Recapping Super Tuesday

If you’re like me, you went to bed before the Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota results started to tricke in. It wasn’t hard to see at that point that last night was a good night for Mitt Romney, though he didn’t deliver the “knock out” punch to end the race quickly. We’re probably going to see this thing drag out between he and Rick Santorum for at least the rest of this month.

Had Romney won in Tennessee, it would be a different story. However, exit polls showed that socially conservative voters came out pretty strong in that state. Additionally, Romney’s win in Ohio was very close. So while he may get to claim the state and it certainly helps with momentum, it shows that he is still just getting by.

Santorum is going to keep trucking. As he said last night, he won a few states and got “silver medals” in others. His biggest issue is money. While his team says they’re willing to take the race all the way to Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, he may not have the resources to get that far.

Of course, Santorum’s biggest obstacle isn’t Romney, it’s Gingrich. Conventional wisdom says that if Gingrich drops out that Santorum will be the beneficiary. That’s probably true, but only to a certain extent. Gingrich was defiant last night, but the writing is on the wall. He’s not going to win, especially after five last place finishes. Yes, he won Georgia, but he didn’t get the 50% needed to take all of his home state’s delegates.

Ron Paul’s strategy of focusing on caucus states hasn’t panned out the way his campaign had hoped. Granted, Paul was strong in several states last night, but he still doesn’t have a win in either a caucus or a primary. But as we’ve said before, Paul’s support has grown substantially since his run four years ago and he can no longer be ignored by Republicans.

The normal rules don’t apply to Paul. He wants a speaking spot at the convention, and he may well get it if he keeps trucking along in the race and picking off delegates. But the fact of the matter is that Ron Paul won’t win the nomination.

If case you missed them, here are the results from Super Tuesday. I haven’t included the delegate count because I’m not sure how accurate they are, but if you click on the link to the state, you can see CNN’s estimates.

Alaska

  • Romney: 32%
  • Santorum: 29%
  • Paul: 24%
  • Gingrich: 14%

Georgia

  • Gingrich: 47%
  • Romney: 26%
  • Santorum: 20%
  • Paul: 6%

Idaho

  • Romney: 62%
  • Santorum: 18%
  • Paul: 18%
  • Gingrich: 2%

Massachusetts

  • Romney: 72%
  • Santorum: 12%
  • Paul: 10%
  • Gingrich: 5%

North Dakota

  • Santorum: 40%
  • Paul: 28%
  • Romney: 24%
  • Gingrich: 8%

Ohio

  • Romney: 38%
  • Santorum: 37%
  • Gingrich: 15%
  • Paul: 9%

Oklahoma

  • Santorum: 34%
  • Romney: 28%
  • Gingrich: 27%
  • Paul: 10%

Tennessee

  • Santorum: 37%
  • Romney: 28%
  • Gingrich: 24%
  • Paul: 9%

Vermont

  • Romney: 40%
  • Paul: 25%
  • Santorum: 24%
  • Gingrich:  8%

Virginia

  • Romney: 60%
  • Paul: 40%


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