Fire Harry Reid: New polls show Republicans winning the majority in the Senate

A round of new polling released on Sunday shows that Republican candidates have the edge in enough Senate races to take the majority in the upper chamber in the 2014 mid-term election and then some.

The poll was conducted by YouGov in coordination with CBS News and The New York Times finds that Republicans would win the eight Senate seats, handing them a 53-seat majority. The Upshot notes that, based on the new round of polling, Republicans have a 60 percent chance of taking control of the chamber.

Here’s a look at the most relevant races:

State Democrat

Poll

Republican Poll Result
Alaska Mark Begich 47% Mead Treadwell* 45% Dem hold
Alaska Mark Begich 49% Dan Sullivan* 37% Dem hold
Arkansas Mark Pryor 46% Tom Cotton 50% GOP pick-up
Colorado Mark Udall 50% Mark Gardner 47% Dem hold
Kentucky Allison Grimes 46% Mitch McConnell 50% GOP hold
Georgia Michelle Nunn 44% David Perdue 50% GOP hold
Iowa Bruce Braley 47% Joni Ernest 48% GOP pick-up
Louisiana Mary Landrieu 46% Bill Cassidy 47% GOP pick-up
Michigan Gary Peters 47% Teri Land 48% GOP pick-up
Montana John Walsh 40% Steve Daines 56% GOP pick-up
North Carolina Kay Hagan 47% Thom Tillis 48% GOP pick-up
South Dakota Rick Weiland 34% Mike Rounds 61% GOP pick-up
West Virginia Natalie Tennant 43% Shelley Moore Capito 51% GOP pick-up

Incumbents have been italicized. The Republicans in the Alaska Senate race have an asterisk (*) beside their names because the party primaries in that state won’t take place until August 26.

So, obviously, there are a couple things to point out about these poll results. First, the races in four states are very, very close. Republican candidates lead by only 1-point in Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina.

Secondly, the numbers come from online polls. With that said, however, YouGov was among the better pollsters in the 2012 election, so, unlike Zogby polls, these numbers are coming from a good source.

Finally, YouGov didn’t really take into account the prescence of third-party candidates, which could be a problem, likely for Republicans, in some of these races.

Now, one can’t take any of this to the bank because, as noted above, things are still very close in several of the states. In short, there’s still a long way to go if the GOP hopes to boot Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) from his post. But Republicans appear to be on stable ground heading into the August recess and it appears that Democrats overtures to voters in many of these states aren’t working that well — at least not yet.


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