United Liberty

The latest generic ballot poll for control of Congress shows Democrats taking the lead over Republicans for November:

Democrats this week have jumped into a 6-percentage-point generic-ballot edge for November’s election, according to a new Gallup Poll.

Forty-nine percent of the 1,535 adults surveyed nationwide said they would prefer to vote for a Democrat to represent their congressional district. Forty-three percent are more likely to vote for a Republican.

Just more than a month ago, Republicans held a 6-point edge over Democrats in the poll.
[…]
Republicans hold a 4-point edge among independents in this week’s poll, 43-39 percent. Just a week before, Republicans led by 14 points. In mid-June, Republicans led 52 percent to 31 percent among independents.

In her analysis, Gallup’s Lydia Saad speculated that the generic-ballot bump for Democrats this past week could be due to the passage of financial reform.

“The financial reform bill is the second-biggest piece of legislation to get through Congress this year, after health care reform, and it enjoyed majority support,” Saad wrote. “According to a USA Today/Gallup poll in June, 55% of Americans were in favor of legislation expanding government regulation of financial institutions — including 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents. Only Republicans were generally opposed.”

The poll surveyed registered voters, which generally skews towards Democrats. However, this is a significant swing and something Republicans may want to pay attention to, instead of measuring the drapes in the House of Representatives.

The red flag for Democrats?:

Gallup polling last week found Republican voters expressing significantly more enthusiasm about voting in the 2010 midterms. The 51% of Republicans saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall is up from 40% the week prior, and is the highest since early April — shortly after passage of healthcare reform. Democratic enthusiasm is unchanged, at 28%.

Here is a look at the chart, which is telling: