United Liberty

We have yet another new poll out of Iowa today showing that the Rick Santorum surge is for real; at least right now. The poll, released by NBC, echoes others polls released this week by CNN and Rasmussen that show Santorum moving into third place overall. However, the NBC poll also shows Gingrich dropping to fifth.

• Mitt Romney: 23%
• Ron Paul: 21%
• Rick Santorum: 15%
• Rick Perry: 14%
• Newt Gingrich: 13%
• Michele Bachmann: 6%

Gingrich’s drop was aided by a substantial number of attack ads being run against by by super PACs and other campaigns. Perry has also seen a window of opportunity in recent days and attacking Santorum’s abysmal fiscal record, including his use of earmarks. Santorum’s defense is terrible.

The strangest development out of the state today is that Ron Paul will take this weekend off from the campaign trail to spend with his wife. With the caucus just a few days away, many observers are questioning the wisdom of such a move when public appearances to rally supporters are important. With that said, Paul does have a dedicated base of supporters that will no doubt continue working hard, but it helps to have the candidate there actively campaigning.

With Bachmann expected to finish last, she’ll will no doubt face pressure from conservatives to get out of the race. She can’t run for president and her congressional seat, so I would be surprised if she didn’t drop after the caucus.

Honestly, the way this nominating cycle has progress, I have no idea what to expect on Tuesday. So need less to say, you won’t see me making predictions.