Romney poised for a big win in Florida

We’ve got another round of polling out of Florida showing that Mitt Romney is poised for a big win. Just a week ago it seemed that momentum was in Newt Gingrich’s corner, but two bad debate performances and a couple of gaffes, including one that brought Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) out of his isolation to stick up for Romney, badly hurt him.

Here’s a look at the latest polling going back to those that were released at the beginning of last week. these show the dramatic swing from Gingrich to Romney in just a few days time.

Poll Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul
Rasmussen Reports (1/28) 28% 44% 12% 10%
Public Policy Polling (1/28) 32% 40% 15% 9%
NBC News/Marist (1/24-1/26) 27% 42% 16% 11%
Miami Herald/Mason Dixon (1/25-1/26) 31% 42% 14% 6%
Sunshine State News (1/24-1/26) 31% 40% 12% 9%
Quinnipiac (1/24-1/26) 29% 38% 12% 14%
Rasmussen Reports (1/25) 31% 39% 12% 9%
SurveyUSA (1/25) 32% 39% 11% 8%
Insider Advantage (1/25) 32% 40% 8% 9%
CNN/Time (1/22-1/24) 34% 36% 11% 9%
Florida Chamber (1/22-1/23) 33% 33% 10% 6%
Public Policy Polling (1/22-1/23) 38% 33% 13% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (1/22) 41% 32% 11% 8%
Insider Advantage (1/22) 34% 26% 11% 13%
Quinnipiac (1/19-1/23) 34% 36% 13% 10%

Again, this the polling that has been released in just the last week. As we’ve noted before, the swings in the race have been enough to give you whiplash. Gingrich’s big win in South Carolina was enough to give him a surge in Florida thanks to a rallying of conservatives, many of whom rejected the idea that Romney’s nomination was “inevitable.”

You’ll notice that Rick Santorum has benefitted from his debate performance on Thursday evening, when he had Romney on his heels when it came to ObamaCare, which was modeled on RomneyCare. However, Santorum’s slight bump isn’t enough to push him anywhere near the lead.

Gingrich will push forward to Super Tuesday, where he will likely do well. It will be difficult for his campaign to spin a loss in Florida, but he’ll have close to a month to restratigize and regain his footing. That still may not be enough to turn the tide unless Santorum drops out of the race as more Republicans are coming over to Romney, who they believe has the best shot to beat Barack Obama in the fall.


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