Will Obama be a one-term president?
Over at the Politico, Roger Simons makes the case for why Barack Obama will be a one-term president, largely using his remarks on the “Ground Zero Mosque” as an example:
An unidentified chief of staff to a “politically vulnerable House Democrat” told James Hohmann and Maggie Haberman of POLITICO that Obama’s statement “probably alienates a lot of independent voters” and “there are a lot of [Democrats] who are spooked in tough districts today” and “a lot of Republicans licking their chops right now.”
And what’s the point of doing the right thing if your party is going to lose seats because of it?
Maybe Obama is disconnected. After all, as a former professor of constitutional law, he actually knows what the Constitution says.
His opponents have no such fetters. They know what they want the Constitution to say: yes to guns, no to gay marriage and never to mosques close to hallowed ground, though churches and synagogues are OK.
This paragraph is the kicker:
The problem for Obama is that he appears to have taken seriously all the “change” stuff he promised during his campaign. And he has been unable to make the transition from candidate to president.
That has been a reoccuring point here, especially during our podcasts (we’re on an extended break, by the way). Obama has not stopped campaigning since he gave the keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Party convention in Boston. Whether it is ObamaCare or his continuing quest to justify the wasteful stimulus bill.
I would not say that Obama is a one-term president at this point, for two reasons. First, the electorate has a notoriously short attention span. And while something may look like a given right now, such as Obama losing to a “generic Republican” in 2012, it doesn’t mean that it’s going to hold over two years, an eternity in politics.
Secondly, if Republicans can take control of at least one chamber of Congress, which is looking increasingly likely, it would likely cause gridlock that would force Obama to come to the center, much like Clinton was forced to do after the 1994 mid-term election.
In order for the second point to apply, Obama has to actually become a politician, which he has never had to do. He has relied almost solely on speeches, not substance. He is at his weakest when he is forced to be try to be Bill Clinton, and not himself.