New national numbers released in GOP presidential race

Polls have been flying out like crazy since Rick Perry got into the race for the Republican nomination for president. Gallup and Public Policy Polling have released numbers pairing several different Republicans against President Barack Obama. We also got our first look at post-Ames numbers out of Iowa.

Rasmussen was the first to post numbers showing that Perry had jumped ahead of Romney, but one poll isn’t definitive. But Gallup and Public Policy Polling released new national numbers yesterday in the Republican field showing that Rick Perry is, for all intents and purposes, the new frontrunner.

Here’s the poll from Gallup:

  • Rick Perry: 29%
  • Mitt Romney: 17%
  • Ron Paul: 13%
  • Michele Bachmann: 10%
  • Herman Cain: 4%
  • Newt Gingrich: 4%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 1%
  • Other: 2%
  • No preference: 17%

Public Policy Polling has somewhat different results. Unlike Gallup, they show Bachmann in the top three and Paul in the middle of the pack.

  • Rick Perry: 33%
  • Mitt Romney: 20%
  • Michele Bachmann: 16%
  • Newt Gingrich: 8%
  • Herman Cain: 6%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Rick Santorum: 4%
  • Jon Huntsman: 3%
  • Other/Not sure: 5%

And if Palin runs:

  • Rick Perry: 27%
  • Mitt Romney: 17%
  • Sarah Palin: 13%
  • Michele Bachmann: 10%
  • Newt Gingrich: 7%
  • Herman Cain: 7%
  • Ron Paul: 6%
  • Rick Santorum: 3%
  • Jon Huntsman: 2%
  • Other/Not sure: 7%

As noted yesterday, Bachmann’s bid has been margainlized since Perry got in the race. Her path to the nomination is, well, non-existent at this point - looking specifically at Gallup’s numbers, which I trust more - unless Perry makes some sort of huge gaffe, a serious scandal is uncovered or comes off like Fred Thompson in debates.

Interestingly, Ron Paul has gained enough support to come in third, at least in this poll. If he hasn’t been considered “top tier,” he probably should be at this point, especially if the talking heads and the media are going to continue to continue lumping Bachmann in that class of candidates.

Romney has to be in panic mode right now. I mentioned this yesterday in regards to the Iowa poll, but the conservative candidates (Perry, Paul, Bachmann, Cain and Santorum) make up 59% of the Republican vote in the Gallup poll. More establishment-leaning candidates (Romney, Gingrich and Huntsman) make up only 22%. How can he change things up to appeal to those conservative voters? Standing beside RomneyCare, the blueprint for ObamaCare, isn’t going to do it.


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