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Treasury

The Treasury, the Fed, and Gold

Last week, two experts on the Treasury and the Fed gave a very interesting talk about the two entities’ balance sheets. This is especially timely as the President is talking about applying the “leftover” TARP money to a new stimulus venture, and the Treasury is about to vote federal employees an unconscionable pay raise.

This conference was sponsored by the Cleveland-Marshall Libertarians and the Cleveland-Marshall Federalist Society and was called “U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Going Exponential.”

graphJust to give you a taste, the following are excerpts from a good review by Kevin Lovach, the Co-Editor in Chief of The Gavel, CSU Ohio:

“[Walker] Todd is a former C-M professor who served as an officer of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and New York. He joined Case Western Reserve University Professor Emeritus William Pierce in analyzing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and federal deficit spending. Pierce served previously as Chair of the Case Economics Department.

“Stressing his view that the problems stem from Washington, D.C. and the banking-heavy northeast, Todd said ‘the existing Federal Reserve leadership needs to be booted out.’ He quipped, ‘I’d like to see the Board of Governors hanged first, the New York Fed hanged second, Boston hanged third.’

“Pierce put federal deficit spending for the 2009 fiscal year at 9.9-percent, a figure topped only by spending during and immediately after World War II. He argued that while the economy can handle deficits of three-percent of gross domestic product ‘forever,’ anything substantially higher ‘becomes real money.’”

The Stress Test: Inspecting the Stable After the Horses Have Gone

Even if it’s too late, it’s good to know that the US Treasury, other Government agencies, and the Federal Reserve are able to do what they were supposed to do all along, i.e. monitor the health of the US banking system. This Federal Reserve white paper amply demonstrates their know-how by detailing the accounting verification procedures they applied in their infamous “stress test” of 19 major US banks, the results of which they now hesitate to divulge to the public for fear of instigating another wave of panic.

Government Intervention Run Amuck: Bank Intervention

My list of examples of the unintended consequences of government intervention in the marketplace gets longer and longer. This time, I’m going to point out the latest irony: Investment banking’s profitable last quarter.

This would be wonderful news if it were genuine, but looking a little deeper reveals the truth. First, in one of Barron’s feature articles by Andrew Bary, we learn about a little-discussed fact: Goldman Sachs has only been able to issue low-cost debt due to the backing of the FDIC through a program called the TLGP, or Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.

PPIP: The Right Medicine?

These tense times need comic relief.

ppip


Fed Credit: The Latest and Perhaps Next-To-Last Bubble

I can’t claim to be the origin of the Fed Credit Bubble idea, because it occurred to me as I read a fantastic piece by one of my favorite analysts, Doug Noland of Prudent Bear.

We’ve just come out of a huge bubble that consisted of inflated real estate investment and speculative finance credit. The bubble burst and the market began to correct itself, menacing to take a lot of nations’ economies with it.

Cutting Taxes = Increasing Revenue

Around 150 BC, Emperor Ching Ti came to power in China and immediately faced a major problem: his treasury was empty.

Taxes were very high, but no real revenue was coming in. That’s because the system of taxes at that time was an early form of income tax that centered on the government taking a large percentage of a farmer’s crops.

So Ching Ti did something bold and innovative: he cut taxes.

Overnight, taxes went from over 50% down to about 3%. Farmers, who had fled to the hills to escape draconian tax rates, now came home and began farming again. To make a long story short, Ching Ti’s greatest problem while governing was trying to keep all the grain in his barns from spoiling.

It seems that ancient Chinese history is good for more than just cutesy script on a fortune cookie.

What is America Becoming?

A few months ago, I was temporarily immersed in the recent history of Eastern Europe. I was devouring Ayn Rand’s We the Living, Michael G. Roskin’s The Rebirth of East Europe and Joe Sacco’s Safe Area Gorazde.

Say Goodbye to the American Dream

Most of us have seen the passionate speech given by George Baily in It’s a Wonderful Life to the evil bank-owner, Mr. Potter, begging for leniency towards Potter’s delinquent homeowners and espousing why owning a home makes the residents of Bedford Falls better citizens and more productive members of society.

Mr. Potter is simply interested in making sure his payments are received on time and that foreclosures are issued to those who fall behind.  He believes, and rightly so, that if a man has overextended himself and cannot pay his bills, the mortgage owner has the right to claim the house and boot the residents out.

George Baily, however, is more interested in promoting the “American Dream”- home ownership- and has built his life and Savings and Loan business around helping families buy homes… even if they’re not quite ready to take on that financial responsibility.

Treasury releases financial report for government

The Treasury has released the 2009 Financial Report Of The U.S. Government, which is full of facts, charts and figures on the fiscal health of the country. Let me tell you, if you even have the slightest understand of basic economics, this report should trouble you.

I’ve pulled a couple of the charts to give you an idea of how screwed we really are. Let me be clear in saying that I am not blaming this on the current administration. They are, however, doing nothing to deal with the problem. In fact, they are doing what previous administrations have done…building on past fiscal irresponsibility with more fiscal irresponsibility.

This first graph shows that without major policy changes, debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 200% in the next 35 years. It gets even worse as you can see below. Part of the reason is demonstrated in the next chart.

debt

As you can see here (click to enlarge for better detail), interest on the national debt becomes more of a problem than entitlements, which is what many fiscal conservatives often talk about. This is a financial burden that cannot be solved by simply raising taxes, because with that economic growth is put at risk.

Over the last few decades, annual government spending as a percentage of GDP has been around 20%. However, In the next 20 years, spending as a percentage of GDP will hit 30% and it will just continue to grow.

It’s not just deficits we need to worry about

During the debate over health care, stimulus programs and generally more government spending, it’s easy to overlook the long-term economic issues. CNN Money highlights the fiscal issues presented by Medicare and Social Security, though not the long-term unfunded liabilities, and the cost of bailouts that are ticking time bombs for the country:

The first is the debt held by the public. That’s money owed to those who have bought U.S. Treasurys, most notably big bond mutual funds and foreign governments. Debt held by the public today is roughly $8 trillion and rising.

The second number is the money the federal government owes to government trust funds, such as those for Medicare and Social Security. The government has used revenue collected for those programs to cover other outlays. Currently, the debt to the trust funds is approaching $5 trillion.

The two combined is the total gross debt that’s accounted for. But deficit hawks also worry about what’s not on the books.
[…]
“Our budget doesn’t have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on it, even though it’s owned lock, stock and barrel by the American taxpayer,” said Rudolph Penner, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) during a conference held by the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform.

Last year, the CBO did start to account for both companies as if they were federal agencies on the budget. But the White House Budget Office only includes some potential costs because the future of the two companies is still under consideration. Last week, a Republican congressman introduced a bill that would require the two agencies be put on the budget.

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