United Liberty

It’s hard to say where ObamaCare is going to wind up. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that Democrats will have the votes by the time they bring the bill to the floor. Rep. John Larson (D-CT), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, says they already have the votes.

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), who has been counting votes for the majority, told The Hill that the vote could be put off past Easter (April 4th). House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) shot down both Larson and Clyburn, saying that a vote will come “later in the week.”

To top all of this, President Barack Obama is warning House Democrats that he will not support or campaign for them if they cast a vote against this major part of his domestic agenda. Some Democrats may actually welcome this, as they view their re-election to Congress as more important than Obama’s presidency.

It’s also unclear whether Democrats will use the Slaughter Solution (named after House Rules Chairwoman Louise Slaughter). This rule would deem the Senate version of the health care bill passed up passage of the fixes via reconciliation by the Senate. Such a move could provide political cover during campaigns this fall by giving members in tough re-election bids an excuse to say they didn’t cast a vote for ObamaCare.

The Washington Post editorialized against this idea yesterday:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters Monday that she is leaning toward a parliamentary maneuver under which the House would vote on a package of changes to the Senate-approved reform bill, and the underlying Senate bill would then be “deemed” to have passed, even though the House had never voted on it. That may help some House members dodge a politically difficult decision, but it strikes us as a dodgy way to reform the health-care system. Democrats who vote for the package will be tagged with supporting the Senate bill in any event. Why not be straightforward about it?

Republicans are calling the move unconstitutional, and they have a case. Article 1, Section 7 of the Constitution states that each bill much pass the House and Senate before being signed into law. This is the same argument made in briefs from then-Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Henry Waxman and Rep. Louise Slaughter during a  unsuccessful lawsuit against using the “deem-and-pass” rule to increase the debt ceiling.

As noted, this is not a new rule, however, it has never been used for legislation with such major policy implications. Republicans are promising to force a vote on its use, and they may have some Democratic support in that effort.

What can we say right now? According the count at The Hill, there are 36 Democrats leaning “no” or are firmly against the bill (38 are needed for defeat). This includes eight members that voted for ObamaCare in November. They indicate that 55 members are sitting on the fence right now. However, the leftists at Fire Dog Lake count 190 for the bill and 206 against (205 to 209 with leaners).

Separately, CNN reports that only 11 votes are needed to defeat ObamaCare. So no matter what estimates you are reading, it’s going to be a close vote.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who has been a “no” vote because he favors a single-payer system, will switch. He held a press conference this morning to announce his vote.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), who is voting against the bill because he feels it provides for taxpayer-funded abortions, believes that Democratic leaders are still short on votes. Other outlets have indicated that they were at least ten votes short.

Polling still indicates that Americans are still against ObamaCare. A survey sponsored by MSNBC and the Wall Street Journal shows a plurality of voters are against the bill:

The survey found that opinions have solidified around the health-care plan, with 48% calling it a “bad idea” and 36% viewing it as a “good idea” when presented with a choice between those two. That gap is consistent with surveys dating to the fall.

Polling in ten battleground districts held by Democrats across the country, all of whom are considered to be on the fence, indicates that voters oppose ObamaCare by large margins (you can those margins here). It’s clear this vote may well end some members careers if they choose to back an unpopular piece of legislation that will have such a huge impact on constituents lives.

Here’s my prediction: I really do hope I am wrong, but I’m convinced that Democratic leaders and President Obama will be able to twist enough arms to get the bill passed by the end of the weekend.