United Liberty

The race for the Republican presidential nomination is beginning to get interesting as the gap in the polls between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney begins to close, according to the latest numbers from Gallup.

• Rick Perry: 31%
• Mitt Romney: 24%
• Ron Paul: 13%
• Michele Bachmann: 5%
• Newt Gingrich: 5%
• Herman Cain: 5%
• Rick Santorum: 2%
• Jon Huntsman: 1%
• Other: 4%
• No opinion: 10%

Perry did pick up two points from last the Gallup survey in the race. But Romney gained substantially, jumping from 17% to 24% in just a few weeks. While he’s still in third overall, Ron Paul is held steady. Michele Bachmann, continuing the trend irrelevance in the race, fell sharply from 10% in late August to 5%.

It’s bad news for Perry because he is beginning to fall back to earth. Moreover, Perry lost ground in a potential head-to-head matchup with President Barack Obama (he was tied last month) while Romney remained steady.

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

• Obama: 50%
• Perry: 45%
• Other: 3%
• No opinion: 2%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

• Obama: 47%
• Romney: 49%
• Other: 3%
• No opinion: 1%

Rasmussen latest poll in the race has similar findings. Romney has gained substantial ground over the last few weeks and is now just four points behind Perry, who held a double digit lead in mid-August.

• Rick Perry: 28%
• Mitt Romney: 24%
• Newt Gingrich: 9%
• Michele Bachmann: 8%
• Herman Cain: 7%
• Ron Paul: 6%
• Rick Santorum: 3%
• Jon Huntsman: 2%
• Thad McCotter: 1%
• Undecided: 11%

The latest polling out of individual states shows Perry with a 16 point lead in Missouri; however, he has a three point lead over Romney in South Carolina, an important early primary state for Republican contenders. A Public Policy Polling survey at the end of August showed Perry running away with Republicans in the Palmetto State.

August belonged to Perry, no one can take that away from him. But Perry has a long way to go to lock up the nomination and showing that he won’t marginalize himself, as Charlie Cook explains:

[T]he key is to watch Perry and to get a sense of his capacity to turn the corner from being a Texas candidate to being one who can compete effectively in the dozen or so battleground states that will determine this election. Most normal, well-adjusted voters are hardly paying attention to the race at this stage; only the junkies are really focused. Perry has made, and will make, more mistakes. The question is whether he learns and grows from them. Trial and error is a fantastic teacher, assuming one recognizes and learns from the errors. It’s more about learning how to say things: showing more judiciousness, contemplating the consequences of saying things one way versus another. If he learns, if he can effectively make the turn from being a successful practitioner in a one-party state to being an effective candidate in a much more ideologically diverse state, the nomination is his.

Perry will have a chance on Thursday to show that he is prepared to be more than the conservative movement’s “Flavor of the Month” by giving details about ideas he has to deal with the sluggish economy. Like it or not, conservatives, this election will be won on the economy, not wedge issues. Perry has to do more than appeal to some in the GOP and he has to do more than run an anti-Obama campaign.