United Liberty
Rand Paul Has Kentucky Senate Election In The Bag
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 4:24pm | posted by David Carlson
Rand Paul is the next Senator of Kentucky. The election is all but wrapped up.
Most people will immediately respond that it is way too early to make such a statement; how can we possibly know what will happen over the next nine to ten months? I will concede the point that we can never be sure how an election will turn out ten months before the vote, but all evidence points towards a Rand Paul win come November.
1) Polling
Rand has seen meteoric rise in the polls over the past five months. He went from losing 26-37 in August to establishment pick Trey Grayson, to leading Grayson 44-25 in December. Also, while he was picking up this lead there was an increasing number of undecided voters from 17% in August to 32% in December. The momentum is clearly on Rand Paul’s side.
2) Campaign
From the beginning Rand has arguably run a stronger campaign. Despite never being elected to office in Kentucky, Paul had the advantage of being Congressman Ron Paul’s son. This allowed him to make his announcement on national television that he would be running for Senate. While Trey Grayson attacked this as an example of how Paul was an “outsider” to Kentucky, the famous comeback by Paul swung this war of words in his favor, “I’ve been a Kentuckian longer than Grayson’s been a Republican!”
3) Fundraising
After accusing Paul of being an outsider, Grayson made what some would call his fatal mistake in the campaign: host a $500 per plate fundraiser in Washington, D.C. where 17 of 23 Republican Senators in attendance voted for the bank bailout. Paul railed on the bank bailout from the beginning, and this fund raiser invigorated supporters of Paul who raised over $1 million in the third quarter, dwarfing Grayson’s $642,800.
4) Tea Party Candidate
The one major thing Rand Paul has done that has allowed him to surge in the Kentucky Senate Campaign is distinguish himself as a Tea Party Candidate. This goes back to Grayson’s “Bailout” fundraiser. At Fancy Farm, a major political event in Kentucky, Rand railed on the bailout bill. Between Rand’s public opposition to the bailout and Grayson’s support of bailout-voting Senators, Rand is clearly embodying the Tea Party image. Along with his fiscal conservatism and general belief in small government, Paul truly has become the “Tea Party” candidate in this Senate Race.
5) Kentucky Favors Republicans
Kentucky has two Republican Senators and overwhelmingly went for McCain in the 2008 election. 2010 will not be an easy year for Democrats, and Rand is polling 14% above Daniel Mongiardo and 8% above Jack Conway. Though these are not “blow out” totals, he has consistently gained against these two candidates. Perhaps I am not giving them nearly enough credit, but both candidates will need to spend more money as the Democratic Primary is much closer with only recently (in the last poll) Conway passing Mongiardo. As I said, unless Democrats have a major turnaround before November, the “Tea Party” Republican candidate is all but certain to win the election.
If the Paul campaign continues to campaign as hard as they have the past six months and reinforce Paul’s conservative values, I think this campaign is all but decided.
Might it also be claimed that his recent remarks on Afghanistan have endeared him to the GOP base in Ky.? Maybe a lil?
Long way to go on this one. I’d say if you think Rand has the stronger campaign, now is the time to spread the word to more people who might be willing to contribute a few dollars and to ask others to do the same. The hallmark of a successful campaign is that it keeps working like it is losing until the morning after the election. In Kentucky this year, that means May 19 for the primary.
David,
We would be happy to interview Dr. Paul for the “Liberty Candidate” series of our podcast. (my contact info is at the bottom of the page)
Brett
I think a podcast with Rand would be a big hit!
David,
I figured you would have a “realistic” outlook but one reason I truly believe Rand will win is because he’s got a great staff (yourself included) working tirelessly. And you guys haven’t let up! It’s as if Grayson’s campaign never really “got going.”
Rand needs to focus on addressing the false accusations of
Bill Johnson and his neocon-theocon jamboree.
They are slamming libertarianism as being ‘unconservative’ ROFLMAO!!!
That coming from a neocon is HILARIOUS!!!
as is their false accusation that libertarianism ‘is an immoral philosophy’ ROFLMAO!!!
Why am I laughing so hard?
Heres the ‘morality’ of those guys (The neocons): ‘the ends justify the means’ ‘might makes right’ ‘to defeat the devil you must become the devil’ or the theocons ‘Its governments job to usurp church authority’
(say what a marriage is, say what a ‘real’ curch is, etc’
or ‘Its governments job to enforce church laws on morality’
Instead of focusing on ‘the man in the mirror’ theocons feel it is their job to force OTHER people not to sin. Using the big stick of government to force people into submission and bend them to their will. (What they think Gods will is for others) Religious right folks think thats ‘acting christian’
Thats not acting like a Christian! Thats acting like the taliban!
Sadly, there are too many religious right people out there who claim to be moral, but advocate immorality towards others (manipulating them, meddling in their affairs, robbing them of God Granted autonomy and Rights by way of laws and government, etc.)
Rand needs to explain his views on issues such as
drugs, gambling, etc. (all those issues that fall under the category of
‘victimless crimes’ and ‘individual sins’) and why libertarians see them as being under the ‘churches sphere of authority’
NOT the governments.
He needs to ask those folks like Bill Johnson something like, ‘Do you want to codify ALL Bible law into civil law? And If not, what is your unarbitrary criteria
for which laws are codified and which ones arent?’
(With the possibility of the ‘stoning of adulterers’ law being codified into civil law you would think some of the religious right people would be scared to push for it out of fear of running afoul of their own hypocrisy!) lolol
Or ‘whos job is it to enforce morals church or state?’
Or ‘who has the ultimate authority in recognizing Marriage?’
If Bill Johnson says ‘The state’ he is putting the state in control of church autonomy.
If he says ‘the church’ then he is saying that the libertarian view is correct!
Rand needs to carefully address the wrong ideas and misinformation that the Bill Johnsons and their supporters keep spouting.
He needs to point out specifically why his own views are congruent with the Bible and how many of the views that the religious right
have wrongly labeled ‘conservative’ are actually Unbiblical as well as unethical and immoral. (The whole ‘pro-war for any and every reason’ and the whole ‘apologetics for torture as a christian value’ and all that other neocon garbage that the religious right folks mainline all too often)
He needs to explain how and why libertarianism is indeed a moral philosophy as compared to the moral relativism, lawlessness, and Machiavellian wickedness of neoconservative philosophy.
Rand needs to address these issues to stop a Johnson ‘sneak victory’
By addressing why he believes as he does in a logical manner he can educate and inform as well as nullify the smears of the Bill Johnsons.
Here is proof that Rand Paul must address this issue.
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/125499
This article explains exactly why Rand should focus on the
attacks of the ‘also rans’ Why? Because they are the ones
who will sneak up from behind while he is focused on the lead
competition.
The main issue he needs to address is why many of the religious right leaders today are no friends to individual liberty. And expose their philosophy of state-churches (how many of them secretly want government to control all churches with them at the helm of government and with their own doctrines dominating all other churches and groups.) They want to mix state and church into a mishmash.
What they are really enabling however is a secular state religion.
Rand must address how and why their authoritarian attitudes and
their lust to use the state as a means to force changes in an individuals behavior is antithetical to the views of our Founders.
He also needs to point out that it is unbiblical to force others to behave the way you want them to. How we have laws that prevent individuals from ‘punishing’ other individuals who do not act as they think others should act. He should point out that its just as bad when such people abuse the power of government, and get government to do their dirty work for them. How its both immoral and an affront to human Rights.
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