Ames Straw Poll, arguably the most important event for any of the presidential candidates hoping to show themselves to be a real contender for the nomination.

Given that the big topic right now is the budget and national debt, Bachmann makes it clear that she will not support an increase and highlighted her opposition to the stimulus bill and TARP bailout:

Rand Paul heads to Iowa for Ron Paul

It’s not a surprise to see Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) headed to Iowa to stump for his dad, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who is seeking the GOP presidential nomination:

Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky will head to the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa later this month to campaign for his father’s bid for the White House.

The younger Paul’s Iowa swing will come just before the Ames, Iowa, straw poll. GOP Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third run for the presidency, is putting a lot of money and effort into doing well in the crucial straw poll.

This is the first time Rand Paul will campaign for his father since Ron Paul formally announced his run for president May 13. But the senator did stump for his father during swings through Iowa and New Hampshire, the first in the nation primary state, earlier this year before the elder Paul announced his candidacy.
[…]
The Paul presidential campaign told CNN the two men will not appear together during Rand Paul’s events in Iowa. The elder Paul is holding campaign events in Marshalltown and Cedar Falls, Iowa Wednesday.

“Rand Paul’s message strikes a strong chord with the Tea Party here in Iowa,” said Drew Ivers, Ron Paul’s Iowa chairman, in a statement. “His message of stopping out of control federal spending is exactly what the Republican party needs at this time.”

Polls out of Iowa show Dr. Paul pulling anywhere between 6% to 8% of the primary vote, around middle of the pack in the state. His campaign recently managed to secure the best booth at the Ames Straw Poll, which will be held next month.

Romney still on top in New Hampshire, Bachmann gaining

Two new polls out of New Hampshire show a tightening race between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who is now being seen as the anti-Romney in the race for the GOP nomination.

The tightening that I referenced isn’t seen on the surface in the poll from the University of New Hampshire; however, Bachmann polled at 4% in the Granite State last month, so she is up 8 points. Romney fell off 6 points, from 41% since last month.

  • Mitt Romney: 35%
  • Michele Bachmann: 12%
  • Ron Paul: 7%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 7%
  • Rick Perry: 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 3%
  • Sarah Palin: 3%
  • Herman Cain: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Newt Gingrich: 1%
  • Gary Johnson: 1%
  • Other: 2%
  • Undecided: 19%

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based Democratic polling firm, shows the gap between Romney and Bachmann now down to a single-digits; the closest any GOP competitor has been in the state.

CNN shows Giuliani as a contender

On the heels of the recent Gallup poll in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, CNN put out numbers on Friday showing a different dynamic in the race; Rudy Giuliani, who is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney:

  • Rudy Giuliani: 16%
  • Mitt Romney: 15%
  • Sarah Palin: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 12%
  • Herman Cain: 10%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Michele Bachmann: 7%
  • Tim Pawlenty: 5%
  • Rick Santorum: 2%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Gary Johnson: 1%
  • Buddy Roemer: n/a
  • Someone else: 3%
  • None/No one: 5%
  • No opinion: 2%

Here is the field without Giuliani:

  • Romney: 19%
  • Palin: 15%
  • Paul: 13%
  • Cain: 11%
  • Gingrich: 11%
  • Bachmann: 7%
  • Pawlenty: 5%
  • Huntsman: 3%
  • Santorum: 2%
  • Johnson: 2%
  • Roemer: 1%
  • Someone else: 3%
  • None/No one: 6%
  • No opinion: 2%

And without Giuliani and Palin:

  • Romney: 21%
  • Paul: 15%
  • Cain: 13%
  • Gingrich: 12%
  • Bachmann: 9%
  • Pawlenty: 5%
  • Huntsman: 3%
  • Santorum: 3%
  • Johnson: 2%
  • Roemer: 1%
  • Someone else: 5%
  • None/No one: 9%
  • No opinion: 2%

Assuming Giuliani doesn’t run, Romney is still the frontrunner. However, Paul is making an impressive showing in these early polls. It’ll be interesting to see if he runs a similar strategy of picking up enough second and third place finishes in early primary states to earn enough delegates to be contender. It’s likely that Palin or Giuliani enter the race, but probably not both.

Podcast: $14 Trillion National Debt, Raising the Debt Ceiling, and 2012 GOP Contenders for the Presidential Nomination

On Saturday, Jason, Brett, Doug, and Mike sat down to record a podcast to “celebrate” passing the “milestone” national debt figure of $14 trilliion.  After discussing the national debt, they cover the upcoming vote to raise the debt ceiling and the presumptive contenders for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination.

To listen to the podcast, click here.  To download, right-click and “save link as…”

 
 


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