It’s Election Day. Polls are open. You can make a difference.

Election Day 2014

The polls are open on the East Coast and will soon be open across the nation, as voters likely decide to send even more Republicans to the House and give Mitch McConnell the Republican majority he needs to pass the jobs bills that have languished on Harry Reid’s desk since Republicans took the House in 2011.

Real Clear Politics gives Republicans a baseline 226 seats in the House to the Democrats’ 179 seat baseline with 30 “toss up” races. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts Republicans win 243 seats in the House, a net gain of nine seats.

In the Senate, Sabato believes Republicans will net eight seats, taking a 53-47 majority. Sabato predicts Louisiana and Georgia’s run-off will result in Republican victories in December and January, respectively, and that Republican Pat Roberts will hold on against Independent Greg Orman in Kansas.

But if you think Washington will maintain its track record of gridlock (and it probably with with Obama still in the White House), then you should turn your focus to gubernatorial and state legislative races.

In gubernatorial contests, Sabato believes Republicans will lose a net of three seats — Florida, Kansas (Brownback), Alaska, Pennsylvania, and Maine — picking up Arkansas and Massachusetts.

A Washington Post report predicts big wins for Republicans in State House and State Senate chambers.

From a report last week:

My forecast for the 2014 state legislative elections indicate that the Democrats will lose majorities in five state Senates and nine state Houses. Those state Senates are Colorado, Iowa, Maine, New York and Washington, while the state Houses are Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Washington and West Virginia.

Forecasts were generated from analyses of the 77,844 contested state legislative elections that occurred between 1968 and 2012. National conditions such as the state of the economy, presidential approval, midterm penalty, Congressional vote intention  have a large effect on state legislative elections and work against the Democrats this year. The forecast also took account of factors specific to individual races, such as incumbency and prior vote in the district. This table has all forecasts at the state legislative chamber level.

Forty-five states will have elections to their state legislatures this coming Tuesday, although four of those states do not have elections to their state Senates (not including special elections). Democrats are likely to lose seats in most states. The only gains are forecast to come in the Oregon, North Dakota, and Rhode Island State Senates, as well as the North Dakota House. West Virginia is forecast to see especially large losses for the Democrats in both of its chambers. Other states will see losses for the Democrats of over 10 percent, including the California Senate, the Nevada House, and both chambers of the Maine legislature.

State legislatures are where most of the legislative work gets done. John Oliver, host of HBO’s Last Week Tonight, took a humorous look at legislative races over the weekend.

Americans for Tax Reform is also following ballot measures in seven states.

Today’s a big day. Every vote in every state matters. Make sure your voice is heard.


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