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In case you missed it, the presidential primaries are over

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UPDATE: Trump has officially clinched the Republican nomination as of today.

It seems like it took five gruelling, facepalm-inducing years, but it was blink-and-miss-it news that the major party presidential primaries came to an all-but-official close this week. The result that we all predicted and dreaded six months ago: Trump vs Clinton vs …?

Although Bernie Sanders has not yet ended or suspended his campaign, the Democratic primary came to an arrangement this week that serves the same purpose. Hillary is less than 100 delegates away from clinching the nomination, and she seems content to coasting to victory.

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That victory will officially take place with California, New Jersey, and the final round of state primaries next month. In the meantime, the Clinton campaign has shifted ad spending from the primary battle to the general election, now focusing on Donald Trump’s lifelong parade of horribles.

Reforms, not Bailout or Bankruptcy, Prevail in Puerto Rico Legislation

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After a long public debate over what Congress should do to address the current debt and financial crisis in Puerto Rico, free market oriented reforms have won the day. While the government of the Commonwealth requested, and our Obama Administration supported, Chapter 9 bankruptcy, many Republicans in Congress and grass-roots citizen groups opposed that and argued for reforms in Puerto Rico instead. The legislation released in Congress clearly is on the side of reform and doesn’t include or enable bankruptcy.

The Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), introduced by Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI) as well as Reps. Rob Bishop (R-UT) and Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) will create an Oversight Board to assist the Commonwealth in enacting reforms and reign in their out of control welfare state as well as managing their debts. The legislation does not contain any bailout provision nor does it provide for or allow Chapter 9 bankruptcy. PROMESA will bring order to the chaos in Puerto Rico, prevent a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, and will build a foundation for prosperity in the Commonwealth, and ensure its access to capital markets.

Puerto Rico has accumulated more than $118 billion in debt from bonds and unfunded pension liabilities. The government has been unable to manage this debt and has already begun defaulting on its repayment. On July 1, the Commonwealth is likely to default on an additional $2 billion in debt that includes $800 million of constitutionally backed debt.

You’ll never guess who’s tied with Hillary among independent voters

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As the everlasting presidential primaries give way to the possibly even more grueling general election, polls take on a new irrelevance, and coincidentally a new furious pace. Now that pollsters don’t have to ask about two different races with a dozen different candidates in any number of primary states, they can ask about the all-but-certain general election contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump more often.

In the latest of these polls, Morning Consult finds Clinton leading Trump by just 2 points, 42 to 40.

The consensus just a month ago was that Hillary would soundly defeat Trump in November; Trump’s alienating of everyone from women to disabled people was unsustainable. But polls already show the race closing to a statistical tie, just in the last week.

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It’s going to be a long five months.

As I’ve implored, third party candidates should also be included in these general election polls. There are going to be more than two options on everyone’s ballot in November, so it does little good to make people choose between only two options in polls designed to show the state of that election.

Fortunately, the Morning Consult poll does just that and includes likely Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson along with Trump and Clinton. With all three options, they still find a Clinton lead, but by 3 points instead of 2.

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