GOP Presidential Power Rankings

We’ve got a shake up in the power rankings this week. With all the polls that have come out in the last week showing Rick Perry really on the way up and Mitt Romney falling back, it doesn’t make much sense keep Romney at the top of the pack. There are different scenarios being talked about now due to the GOP primary calendar still not entirely into place. With that said, a new AP shows that more Republicans are satisfied with the field of candidates and it’s becoming clearer that should Sarah Palin run and win the nomination, that it would be nothing short of a disaster for the GOP.

Rick Perry (up): I hinted last week that it was only a matter of time before Perry overtook Romney in our weekly update. In addition to the Rasmussen poll released nearly two weeks ago showing Perry with a double-digit lead in the race for the GOP nomination, Gallup and Public Policy Polling have released numbers showing similar results. Perry is the frontrunner at this point. If he keeps this momentum and wins Iowa and South Carolina early next year, Perry will be the likely nominee.

Mitt Romney (down): For what it’s worth, Romney can still boast that he is the GOP candidate that would do the best against President Barack Obama. But Romney isn’t trusted by the GOP base, and he has no one to blame for that but himself. His path to the nomination doesn’t look likely at the moment.

Ron Paul (up): Paul moves up this week after overtaking Bachmann in the last week’s Gallup poll, both in the survey of the GOP field and in head-to-head matchups against Obama. Rasmussen also found Paul competitive against Obama. It’s difficult to deny, as much as many Republicans may try, to say that Paul isn’t gaining support as we progress into the primaries. But as I said last week, if you put Bachmann in the top-tier, Paul has to be there as well since he is right there with her.

Michele Bachmann (down): She’s still coming in third or fourth in polls, but Bachmann doesn’t have near the draw that she had and the media attention on her campaign has plummeted significantly.

Newt Gingrich: (down): American Solutions, Gingrich’s 527 organization, went bankrupt and closed its doors last week. Gingrich has come across disinterested during the course of his campaign and then, of course, you have his disasterous May where he criticized Rep. Paul Ryan and backed a form of the individual mandate. Gingrich never recovered. At this point, we’d be better off making bets on when his campaign will end rather than his chances of getting the GOP nomination.

Herman Cain (up): Cain won a couple of straw polls recently, including in his home state of Georgia. Scientific polls, however, show him in the second tier of candidates, usually even with Gingrich.

Rick Santorum (down): Santorum’s better than expect finish at Ames only briefly translated into news. His poll numbers have stayed in the cellar and his appeal is limited to social conservatives.

Jon Huntsman (even): While he has received a lot of attention from the media, Huntsman hasn’t received more than 4% in any poll taken since he has been in the race and most show him at 1% or 2%.

Gary Johnson, whom I sympathize with greatly, and Thad McCotter are not being included in the power rankings from this point forward.


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