Republicans cry foul at swing state polls

Yesterday wasn’t a good day for Mitt Romney’s campaign. Polls conducted CBS, The New York Times, and Quinnipiac showing his campaign trailing in three must-win, swing states, meaning that an Electoral College victory remains out of reach. Others have noted that the polls don’t make much sense because — in Virginia, for example — Romney leads among independents by such a wide margin.

Ed Morrissey also points out that enthusiasm is on the side of Republicans in the CBS/NYT/Qunnipiac poll, which he says spells bad news for Obama. With enthusiasm on their side and signs pointing to voter turnout being down this year, Republicans could squeek out an expected victory. But with the campaigns concentrating on their ground games in states like Ohio and Virginia, it’s hard to see how voter turnout won’t be up at least in those states.

Another point worth noting is what Gallup is showing in their look at the makeup of the electorate this year. As far as demographic go, the 2012 electorate looks like that of four years ago. However, more Republicans are in the mix — a sign of that enthusiasm advantage, which leads Conn Carroll of the Washington Examiner to say, “[I]f Gallup is right about the 2012 electorate looking a lot like the 2008 electorate, then Romney should win convincingly next Tuesday.”

Meanwhile, David Alexrod, Obama’s chief strategist, is having an hard time explaining why Romney is doing so much better among independents, hinting that more conservatives are identifying themselves as indpendents, which seems to the line du jour among Democrats.

While Republicans have to be optimistic, they should also prepare for the worst. Nick Gillespie points to two reasons Republicans should brace themselves for a Romney loss next week.


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