United Liberty
Why the new CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls are meaningless
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 3:00pm | posted by Christopher Barron
I am not a poll truther, indeed when Romney was trailing in the polls and the trendline for him was bad in September, I warned conservatives to take those polls seriously and stop trying to claim that every poll was part of some secret plot to undermine Romney. That having been said, someone needs to explain to me how — according to the new NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll — Romney leads among independents in Virginia by 21 points but is somehow losing the state to Obama by 1 point. Is there a single sober person who has a turnout model for Virginia that would allow Obama to overcome a 21-point deficit among independents? I don’t think so. If Romney wins indies by 21 points on election night, he carries VA by 5 points.
In 2008, independents made up 27% of the Virginia electorate and Obama won them by 1 point en route to a 6 point win. NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac says Romney leads by 21 points among independents in Virginia today. Yet, somehow their poll shows Obama actually ahead in Virginia by 1 point. For the sake of argument, lets just pretend 2008 turnout turnout model, a model most analysts believe overstates Obama’s numbers, is the turnout model for Virginia in 2012. Even by the 2008 turnout model Obama simply can not lose independents by 21 points and win the state.
Its not just Virginia, in Ohio the Quinnipiac poll shows Romney ahead among indies by 6 but losing the state by 5 points. Again, if you assume the 2008 turnout model - the most advantageous to Obama as humanly possible - this simply defies logic. Obama won independents in Ohio in 2008 by 8 points, independents made up 30% of the Ohio electorate in 2008. If Romney leads independents in Ohio by 6 points, and even assuming the 2008 Obama super turnout model, how in God’s name is Romney losing by 5 points? Simply put, it is not possible.
I am not a tin foil hat libertarian, I don’t believe that everything is part of some vast conspiracy, and that includes these polls. What I do believe, however, is that these polls are at odds with themselves and with any reasonable turnout model for this election. I question any media outlet that puts faith in a poll that includes such huge internal contradictions and that isn’t based on any plausible turnout model.
I don’t know whether Obama or Romney is ahead for sure in Ohio, though I suspect Obama has a slight lead. I don’t know whether Obama or Romney is ahead for sure in Virginia, though I suspect Romney has a slight lead. What I do know for sure and with 100% certainty is that the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls don’t give us any idea of who is ahead in either state.
One of the reasons that you’re seeing Romney soaring among “Independents” but still trailing in the polls is because self-identified Republicans have started identifying themselves as “Independents”.
Check out this chart and and you’ll see what I mean:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-party-identificatio…
Doug M. is correct. Your premise here is that party ID hasn’t changed at all since 2008, and it obviously has, with a substantial shift to R voters calling themselves independents in greater numbers.
This is the thing that I don’t think people realize. Party ID is very fluid and it’s impossible to determine what the right numbers are. That’s why most pollsters do not weight for Party ID
Once again, the next US presidential election will be fixed. Mitt Romney will be elected even though Barack Obama would have received more votes in the 2012 election. The political assassination will be perpetrated by Bush hiding behind Crossroads GPS, the most influential group of Neocons.
The Neocons will have Mitt Romney elected to first use him and then let him fall easy prey. All blames and responsibilities will fall on the new Mormon president for the events already planned.
The new World War of Religion is already a done deal behind the backs of all people to bring chaos and poverty and to favor in the end one New World Order.
Soon you will see revolutions everywhere.
Entire populations will be first reduced to poverty and then pitted one against the other until exhausted they will accept to live submitting to new rules in a World dressed in chains.
The lack of effective governments will set the stage for one World Tyranny
It will be just from chaos that one voice will rise with the promise to fix all and everyone. That will be the forked tongue of the New World Order
One Solution once it happens.
http://www.wavevolution.org
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