NY-23: Siena College Poll Shows Hoffman Leading
On the eve of Election Day, Conservative Doug Hoffman has opened up a five point lead over Democrat Bill Owens in the race for the 23rd Congressional District. Republican Assembly member Dede Scozzafava still gets six percent support, but since her decision to suspend her campaign and support Owens, the number of undecided voters has doubled from nine percent to 18 percent, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters.
”Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.”
“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race,” Greenberg said. “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”
Honestly, this poll would seem to be a more accurate reflection of what’s going on than the Public Policy Polling poll that came out over the weekend, mostly because the results of the PPP poll are clearly muddled by the fact that it was conducted both before, during, and after Scozzafava’s withdrawal and endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens.