Three new national polls in the race for the GOP nomination

Wed, 09/07/2011 - 7:20am | posted by Jason Pye

As we head into tonight’s debate at the Reagan Library in California, the first since Rick Perry joined the field, we have three polls to go through since so much has come out in the last few days. This is probably too much for one post, but it’s probably best to lay it out all at once instead of three separate posts.

With this also, the only commentary I’ll offer is just to say that the race is now a two-man race between Perry and Romney. That’s not to say that other candidates aren’t deserving of attention or respect, especially since a couple of them will continue to help drive the narrative over the course of the primary. But the numbers don’t lie.

We’ll start with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which is good news for Perry and bad for Romney; who trials by 15 points:

Rick Perry: 38%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Ron Paul: 9%
Michele Bachmann: 8%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Herman Cain: 5%
Rick Santorum: 3%
Jon Huntsman: 2%
None/Not sure: 7%

And while President Barack Obama is taking heat for the economy, he still leads in pospective head-to-head matchups against both Romney and Rick Perry. Here are those numbers:

Barack Obama v. Rick Perry

Obama: 47%
Perry: 42%
Neither/other: 4%
Unsure: 5%

Barack Obama v. Mitt Romney

Obama: 46%
Romney: 45%
Neither/other: 4%
Unsure: 3%

The numbers in Politico’s latest poll are similar, but show an even wider gap - 21 points - between Perry and Romney:

Rick Perry: 38%
Mitt Romney: 17%
Ron Paul: 10%
Michele Bachmann: 10%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Rick Santorum: 5%
Herman Cain: 4%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Other: 1%
Unsure: 11%

There is a warning here for Sarah Palin as she decides whether or not to run for the GOP nomination. According to the poll, which I’m sure she’ll dismiss, 61% of voters have an unfavorable view of her. Needless to say, Palin is unelectable.

The Washington Post/ABC News poll seems to be an anomaly. As you can see, Perry still holds a lead for in the race, but Romney has narrowed the gap.